Jay Weber Show transcript 5-6-24 8:10am
So... last week-we were talking about Biden’s ‘blue wall’ and how the strategists on both sides of the aisle believe that this fall presidential election is already ‘more honestly’ down to three states: Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
And we need to put all of the normal caveats on this: the election is still six months away. Political fortunes can change. Polls often change. Anything can happen-
But-
If the election was held today- the race would come down to these three rust belt states.
They are called the ‘blue wall’ states, because they have played such an important role, historically, in any modern era presidential win for the democrats-
And because-over the last 50 years, at least, they have gone ‘democrat’ almost exclusively.
So-well ‘before Biden’ – these were the states that were giving the democrats their wins nationally. But this year, they appear to be critically important because-
Even though you keep hearing about six or seven swing states-
Well, four of those seven haven’t looked very ‘swinging’ over the last six months or so.
The other four swing states are- two in the south-Georgia and North Carolina-
And two in the southwest: Nevada and Arizona. And as i say- trump has been leading Biden in those states for quite some time-but the most recent polls have Trump leading Biden anywhere between 3 and 10 points in those states- suggesting they are ‘out of reach’ for Biden and the democrats, currently.
Those leaves: Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. The states in which Biden is at least within one to three points of trump.
It’s a very close race in these three states- and please remember that – with the samples of voters these pollsters are talking to- given the sample size-
Their results have a 3- or 4-point margin of error-
Which really means: the race is within that window.
it’s human nature to insist that ‘your guy’ is winning even if the polls show he’s only up by one or two points- the truth is- that race is a crapshoot. It could go either way.
And in-this race- Donald trump has surged in the so-called sunbelt states- and so the polling isn’t all that close there-
But it is, here in the upper-Midwest. And if you missed our conversation last week-
What it means is: the way the electoral map and the race for 270 electoral votes looks right now-
If you are a political strategist who has a map of the country laid out on the table in front of you-
It would show that-if Donald Trump can take even one of these three ‘blue wall’ states away from Joe Biden, he can win his second term.
That’s what we are talking about here. And right now? In the swing state polling? Trump is ahead by at least a point or two in all three of those states.
Joe Biden cannot afford to lose- Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes, Michigan’s fifteen, or Wisconsin’s ten. If he loses even one of them, he’s done-
And here’s why I keep emphasizing it: because in the past- we’d just assume Biden is going to win Wisconsin and Michigan.
In previous contests using this modern era sort of ‘blue wall’ map- the democrats could have slept easy knowing that- well, we’re going to win Wisconsin and Michigan-
And so, the only real fight was over Pennsylvania.
And the democrats were so certain they were going to win Wisconsin and Michigan that they really didn’t need to put in any time here.
Why does Hillary Clinton’s campaign still take crap for their famous blunder of not having her hold even-one? -campaign appearance in Wisconsin?
Because she and her campaign ‘knew’. ‘knew’ they were going to win Wisconsin. No one had won it since Reagan-so why spend time, money, and effort there.
But it’s like Hillary blew us off because she had a been in a knife fight in Tomah once and hated the state. It was a very intentional strategy to skip Wisconsin- because it was a lock in 2016. Especially against this clown, trump. Right?
Then she lost, and we were the reason she lost, and it was glorious.
Biden’s team won back Wisconsin in 2020 and they don’t want to lose it again- and so- if a tired and ancient Biden is doing-any-campaigning these days, he’s doing it in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
Therefore and this time around? I’d still say Wisconsin probably goes to Biden...but I would not. Not. Assume that Biden was in good shape in Michigan or Pennsylvania.
In Michigan, Biden and the dems have angered higher numbers of Arab voters, young voters, black voters, and even union and UAW workers...with an EV push that is going to put auto workers and parts suppliers out of jobs if Americans are shoved into electric cars.
Also remember: RFK junior has already qualified for the ballot in Michigan...and not the other states. If he is, indeed, a draw for disgusted democrat voters, that could give trump an edge in Michigan.
And-if you look at the seven swing states, overall, and ask how likely is it that trump can win back states that Biden won-
The answer is: ‘very likely’, given how close Biden’s margins of victory were in them in 2020-and what a craptacular failure he has been as president.
The other factor that is overrides this entire campaign and will until or unless Biden drops out or dies- is the age question. One analysis I read was talking to James Carville and other democrat strategists who’ve been looking closely at these upper Midwest states-
And their take is- Biden’s still okay. He might-only- really be in a little bit trouble in Michigan-
But- they say- with the independent voters and swing voters they are polling- the age issue comes up over and over again-
As in: we never expected Biden to run for a second term.
That’s interesting to me.
It suggests that there really are a sizable number of swing voters out there who only voted for Biden in 2020 to ‘get past Trump’. Or to ‘stop the mean tweets’... And so...they took Biden at his word that he was only going to be a ‘transition’ president or a ‘bridge’ president.
The palate cleanser after Trump if you would.
Now an ancient Joe Biden is running again. He clearly isn’t the one running the country.
He stumbles and bumbles his way thru the day now-
For heaven’s sake- this weekend-as he and jill walked to the car-he stopped in the middle of the driveway to sort of squat-and hold himself in place- and it looked exactly like a little kid pooping.
You know how toddlers will just go quiet...and concentrate...and you know they are filling the diaper.
Well- honestly- people, Joe Biden was either pooping into his depends, or was trying to hold it in. And I don’t say that to be funny. I have no interest in mocking the elderly: we are all going to get there some day.
But- this snippet of video was- widely mocked- on social media this weekend.
This man-is not- up to the job that he’s currently holding, and if the people who are going to decide the fall election simply acknowledge that- he will not win a second term.
So, it’s interesting that the biggest worry of the veteran data crunchers and strategists on the democrat side of the aisle now-
When it comes to Biden’s fortunes in these upper Midwest states is the independents are really focusing on the age thing, and those who voted for Joe Biden once, are telling us they are really reluctant to do it a second time.
It gets us right back to a few things I’ve been saying for months now, related to a few polling results:
If 70 to 75 percent of Americans say Joe Biden is too old to do this job, how does he win again?
If 55 percent of Americans say Donald Trump’s presidency was a success, but only 39 percent say Biden’s is- how does Biden win again?
If 70 percent of voters say the country is going in the wrong direction-how does Biden win again?
If 65 percent of Americans say the open borders are a nightmare destroying the country- how does Joe Biden win again?
Folks, we are a deeply, deeply, ideologically divided country- and that’s the only reason that this race continues to be close. I know much of the country hates Donald Trump, but i think the numbers would roughly be the same whether Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley was the GOP nominee.
Some of those swing voters might feel better about voting for one of them than voting for trump...but this is mostly a matter of the ideological divide that’s keeping this close.
Between now and November-more and more ‘left leaning Americans’ need to come to grips with just how incapable and terrible this president is-even if he’s their party’s choice- and decide to make a ‘better choice’ in fall.
Whether that’s trump, or stein, or west, or RFK junior, or ‘staying home’. They’ve got to make a different choice.
photo credit: Getty Images