Jay Weber Show transcript 4-10-25
So- the twist on president Trump’s tariffs was ‘fun’ yesterday, wasn’t it?
I got to say: it makes my theory about how ‘this is really all about China’ look pretty good, doesn’t it?
In what was pure coincidence- I spent part of the show yesterday telling listeners what this whole tariff gambit was starting to ‘look like’ to me.
And I’m sure I was ‘ahead of moss. But also ‘late to the party’ with others.... who might have had this figured out earlier-
But- my take was: I’m now convinced that this entire realignment in global trade relationships was really ‘all about harming China economically...while pretending it’s not Trump’s ‘only target’.
Coming into office, Trump and his team realized that they were going to have to have to have an ugly ‘economic showdown’ with China...to try to avoid an even uglier ‘military showdown’ later.
Trump’s trying to soften and weaken China before xi Jinping moves against Taiwan and the US military must get involved.
And so, Trump knows he needs to deal with China and weaken them, economically, while strengthening our most important industries related to national security: steel, manufacturing, vehicles, semiconductors...etc.
Trump has also complained- for decades- that Americans are getting screwed in a major way by virtually all of our top trading partners- and globalism has ultimately harmed America.
And so- why not two kill birds with one stone?
If we are going to engage in a disruptive trade war with China- why not try to ‘reset trade’ globally...
Which also has the effect of making it look like this action isn’t just ‘all about China’. When it really is.
That’s my theory.
Well-it’s a much stronger theory now, today, based on what Trump did- midday yesterday.
He suddenly pivoted and said: all looming tariffs will be paused for 90 days......and for the 75 countries and trading partners who have stepped up to negotiate better trade deals- I will lower all tariff rates to that ten percent floor I’ve been talking about- and- negotiations will start on fairer long-term trade deals for America.
But for China: whose leaders pushed back and ratcheted up and ratcheted up. You will be treated differently and will see a 125 percent tariff on all your imports.
Oof.
And this came just minutes, or hours, after xi Jinping made his third or fourth ‘countermove’ over 48 hours and said- we’re slapping an 85 percent tariff on u-s goods and won’t relent.
It was either minutes or hours later that trump dropped the hammer...and ‘either by coincidence or by design’... Jinping played right into it.
Oof.
Trump attributed the pause...and his ‘generosity’...to the fact that over 75 countries stepped up to do the right thing (in his mind) rather than get nasty and escalate.
Well- boom.
Everything flips.Every narrative of the last few days is suddenly ‘invalid’.... and the stock market has started to soar.
Suddenly every crumbly conservative economist and Trump naysayer is singing his praises and calling him brilliant. A brilliant tactician.
180 was remarkable on the cable news channels.
And it was a brilliant move: trump has isolated China with 125 percent tariffs while rattling the rest of the world’s leaders into negotiating. They’ll feel relieved. The market investors will feel relieved. Xi Jinping is the only one who won’t feel relieved.
It was a brilliant flip.
And look-of course. Of course. The Trump haters and they leftists will spin narratives about how this was just Trump caving. This was capitulation because the markets were so spooked, and he was losing control...etc.
Of course, they are going to try to sell that version of events. And we don’t know what happened behind the scenes- but Trump insiders are saying that ‘no, this was the legitimate play that trump was setting up. He wasn’t ‘frightened’ or ‘convinced’ to back down yesterday. He, instead, spent the last few days calling advisors and gathering their input. Strategizing it all out. And then took what he considered the best advice.
Listen to Larry Kudlow-who is one of those insiders. Kudlow was trump’s main guy on the economy in term one. He remains a white house advisor-and it sounds like ole’ Larry was part of the larger ‘trump brain-trust here’ as the president went looking for advice...
And Kudlow learned-in real time- sitting on the set of fox business channel- that trump was springing the trap.
So, this leads to an immediate- robust- six percent leap in the stock market...as investors watch it happen in ‘real time’....and hopefully. The worst of the market turmoil related to the so-called trump tariff wars is over.
Bill Ackman-the billionaire hedge fund manager who was a big supporter of trumps in 2024- who has been skeptical of the tariffs and said.... like the rest of us...I hope it doesn’t push us into a recession. This isn’t very smart-
He did a total of 180 yesterday afternoon
That’s an interesting change in tone from
Ackman-and he may or may not have been one of those ‘inside advisors’ who have been giving trump advice on this. It didn’t seem like it, though.
And now the hard work begins for Scott Bessent and Howard Lutnick and Trump’s ‘finance related’ cabinet members: they’ve got to schedule, conduct, and finalize new trade deals with these 75 or 80 countries over the course of the next several weeks and months...
But- let’s hope- that most of the drama and market turmoil related to these tariffs is over, already. And in a matter of days.
It could take months-or years- to break the will of the Chinese leaders here-and I’d be shocked if there’s a quick resolution to the China stand-off-
Especially if it’s really ‘the one’ that trump wanted to force into a showdown...
But-our overall economy really doesn’t depend on as large a chunk of Chinese goods as you might think- and in most instances-there are other countries who are dying to ‘step up’ and provide the goods and raw materials that China won’t.
For example:when xi banned the sale of seven important rare earth metals in the u-s a few days ago-Australia’s mining industry stepped up and said: we can sell those to you. We’ll rush in to fill the u-s need.
And so-China might not have as much leverage here as it thinks it does. That that’s important if the larger mission, here, is to shift the global trading power back in ‘our’ favor instead of in China’s favor. And it is.
This is what Trump’s team is ultimately looking for.
Yep. Our retirement accounts took a beating-and hopefully-it won’t take long for them to bounce back- but-
It’s impressive that -within days-Trump has China isolated and every other country motivated to make fairer trade deals with the
US.
Anyone who says that’s not impressive simply ‘wants to wallow’ in the negative sentiments of the last few days.
Oh- very quickly: also adding to my theory that this is ‘all about’ China and preparing for any economic or military conflict with them that is looming...
The NY Post reported the news yesterday that the newest generation of nuclear bomb has just been ‘fast tracked’ for production.
And it is a frightening, mortifying, weapon.
God forbid that any of our leaders ever feel like they ‘need’ to use it. Wow.
That’s terrifying stuff...but nuclear bombs of this sort are intended to be the ultimate ‘deterrent’. Aren’t they?
With both Russian and Chinese belligerence building in this new era- we are right back to seeing the importance of JFK and Ronald Reagan’s policies of ‘mutually assured destruction’....
As in...
If you attack us...regardless of what you think will happen...you die.
The younger people in the audience who didn’t live through the cold war era might not know this stuff...but .... The policy of mutually assured destruction is basically making it clear to our global enemies: no matter what, if you think you want a war with America. You lose.
If you think you are going to annihilate us with nuclear war.... just know.... you automatically die, too.
It is based on the theory of rational deterrence. Think logically: it states that the threat of using devastating weapons against the enemy prevents that enemy from acting against you.
You get it.
photo credit: Getty Images
audio version of the segment here > Trump flips the script