Jay Weber Show transcript 7-16-25
I’m guessing that many of you saw the alarmist take on the consumer inflation rate ticking up slightly-
Man- was that story spun incorrectly-and intentionally-by the Trump-hating media.
Folks-
Core CPI is still down where the fed members say they like it- and this generic inflation report that came out yesterday was actually- better than the analysts were expecting-
And so even with Trump’s tariffs finally starting to be reflected a bit in the numbers.... his was a smaller increase in prices that Jerome Powell and the fed have been worried about- and that the so-called experts were predicting.
Look-i hate how Trump is jerking us-and other countries around-with his little ‘trade antics’...but...so far, the doom and gloom that they are supposed to be bringing about- if you listen to the ‘smart people’- simply isn’t occurring.
And the most important reason might be that-in truth? - we only import about eleven percent of our goods...and so...even if there are higher taxes or ‘new tariffs’ on those imported goods...they aren’t going to send prices.... or the economy...into a tailspin.
Some conservative analysts were trying to explain this back in April as Trump started to rattle this tariff saber for the first time-
And other skeptics are starting to realize this now.
In fact, Home Depot founder Ken Langone was on CNBC yesterday-and shocked the business world by admitting- I wasn’t a Trump fan-but I am now
Trump seems to know what he’s doing-and no-his tariffs are not railroading the economy into a recession.
Moreover, they aren’t ‘inflation’.
These tariffs are a ‘one time hike’ on the products trump is imposing them on- so it’s not even correct to call them ‘inflationary’.
Understand?
Yes, they are a price hike...but no... they aren’t going to fluctuate or ‘grow worse’ moving forward like Biden’s inflation did.
These tariffs are a one-time price hit. Not four years of runaway price hikes of the sort that Joe Biden and the democrats stupidly imposed on us-
And yes-
There’s a difference.
I’m a free trader. I’m not a big fan of tariffs. But much of the doom and gloom talk has been overblown. For June....inflation was 2.7 percent. Big whoop. That’s about where it’s been for a year.
Well, I’d take it right back to the point that: only eleven percent of the goods we buy are imported. Put another way: only one of every ten products that we are buying is going to be subject to a new tax tariff - if that-
So- it’s not going to lead to economic catastrophe.
What’s been happening here -is that the democrats and DC and New York insiders have been rooting for an economic collapse under trump.
That is- genuinely-what has been happening here since April: they really, really, want to see the country slide into a recession and see hard times-because it’s the best way to have voters ‘turn off’ to trump and vote democrat again next fall and in 2028.
Their quiet rooting for the country to fail-is what’s clouded and shaded their ‘expert opinions’ on Trump’s economic strategies.
That’s what’s really going on here-and why do they keep getting things so wrong.
Yesterday I had a piece that included a democratic strategist saying-we really need to root for a recession here.... because it’s the only way we’ll stop trump.
This was part of a political piece. Not an economic one. We were talking about how the dems are still wandering in the political wilderness seven months after their November defeat-
But that quote leapt out at me- as a rare moment of truth from a democrat insider.
I don’t have it in the stack today. But it was blunt, and honest: look...our party is so lost and fractured that nothing’s going to stop trump and the republican’s short term. If we want to have any real chance of raking good wins next fall- we really need a recession. Trump’s economies got tanked.
That’s what this insider was saying- and it just happens to illustrate perfectly-what’s been going on Wall Street, and K-street, and in all these east-coast, trump-hating financial houses: their so-called analysts are rooting for trump failure...so they are going to ‘see failure’ in every move trump makes.
Ooh...dude... That’s going to cause a recession. Dude. Really. He’s thanking the economy.
No. He’s not.
Again- I’m not a tariff guy-but- wasn’t it a nice surprise to hear that-for the first time in forever- we saw a budget surplus in June.
Wow. And it was due largely to Trump’s tariffs.
Senator John Barrasso of Wyoming was on NBC this Sunday....and responded to a snotty Kristen Welker-this way.
photo credit: Getty Images
audio version of the segment here > The inflation report was better than predicted