Jay Weber Show transcript 4-11-24
I will-again- express my skepticism that we are going to see some of the major swings in voting patterns in fall that most analysts are predicting- and most polls are showing.
Donald trump is not going to get 20 percent of the black vote, or 50 percent of the Hispanic or youth votes-
Luckily- he doesn’t need to see percentages that are nearly that high-in order to make it impossible for Joe Biden and the democrats to win.
All Trump needs to do is do- slightly better-in those demos than he did in 2020-and he wins.
All Trump and the GOP need-is for significant numbers of voters in those demos to stay home in disgust or to vote third party- and trump wins and the GOP racks up major wins, as well.
This is the pre-amble to a segment about how-everywhere you turn-there seem to be more evidence of voters in those normally loyal democrat groups- giving up on Biden-and on this relentlessly ‘woke’ and ‘ridiculous’ democrat party.
USA Today had a big story yesterday:
Young voters aren't warming up to Biden. They know it means Trump could win again.
The main claim in the story is: young voters aren’t apathetic, they’re annoyed. And for various reasons.
But when it comes to Joe Biden-there seems to be a healthy mix of: Biden not only screwed up the economy and is screwing me that way- but he’s also not addressing the other things i find important-
Which might be-climate change. Israel. No gun bans. Not erasing my loans.
This young crowd has all sorts of gripes.
Larry Kudlow was interviewed recently, and as a long-time political insider and a smart guy, he’s clearly surprised by the number of young people who are now supporting Donald trump.
Surveys suggest it’s at least half of those who intend to vote.
I certainly see how young people who are more suburban, rural, and white would be ‘coming around’ to voting for Donald Trump.
But even among young minority voters-the shifts we are seeing-are-significant.
CNN recently sent someone to talk to young black voters, specifically.
They went to historically black colleges and talked to all sorts of young, woke, students, and most of them said: if Biden loses, it’s his fault, not ours.
At one point, the CNN reporter was imploring them: but if you don’t vote...trump could win. If you don’t vote.... the worst could happen.
Happily-their response was, ‘so what?’ maybe it’ll teach the democrats a lesson.
I love hearing that answer -for what it ‘suggests’ in addition to what they are saying about teaching the dems a lesson.
Kate Boldoun is imploring them-but then Trump wins!
And their answer suggests-that doesn’t scare them as much as she wants it too.
She’s trying to get them to understand: if trump wins-democracy dies. Blacks are put back in chains. GOP thug squads go around punching babies. Hispanics will be killed and eaten for their meat...
She’s trying every alarmist trick that works on the set of CNN-
And it doesn’t scare them. Because they know it’s nonsense. These black students-as far left as they are- didn’t seem at all worried about a second trump term.
Why? Because they know alarmist horse crap when they hear it. Trump isn’t the devil. He’s not going to bring back slavery. He’s not going to force a dystopian sort of ‘handmaid’s tale’ state onto us. He’s not going to be a dictator.
This malarkey doesn’t ‘land’ with these kids, at all. Good.
Another new worry- DC democrats are concerned that more centrists, moderates, and independents are starting to slouch toward trump. These are the people who are going to decide the election, of course, and so seeing Donald Trump roll out a politically reasonable and rational position on abortion on Monday-really rattled the Biden White House and the activist crowd.
They’ve been raging against it for three days now-and one reason is: they can’t portray Trump as a vile extremists-if he’s saying rational things that most voters think sound reasonable when it comes to abortion.
So that’s a new worry.
Also, a growing worry: losing voters to the third party or independent candidates. This is something that democrats are starting to see evidence of in state battleground polls: people from these traditional democrat groups who aren’t moving to trump- but who are moving to a different choice. The latest data on Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania does not look good -given how close these states were in 2020.
Folks-Biden beat trump in Nevada by two, Pennsylvania by one, and trump only won North Carolina by one- in 2020-
And now democrat party affiliation is down by decisive margins in all three states- and the polls show Trump leading Biden in all three states.
There just isn’t a lot of good news here, for democrats, even as their media accomplices try to spin the notion that Joe Biden is starting to come back, here.
Newsweek is making that case today, but they base it on national polls. Apparently, two or three new national polls show Biden has retaken the lead over trump by a point or so...over the last week or two- nationally.
Okay. But the battleground polls still show trump with significant leads in six of the states that will decide the election. Until those changes, I won’t worry.
Currently-I’m more worried about Joe Biden ‘making it’ to November.
Folks, we need ancient joe to at least-last-until November. If he falls ill or dies now- the democrats have a chance for a rhetorical ‘reset’ with enough time to pull it off.
If Biden withdraws or dies closer to election day-in October- then there’s a chance the MSM pumps him up into the ‘emotional favorite’ and the people who are easily manipulated, emotionally, can be triggered-
And that describes over half of America now. Certainly, most democrat voters.
Can you imagine if Biden was to die in late September or early October? The sort of emotional manipulation the dems and the MSM would lay on the country?
Vote for Joe. Honor his legacy. Let Kamala or Gavin continue his work....etc.
Good grief.
We on the right-need Joe Biden to live until November- and I’m not predicting anything, but i swear- every week- he looks a little worse to me. A little more ‘out of it’. A little frailer and more fragile.
I hope it’s my imagination, but i don’t think it is.
And by the way? This is another thing about Biden that is a real turnoff to younger voters. Most of them know he’s too old to do the job now-and certainly can’t do it for another four years.
Among young voters- only about one in four think that Joe Biden will be alive by the end of a second term-
And by the way-I’m in that camp.
I’m more and more worried that Joe Biden won’t be alive by November.
story credit: USA Today and CNN
photo credit: Getty Images