Jay Weber Show transcript 10-3-24 7:40am
We got the last Marquette poll of the election from Charles Franklin and his team yesterday-and they see a race that hasn’t changed -in a month.
They’ve got Kamala Harris polling four points ahead of trump with both registered and likely voters.
Okay. Whatever.
His final snapshot in 2020 was off by four points- given that he had Biden leading trump by five at this point in the race last time-and it was such a close finish here that trump only lost by about 22-thousand votes.
And so- I’m going to take this final ‘finding’ with a grain of salt- knowing the history of this race and how every poll being taken insists ‘it’s close’...but is now closing in trump’s favor over the last two weeks.
Here’s another reason that i haven’t been overly concerned about what the top-line polls show: because by every measure and issue- except abortion- the republicans are favored-and by significant margins. It’s not just border and economy and inflation- it’s pretty much every issue.
Moreover-I’ve been doing this for over 30 years and have watched polling and prognosticating for just as long-
And i have never seen a situation in which a candidate like Kamala Harris is underwater on every issue- and underperforming with every. Single. Demographic and group...
And yet...is said to be winning.
Come on. It cannot be both. I’m just telling you now: we cannot have a situation here in Wisconsin or nationally-in which...ooh...Kamala Harris is losing a chunk of black voters...and ooh...kamala’s losing a big chunk of the Hispanic vote...and ooh...she’s doing terrible with young people...and ooh...she’s losing the union vote...and ooh...she’s doing terrible with blue collar workers.....and...ugh...she’s underwater with Catholics, and Seniors, and Laotian lifeguards, and Turkish kite flyers....
Kamala Harris -cannot- cannot-be underperforming every other modern era democrat in all these demos-and still be winning.
Especially when the last two elections were razor close and both Hillary Clinton and joe Biden were doing so much better-in all of these demos-than kamala is.
I mean, come on, how can Kamala win, if she’s doing worse than Hillary with Blacks, Hispanics, Teamsters, young people, Catholics, Protestants, prairie dogs...
Who in the hell is propping up kamala Harris- if it’s not any of these demos?
Is she just ‘killing’ it’ with black women, college profs, bank clerks and knitting clubs? What demos are propping Harris up and keeping this a tie- if it isn’t Blacks, Hispanics, seniors, young people...
Really. Tell me. Send me the data from the polls and surveys that I’m missing here-
Because –Kamala Harris seems to be ‘sucking everywhere’ and still winning.
There’s not a chance that this is really going on- as described by these pollsters. Either she has far more support among all these demos than the polls have been showing- or she’s losing badly. Because it can’t be both.
Listen to CNN’s data guy-Harry Enten- just yesterday- talking about union members...and then.... blue collar workers. These are not the same demos.
Union members are a ‘subset’ of blue collar voters, obviously, but the vast majority of blue collar laborers and tradesmen- are not- unionized. Do most people understand that?
Okay.... So, Kamala’s sucking with union workers. Then Enten widens it out to non-college educated voters- essentially ‘laborers too. (click link below)
CNN's Enten: Trump Has Gained 17 Points Among Non-White, Non-College Educated Voters From 2020
We cannot get almost daily alarms from these pollsters and data-crunchers telling us that Kamala Harris is 15 or 20 points behind where Hillary and joe were with these groups...but she’s still leading.
Bull plop.
And bull plop- all day- to that notion.
And so no, don’t believe the Marquette poll...or any of these others this year. If they are willing to say ‘trump is leading by a slight margin in the swing states’.... it’s more likely that he’s winning them by 3 to 5 points.
‘time’ and the November results could prove me wrong-but either one chunk of this polling data is wildly wrong- or the other part is. Know what i mean?
Either kamala isn’t doing as poorly with all these demos as their data suggests.... or.... she’s losing....and their top-line numbers are wrong. She cannot be ‘leading’ and be hemorrhaging this much traditional democrat support.
Bottom line.
photo credit: Fox News
audio version of the segment here > Kamala can't be leading by 4 and I'll tell you why.