Jay Weber Show transcript 10-11-24
I don’t want to overly focus on this week’s polling-but it’s virtually all good news for President Trump- as it shows him retaking slim leads in most or all the swing states.
It’s optimistic enough that his campaign released its’ own internal polling-which is rare- and it shows him leading Kamala Harris in every one of the seven swing states-
Now-in four of those seven-it’s just by one point.
But- the thing that struck me is that Trump’s internal polling is the one with the ‘worst looking’ figures for him.
His pollsters say he’s up in Wisconsin by one-
Well-Tammy Baldwin’s internals and Quinnipiac show trump up by three....so...
It’s not like Trump is boasting about overly generous numbers.
This doesn’t surprise me because i have been of the few talkers who completely rejected the notion that Kamala Harris has been ‘getting stronger’ as her campaign ages.
No. She’s not.
Pollster Matt Towery is popping up on fox shows a lot-and agrees that we saw a momentum shift about three weeks ago...even if it has meant that Kamala’s numbers have only-slowly- been eroding.
Sound familiar?
We are seeing the ‘trend lines’ that i predicted we’d be seeing.
Towery mentions the weak ‘black vote’ for kamala...that for some reason still seems to be slowly trending ‘away from her’ in the swing states. Reince mentioned it when he was on yesterday.
It's the black vote -as much as anything-that has democrat operatives and strategists so alarmed this week. Because-if Kamala’s going to win these upper midwestern states, she needs the suburban voters, the single cat ladies, the ‘Karen constituency’ and about 85 percent of black voters.
Instead...she’s at about 75 percent of black voters...and it’s trending ‘away’.
This had the Washington post-
The Washington Post! - doing a significant article on how the Harris campaign is trying to reverse a steep decline of black voter turnout here in Wisconsin. That was posted Wednesday.
Then-Thursday- politico posted virtually the exact same story about Detroit, in Michigan.
And gee- that came the same day the dems announced Barrack Obama was being dispatched to Pittsburgh and Philly- to try to boost kamala’s black vote there.
Do you see the link? If we only see a tepid turnout for Kamala in Milwaukee, Detroit, Pittsburgh, and Philly-she’s probably not going to win any of these three states-
But- at the very least- trump could win one of the three. Couldn’t he?
They don’t have any specifics on that- but I saw a different report that claims Michelle Obama is heading a ‘turnout the vote’ effort...by organizing over 500 parties....to lure in young urban voters.
Don’t worry-the story said- these parties are going to be ‘off the chain’...she’s bringing big stars with her like.... Mark Ruffalo... (who?) .... And... John Bon Jovi....and Diddy-
No, not Diddy.... But....they’re going to have ‘star power’ is the claim.
Okay.
Whatever.
Meanwhile- to the post’s credit-they do mention in the article that the Wisconsin GOP and the Trump campaign opened a community center on the north side in 2021-and have kept it open. The Trump campaign and Wisconsin go have tried to engage with the black community as more of a year-round effort- as a spokesman says, here.
This as- yet again-Kammy and the white democrats only blow into town when they need the black vote. They’re not doing anything for urban Milwaukee- or urban America- otherwise.
Maybe that’s why the black vote has fallen off for them so dramatically since 2012.
Moreover- this idea that Kamala has ‘brown skin’ and so that’s going to automatically turn out a higher black vote...is also silly.
The country and its’ voters-of-color have become more sophisticated than that...over the last several election cycles.
More and more of them are insulted at the notion that- the elite white liberals who run the democrat party- think they can just dangle some black or brown candidate in front of them-and get their vote.
It's why there’s also a panic in Michigan: my god, how do we trick more black voters in Detroit? Is the question they wrestle with.
I joke about Diddy-but up until he was finally outed for his years of sex trafficking crimes and other perversions- Sean Combs had been engaging in ‘get out the vote’ drives for the democrat party.
Remember these?
His ‘vote or die’ campaigns?
It’s really interesting how quickly American leftists can erase and ‘memory hole’ one of their own when that person is outed as a criminal or a pervert.
Even if that person-like Diddy or Harvey Weinstein – had been a well-known pervert- within their own closed circles- for decades.
Isn’t that something?
There are all sorts of photos of Barrack and Michelle with Diddy. Hillary with Diddy. There’s video of them praising him at parties.
‘Diddy’s the man. Don’t look in the back room. But...Michelle and i can’t praise Diddy enough.
This guy’s good p....
At. This guy’s a straight sh...
Let’s just say- we like Diddy.
Then-in an instant- that person is erased...and they’ve never heard of him before.
It all goes away. In a day. When it’s a democrat that’s outed. Especially-when that person’s scum-baggery was well-known to them.
The democrats were perfectly willing to look the other way and ‘use’ Weinstein and Combs...etc...as long as they had a use for them. The scum-baggery was of ‘no consequence’. Completely overlooked. Just so long as the big donations and pro-left activities continued.
Hillary Clinton had over sixty reasons that she blamed for the loss-and that’s a real number...
But....that’s an interesting measure to watch for-come election night: if kamala doesn’t win at least 50 percent of the overall Detroit vote-she’s in trouble. And it would be due to a softness in black voter turnout.
And there, too, the Harris campaign’s big effort related to voter turnout is- house parties.
No kidding.
Can you see why some of these black voters are finding it all insulting?
The candidates can stop at places in ‘white America’ and hold forums and rallies and speak directly to the people about the issues...but in black America...it’s got to be a house party?
Come on.
Do you see why I’ve been outing the democrats as the real racists in this country? Both white-and black- democrat leaders think so little of people of color that- they think every ‘Hispanic voter’ just recently crossed the border... And every black voter is too dumb or disinterested to think about the issues....so let’s get.....lil’ yeezy...or ‘super-cheesy’....or kid sleezy....in here to throw a house party....mo-fos....
Really?
Then they wonder why more and more Black voters under the age of 60 are saying ‘screw it’. If you’re just going to insult me like that...i don’t need you.
I wish an even larger chunk of black and urban voters would see it. Young and old.
Recent polling has kamala at 78 percent of the Black vote-to Trump’s 15. That’s probably about right.
But it’s also not enough for kamala to win in November-if she can’t boost those numbers-and the democrat strategists know it- which is why t they are launching these panicky efforts.
photo credit: Getty Images
audio version of the segment here > Democrats in panic mode. Kamala's Black support is eroding fast.