Jay Weber Show transcript 5-5-25
So... the Dow rallied 600 points on Friday and ended a nine-day run of positive trading days?
This isn’t-at all- the way this was supposed to go, according to the democrats and the east coast financial experts.
You might have missed the commerce department’s unexpected, good news on Friday:
Okay...so there was a slight decline in orders for ‘short usage’ goods...but this is a very positive number...given how Americans were told to expect nothing but gloom and doom since trump announced his tariff plan on April second.
And that was just one ‘unexpectedly good’ economic report last week-in the wake of a bad GDP report that we all said ‘looked worse’ that it was.... given how current events and trump changes had negatively affected the formula.
GDP is just a ‘measure of the economy’ based on a formula....and ‘one-time actions’.... that screw up the formula are going to make that measure ‘useless’ for that month.Or that quarter.
More and more-it looks like that decline in GDP-was in fact- a bad measure of what’s really going on in the economy since trump took over.
Last week- economists were surprised when 177 thousand new jobs were added in March. That was a much better figure than predicted...and by the way...those jobs were in the private sector...not government hiring...which, in the Biden era, always seemed to be ‘boosting’ their figures.
Under Biden...the private sector economy always seemed to add lower paying and ‘part time’ jobs...and a glut of government jobs that made the numbers look better.
Well, government jobs are a ‘drag’ on the economy, not a booster of the economy. In general, govt workers don’t ‘produce things. They don’t add to the economy. They just represent a bigger burden on the taxpayers who must pick up their pay and benefits, correct?
That doesn’t mean they aren’t doing valuable work...but...getting excited about ‘govt jobs added’ is silly. They aren’t positive for the economy.
And so- we’ve got doge and Trump cutting federal workers right now...and state and local governments not really doing much hiring.... which means.... virtually all of these ‘new jobs created’.... are jobs that can be celebrated.
The so-called experts expected to see 133-thousand jobs added in March....and expected to see hiring slow in the wake of trump’s tariffs....and instead...it was 177 thousand.
This had CNN’s economic analyst crediting the American people. And saying...this jobs market is just relentless. This just isn’t the normal reaction we’d expect:
What it is-is: most business leaders and CEOs expect that president trump is using the tariff threats as a negotiating ploy to get us ‘closer to zero’ on most of our major trade deals.
The lefty media wants to characterize this as ‘trump blinking’. Trump’s going to blink. Trump’s going to chicken out and back off.
No. This is Trump ‘negotiating’. No one has been taking America seriously when our leaders say we are getting screwed on trade and need to deal with the imbalances-
And so-this was President Trump rattling their teeth...in other countries. Getting their attention.
JD Vance was on with Bret Baier last week- who asked him about the GDP contraction, and I thought he had a strong answer.
And yes, the trump maneuvers here have created some economic headwinds that we Americans didn’t think we’d be dealing with-
But- the US economy and US businesses are pushing forward, anyway. Good.
Employers are still hiring. The unemployment rate is still low and holding steady at 4-2 percent. The stock market has rallied sharply after the shocking seven-thousand-point drop.
All-things-considered.... Things look pretty good.
Oh-and by the way:despite their huffing and chuffing and denials.... The Chi-Coms know they are losing this tariff war and are already retreating.
The NY Post highlights that-even as Xi Jinping is running a public relations campaign across China insisting that ‘he will never back down...and never give in to American bullying’...
He’s got envoy quietly working to see how he can ‘back down’ and still save face.
Secret talks between the two sides are apparently underway.
Xi Jinping doesn’t’ particularly care ‘how this looks’ in America. He cares how it looks in China. And remember- he can control all of the information in China. The Chinese people don’t even get ‘the real internet’, people.
They get the communist govt’s version of the internet. They literally control all information.
And so XI doesn’t have to worry about how any new trade deal looks to the American people or the western world...
But he does need to care about how it looks to the rest of the globe- whose leaders China wants to ingratiate themselves to, form alliances, and do business.... and....he needs to be able to sell it to is own people- back in China- as a great victory over a pathetic and weak America.
That’s that the Chi-Coms are going for, here.
Still- news from the outside world-does- seep into China, and so, Xi Jinping and his government are taking a gamble here...by grandstanding on tariffs at home while caving on them in secret negotiations.
But he’s got little choice.
As we’ve talked about China ships five times more stuff- our way- than we ship their way.
Moreover- they are shipping cheap crap our way...in general... As we ship quality products their way. Also...they already have high tariffs on our goods....and so...for generations. It’s been nearly impossible to buy anything ‘American’ over there...or afford anything ‘American’ even if it was for sale.
If you think a Harley is expensive here.... go and pay double or triple for it...in China.
And so, in so many ways-this is a ‘one sided’ equation, here: either China reduces its tariffs on our goods...or we jack up the tariffs on theirs....and deal an incredible blow to their economy.
Several estimates suggest that if trump’s current tariffs remain in place.... The Chinese economy will lose ten million jobs over the next few weeks.
Imagine the anger that is building now.
Social unrest is a growing possibility of Xi doesn’t’ work this out.
And his govt must know it.
It’s why they are continuing to bluster and bloviate in public about how they are ‘winning’ this tariff showdown. It might take some short-term pain for the Chinese people, is how they will spin it, but by God, we will not back down and ultimately, we will prevail.
It's far easier to sell that-in China- where they control the media.
So, their negotiators can ‘cave’ in Korea...during the secret talks...then go back home and insist they won.
Whatever.
We, on our side of the ocean and on our side of the ideological divide, don’t particularly care what Xi Jinping’s machinations are...in all of this. We just want fair, modern trade deals.
Held. If his regime is overthrown because he won’t give in? - that’d be even better for us and probably for the Chinese people...so...whatever.
photo credit: Getty Images
audio version segment here > The left not happy with a positive economy