Jay Weber Show transcript 4/25/24 6:10am
So much for this idea of President Biden gaining momentum.
He was lying, again, yesterday, during a campaign stop and telling the crowd that ‘if you look, I’m leading in almost all of the most recent polls.’
He’s not.
He said- in that Marquette poll in Wisconsin, I jumped eight points.
He didn’t.
I don’t know who is feeding him his information- or if his campaign team is simply lying to him to keep his spirits up – (which is what i believe is probably happening)-
But there has been no-major shift-toward Joe Biden in the polls over the last two weeks or so-
And any ‘minor’ improvement he was seeing in these national polls about a month ago-has now stalled out, again.
The last time i mentioned this, I said: I’m only concerned about what’s going on in the swing states. The national polls don’t mean nearly as much as the swing state polls do-
And at that point- probably two weeks ago- we hadn’t had any new swing state polling to either confirm, or deny, that Biden was ‘doing better’.
Well-
Bloomberg news put out its latest numbers on the swing states yesterday-and they still show Donald Trump leading in six of the seven swing states-
And they show trump seeming to grow his leads in several of these states. Michigan and Pennsylvania seem ‘tighter’ to me, but these other states show even larger margins for Trump.
Again-this is the latest Bloomberg-Morning Consult poll:
Trump leads Biden 49% to 43% across the seven swing states being polled by Bloomberg News and Morning Consult.
A majority of swing-state voters see worsening economic conditions in the coming months.
Moreover-what none of the stories you read about this today will tell you- but what i found to be the case if you look more closely at Bloomberg’s results-
Moreover- in every one of these states, Donald Trump is polling very close to 50 percent.
This seems to disrupt another recent talking point- in both the MSM and the conservative media- that, ‘yeah, but neither of these guys can get near 50 percent. They only poll in the low 40s.
Well, in these swing states, yeah, Bloomberg has Joe Biden only polling about 44 percent in these swing states-but they’ve got trump polling at 48 or 49 percent.
I’d say that’s as strong a showing in-any- presidential poll that I’ve seen related to Donald trump over the course of the three presidential elections he ran in.
Trump never got anywhere near 50 percent support when he beat Hillary-and wasn’t showing this strongly at any point of the 2020 race.
I’m not saying Trump will win in fall-
I’m just pointing out some ‘truths’ or ‘observations’ here that most of these pundits and pollsters aren’t going to point out to you.
Every liberal news outlet wants to believe Joe Biden is ‘turning some corner’ here, or is ‘back on top’, here, but I just don’t see it yet.
Not when trump is still leading in the six or seven states that will decide the election-and when numerous polls have him leading in most of these states ‘outside the margin of error’.
Do people understand that-if the election was held today-and we only gave trump victories in the states that show him up by at least four on Biden- (which is the margin of error in most polls this size)
That trump would win Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Nevada? And is close to winning Wisconsin?
Whether you look at the latest Bloomberg numbers, or the Real Clear Politics rolling average of the swing states- Joe Biden is only competitive in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
This suggests he’s ‘turning things around’?
Not from where i sit.
I’d point out that Trump’s leads in these states grew larger in five of them- comparing them to the same Bloomberg poll a month ago-
And-I’d point out that Trump’s lead in North Carolina has grown from eight points last month-to ten points this month.
Folks-this is the one state. The one state. That democrats point to as a state that they can flip.
Oh, hey, the demographics of North Carolina have been changing. You just don’t understand. All sorts of young liberals have flooded in there. We dems are going to flip North Carolina.
Okay. But trump’s currently leading by ten.
And-
When you couple these results with the findings of Sunday’s NBC poll- that showed people see Donald Trump was -way- more competent and -way- more effective-than Joe Biden, i just don’t see how the American people are going to suddenly find Biden more appealing than Trump in fall.
What changes dramatically between now and November-in the minds of voters who have held these exact same sentiments now-for at least a year or more- when it comes to Biden: he’s too old, he’s not up to this job, he’s screwing us, trump was a better president. Trump is more competent-
What generates a ‘wholesale change’ in voter sentiments between now and November?
It already looks like democrats can only win this by spending two billion dollars in misleading ads and trump smears-and by having a great cheating operation. No?
Why do you think that Ben Wickler and other democrat leaders in the states have invested their hopes in a ‘reverse coattails’ strategy?
JR Ross and I have talked about this a few times, but I’m not sure most audience members have heard it or ‘get it’-
But it’s exactly what it sounds like: instead of having a popular presidential candidate who pulls all of the other democrats lower on the ballot to victory with him-
The hope this year is that-if the democrats can build up all sorts of interest and excitement in the down ballot races-that there will be other reasons for democrat voters to rush to the polls-and while they are there voting for....oh....Tammy Baldwin in a tight senate race...they will also vote for Joe Biden and he’ll win Wisconsin that way, get it?
This strategy has state-level democrats all across the country trying to come up with ways to juice interest in the fall elections by putting popular lefty referendum questions on the ballot...or promoting other big races as ‘death matches’ that you’ve just got to participate in as a voter.... etc.
They are looking for -external ways- to breathe life into Biden’s candidacy.
In some states-I’ll be controversial abortion referenda, which is what they are doing in Florida.
In North Carolina, dems are trying to stir controversy in the governor’s race.
Here in Wisconsin, I have no doubt that Wickler and WI dems are going to pretend as if ‘control of the state legislature hangs in the balance’ due to Tony Evers’ new legislative maps.
Control-doesn’t- hang in the balance, by the way, but the dems are sure going to work hard to convince their voters that it does.
Whether it will work or not is still in question.
The answer is probably: it could work in some states, but not others.
My basic take would be presidential election years are almost entirely about the presidential election. Some of these other issues and races can move the results slightly-but probably not enough to save joe Biden -if he can’t present himself as a man who has ‘another four years of this’ left in him-
And right now?
He can’t and he’s not.
Did you hear him at his rally yesterday?
It was a series of the normal gaffes and slurs-but yet again- he read the ‘stage prompts’ on the teleprompter.
I mean no blasphemy, but when I heard that, I thought, Jesus, really?
He’s that lost, mentally?
And you have to see the video that comes with it to get the full effect: it’s clear Joe Biden has some ‘automatic modes’ that -even with his growing dementia- he can ‘click into’-
And one of them is his fiery ‘speech giving’ mode.
His staff knows he still can just ‘read what’s on the prompter’...
And i am certain that’s the direction they give him: just read what’s on the prompter, joe.
And so, he does.
Right down to the stage directions...
It’s an SNL skit, now, come to life:
And i say to you, America will never back down. Pause, parentheses, cheer!
How mentally ‘gone’ do you need to be in order to do this-as someone who has spent a career reading speech off of a prompter?
story credit: Bloomberg/Morning Consult
photo credit: Getty Images