Jay Weber Show transcript 10/11/24
Kamala Harris’s team really must be getting worried: they have agreed to allow her to do a town hall on CNN on the 23rd.
If that date sounds familiar-it’s because it was the date that CNN and the Harris campaign have been trying to get Donald Trump to agree to-for another debate.
He’s said no.
And so- as CNN confirmed the Harris town hall for that night-they again extended an invite for Donald Trump to do a town hall on the same night. Right before-or afterward.
No word on whether he’ll accept that, yet. But I wouldn’t be an immediate ‘no’....as i am with another debate.
I’d still-lean-toward no, given that it’s CNN and you know they’ll be asking nasty and biased questions-especially if kamala’s still behind when that date rolls around-
So, if i was Trump’s team-I’d still decline-but they might also want the contrast- one last time-before election day: the contrast of Donald trump handling even hostile questions and talking about the issues- as kamala Harris ‘word salads’ her way thru an hour.... avoiding...talking about the issues.
I-am-glad to see that Donald Trump has -again-rejected yet another Fox news offers to host a debate. This offer came earlier in the week- and i wish fox’s newsroom would just ‘give up’, top. But they want the ratings, not the ‘November win’.
So, in response to Fox and CNN, again, floating another debate-I was glad to see trump respond on truth social-in all caps: there will be no rematch.
Good, because he’s not good at them, and even if Kamala Harris is pretty awful, as she was during the first debate- her campaign knows that the MSM will still trash trump and boost Kamala and pretend she was the winner...and ‘looked presidential’...and ‘was in command’...etc.
Why would Trump agree to go along with a ‘late in the calendar’ set up like that?
He’s back leading in the polls in six or seven of the swing states and based on how the Harris campaign has had a fourth week of poor performances this week, is likely to expand those leads next week-which puts us in mid-October, already.
No. Trump doesn’t need to do any more debates.
I haven’t talked about this week’s polling-but it’s been as i predicted-last week: the genuinely heartless and arrogant response by the Biden and Harris teams to hurricane Helene has harmed her. The battleground polls seem to show-generically- a two- or three-point shift toward trump...
That’s enough to have him leading in nearly all the swing states-at least by a sliver-
Now toss in the fact that these poll numbers don’t even reflect the reaction to Kamala Harris’ epic gaffe on the view this week- in which she admitted she will be no different than Biden. Couldn’t think of a single thing she’d have done differently, even though Biden has been ‘one bad decision after another’ and ‘creating one disaster after another’ for four years.
In any earlier era-that admission would have blown up Kamala’s campaign- that day. But...the polling that is being done -this week- will reflect the reaction to it- in next week’s polling...
And so...you’ve got to assume that -next week’s polling- will also be good news for Trump.
Why would he or his team tamper with that? Tamper with the trajectory of this race over the last three weeks-soon to be four?
I know I wouldn’t if I was advising Trump.
Let kamala keep whining about another debate. All Trump’s team has to say is: Donald Trump stands on his four year record as president.
Kamala just told us that she’s happy with her and Joe’s record of the last four years. Voters know where we are coming from. Let’s go vote.
To me-that’s a devastatingly effective retort: we don’t need any more talking. Kamala’s proven she’s not very good at it. If she wants this to be about our records- great. Remember the prosperity, higher wages, low taxes, closed borders, and global calm of the trump years.... And then compare them to the crap-storm of the Biden/Harris years...and go vote.
Everything else is noise...at this point of the campaign. It really is.
We’ve been talking about how this race has been trending back toward trump and the GOP-
Folks- yesterday- in a very rare move-a presidential campaign released its’ current internal polling.
The trump campaign released their internals-which show trump leading in all seven swing states.
And here’s what struck me, Trump’s internal polling isn’t even as optimistic as most of the ‘public polling’ that we’ve seen released this week.
I didn’t read the percentages for each state because i didn’t want to lose you ‘in the numbers’...but their results have trump at either 48 or 49 percent in every state- close to that 50 percent ‘majority’ mark.
That’s what their notation means, there.
But- okay-
Trump’s team has him up one in Wisconsin. Well, Tammy Baldwin’s internal polling has trump up three...and Emmerson and Quinnipiac have him up two...I believe.
Other polling! Is slightly more optimistic than his own...which suggests that he’s in a good ‘situation’ here in Wisconsin and the swing states-especially when we must assume that these polls are under-representing trump voters again this year.
They did in 2016 and 2020. By 5 and 8 points. And so, if they are off by even three percent this year-Trump’s leading in most of these swing states by a 4,5-, or 6-point margin.
That’s how I’m reading these polls this week.
Then consider that most of the so-called ‘undecided’ and ‘double hater’ voters who are out there in the swing states- are probably republican-leaning voters.
I think this holds for every swing state-but Craig Gilbert has an interesting piece in the j/s... based on Charles Franklin’s last Marquette poll.
Who are the ‘undecideds’ that Franklin found in Wisconsin?
The conflicted partisans are mostly Republican voters who have big personal qualms about Trump.
The “double haters” include a lot of independent voters who don’t like either candidate.
Both kinds of voters are “cross-pressured” in polling terms. They’re conflicted.
Overall, the undecided voters that Marquette has polled lean more toward Trump than Harris.
Okay-but when push comes to shove-who are they going to vote for?
As Franklin tells Gilbert: overall, the undecided voters lean more toward Trump than Harris.
Franklin says:
Some Republicans and independents who would otherwise back him but have reservations about him personally, whether it’s his temperament, age, honesty or other attributes, Franklin said.
Yep. It does.
But that doesn’t mean they are going to vote for kamala in a few weeks. ‘more likely’, it means that they either stay home....or bite the bullet and vote for the ‘party’ they like, even if they don’t like the ‘person’ currently atop the party.
So you don’t like Trump. Okay.
But- there are a lot of great GOP candidates ‘down ballot’ that you can support, right? Eric Hovde? Our great GOP lawmakers in Madison? And you agree with the GOP on the issues- the economy-the need to close the border- etc.?
Well then, why would you possibly vote for Kamala? The policies. The fixes. The hope. Is on the GOP side.
That’s how these undecideds are going to ‘break’ if they turn out to vote, at all.
Quote- overall- undecided voters lean toward trump by about 20 points...Franklin says.
Good.
Not surprisingly- that margin is largest among undecided republicans. ‘not good’.
But to them: I’d ask them to go thru the mental rundown that i just did: the issues and a whole menu of GOP candidates that you- do like and/or can support- are also on the ballot. So please turn out to vote for them- and bite the bullet on trump.
Because- we cannot have four more years of ‘this’.
photo credit: Getty Images
story credit: jsonline.com
audio version of the segment here > Polls are trending towards Trump. Even in Wisconsin