Jay Weber Show transcript 8-13-25
It’s another day...and gee...
It’s another entry for the ‘Trump is going to win nearly all of these lawsuits eventually’ file.
Yesterday’s win?Yes, Trump’s doge tea, Trump’sess to sensitive government data. It’s the sort of material and information they need to smartly and effectively ‘downsize’ the federal government.
It’s the reason that I’ve been giving you from the very beginning on why the left was going to lose most of these lawsuits: because they were being filed out of anger....and amid temper tantrums....
They weren’t being filed based on any genuine legal justification or violation. I’m not even a lawyer-and I knew this would be the case.
The fourth circuit here is saying these unions never even had the ‘standing to sue’. They brought an illegitimate lawsuit.
And for the record, the one dissenting judge? Primarily he did so because he thought it might be prudent to block access to that data -at least until the court case played out-
So even that judge assumed the unions were going to lose the case but didn’t feel the need to basically ‘decide it’ at the appeals court level- for the lower court.
Which is what this ruling does.
Bottom line: the feckless leftists who are in a perpetual rage against trump- lose again.
Their opposition and venom are all ‘impotent rage’ and nothing more.
And so far?- this even ‘holds up’ when it comes to trump’s tariffs and inflation.
I’m not going to blanketly suggest that trump’s tariffs aren’t going to lead to some higher prices in some areas. They will.
And I’m not going to blanketly declare that the president has successfully imposed tariffs on the rest of the world just a few days after they’ve taken effect. We don’t know what the long-term effects of these tariffs are going to be on the u-s or global economy.
But what am I willing to say- is that so far? All of Trump’s critics have been wrong in their criticisms so far.
July’s consumer price index report -the inflation report-came out yesterday morning, and inflation was basically flat from June to July...and only went up about 2.7 percent year-to-year.
It'd be great if that year-to-year inflation rate was even lower. I’d love to see this dip under two percent where it was during trump’s first term-and then stay there....
But once again, the July inflation numbers came in lower than the so-called experts predicted...and when it came to the month-to-month ‘cost of living’.... even CNN’s analyst couldn’t hide her enthusiasm about the fact that- month to month?- prices were basically unchanged, with the inflation rate rising only point-two percent.
This is proof that-so far? - Trump’s tariffs haven’t had a major impact on inflation. Period.
Now-
Full disclosure- Jerome Powell and the fed look at a slightly different formula: they watch the so-called ‘core inflation rate’...which excludes grocery and gas prices-
And that formula showed year-to-year inflation at 3.1 percent in July. That’s slightly higher than they’d like to see it...and slightly higher than in June. That’s a sign that some companies are probably starting to pass along the tariff prices to consumers...
And even that blip up might be enough for Powell and the fed to refuse to cut interest rates in September, too, even though most analysts have been expecting it.
We’ll just have to wait and see.
But this report was positive enough to send the markets up significantly yesterday. So, investors liked what they saw.
US consumers are going to have to absorb at least some of those extra costs...and that is going to affect the economy as those increases are passed along.
The big question is ‘how much market disruption’ they do. How much do they disrupt consumer spending...or product pricing...etc.
And so far, -it hasn’t been much. We’ll take the temporary win.
Trump’s spokeswoman, Karoline Leavitt, basically labeled anyone who’s worried about ‘basic economic principals’ kicking in here, as
‘Panic-ans’...and strategically? I think that’s stupid if some new inflation is kicked off because of this...
But she posted after this positive CPI report:
And she’s right about the small business optimism- real wages rising-and rising above the rate of any new inflation.
Yes, the basics of this economy are quite positive right now, and the people investing in the markets are proving it.
And whether this report makes it-more? – or less likely that we finally get a rate cut in September- depends on the perspective of the analyst.
It seems like a good time to say it again: only about eleven percent of the goods we will be buying will be subject to these new tariff increases. If you buy an ‘American made’ washing machine, you won’t be paying more for it. If you buy a foreign one, you will.
If you buy goods that are grown and produced here in America- none of these tariffs will affect the prices on any of those goods. Not unless the manufacturer has to buy materials or parts from foreign countries.
My point is: the media’s accounts on this all pretend as if ‘every product’ is going to become more expensive because of trump’s tariffs...when the reality is.... most products won’t.
Folks. Most. Most. Product prices will not go up because of trump’s new tariff schedule. And that’s why I don’t see a huge, wider, economy shocking’ splash coming here, or down the road, because of them.
I think virtually all of this is being overblown to some extent....and most of our so-called ‘experts’ are still either ‘panicking’ or ‘over-selling’ the effects of these tariffs on consumers.
We know that most of them want Trump to fail. That’s part of the alarmism. But we also know that many of them have been following ‘free market principals’ and beliefs for decades....and are therefore ‘overreacting’ or raising way too many alarms...over what the ‘actual, real world’ effects of these tariffs are going to be.
The most important thing about Trump’s tariff wars....is that there were no wars.
Honestly, people: if trump’s moves would have touched off ‘tit for tat’ escalations with these other countries and our most important trade partners- then yeah-we’d be screwed. Prices would have skyrocketed on all sorts of foreign goods and foreign materials and parts...yes.
It's a significant win for trump, personally, that the vast majority of our trading partners just decided to meekly sit there and accept the higher tariffs- because they want continued access to the u-s markets.
This also ensures that most of any price increase that we-do see- as consumers and manufacturers ‘buying foreign materials’...will only result in a ‘one time’ price increase.
There are some fundamental changes here that -do indicate- that we are finally moving away from some of the biggest reasons that prices kept rocketing up and up and up during the Biden era.
If energy prices stay low or drop further-that means grocery and delivery prices will level off and/or continue to drop.
That’s a good thing. Rent prices-as you heard-have largely stabilized. That’s a good thing.
Car prices have largely stabilized. That’s a good thing.
Meanwhile- the items whose prices are still going up are mostly things most of us don’t need to buy- or only need to buy ‘once’. Like...new furniture...new appliances...etc. You aren’t buying a new couch or a new fridge every week. Or month. Or even year.
So, the tariff hikes on those things aren’t going to be some terrible shock to your family budget.
Bottom line?, most of President Trump’s policies and the ‘new, more optimistic era’ we are in- are- finally starting to positively impact our wallets and pocketbooks.
photo credit: Getty Images
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