Jay Weber Show transcript 6-22-21 8:10am
Lets fast forward to April of 2024. The presidential primaries are running down...
The Wisconsin primary looms-and we have a one-on-one showdown of the sort that we had in 2016, where Wisconsin conservatives and republicans either needed to choose Donald Trump, or Ted Cruz.
In 2024- let’s say there is the same sort of one-on-one showdown between ...Donald trump....and Ron DeSantis.
Who do you vote for?
This is a scenario that could come to pass-even though I realize that Mark Meadows-Trump’s former chief of staff- claimed yesterday that Governor DeSantis wouldn’t run in 2024 if Trump chose to.
2024 is a long way off, in political terms, and people change their minds if the path forward for Ron DeSantis looks promising- I cannot believe that he wouldn’t take it- just because Donald Trump is also in the primary.
And something interesting happened over the weekend. We can’t read too much into it, given that this was a conservative conference that only had 500 people attend...due to covid-19 restrictions.
But...over the weekend...at the western conservative summit....Ron DeSantis won a 2024 straw poll over President Trump.
Huh.
Also noteworthy-it wasn’t an ‘either or’ proposition.
A few takeaways: first- notice what a large gap there is between Trump and DeSantis- and the rest of the field.
The attendees to this conservative conference-really- liked Ron DeSantis over Ted Cruz or any of their other ‘non-Trump’ choices.
There’s no doubt he’s a strong 2024 contender if he runs.
And second-notice how perfectly the top two issues line up with what trump has been talking about-and finding most important: the border, and election integrity.
Come on.
This reflects a conservative base that is still-very in tune-with Donald Trump and what he’s talking about, post-presidency.
And as much as I like Ron DeSantis-and being a guy who- I tell you now- I would vote for him in a nanosecond-
Folks. We can guess at how Ron DeSantis would handle the border, or election reform, or work to protect religious freedom, and he’d probably be very ‘Trumpian’ in that regard...
But...those are ‘Trump’ issues. Which makes me believe that trump likely floats to the nomination again, in 2024, if he really wants it.
The question of whether Trump runs is still open-but not by much. Trump has told everyone he talks to, ever since January that he’s running again if his health holds out.
And if he does-certain republicans will simply clear the way for him, realizing he’s going to almost certainly be too popular to beat.
Nikki Haley has already suggested that if polls show the party members still-really want Trump-in 2023, she’ll sit it out.
Mark meadows, trump’s final chief of staff and a man who continues to be a close confidante-
Got attention for suggesting DeSantis would sit it out, too...but this doesn’t sound as if Trump got an actual assurance from DeSantis.
That’s meadows...hopeful that the nomination wouldn’t come down to a DeSantis/Trump show down.
Meanwhile-Mike Pompeo and Mike Pence will also be in the mix. They aren’t even hiding the fact that they intend to run...and either one of them would make a great president...
But I don’t see either of them taking the nomination away from Trump if he runs. DeSantis could.
That’s what makes this matchup interesting to me:
As for the question-flat out-does trump run in 2024- I have come to believe the answer is-genuinely: yes, if he’s got his health.
I keep seeing these pieces from hopeful never-Trumpers that ‘Trump’s influence is waning in the party’.
Sure it is. He’s out of the spotlight and off social media and -gee- he’s not the president, anymore.
Of course his influence is going to wane.
That doesn’t mean he doesn’t become influential and dominant again once 2023’s primaries roll around. And if the border crisis is –the top most alarming issue to most voters?
Well then-trump is right back in the mix. He closed and controlled this border once.We know he will do it.
Further-we know that he will-by god-complete the wall if he’s got another four years to do it.
He knows how to divert the money from the defense budget. The bid and contract process has been honed down. We’ve got past contractors that can recruited right back into the work-even if they have to re-bid on the work.
Trump-would-get that wall done with another four years to work on it.
That promise, alone, could be enough to catapult him back into the white house after four terrible years of stumbly Joe and heels-up Harris.
I’d never count trump out of another general election for the very fact that he can tap into voter’s biggest concerns, fears, and passions...unlike any other politician since Reagan. He’s really good at it.
But then there’s also the lure of ‘post-president life’ that Donald Trump might like even better. Being an influencer and a powerbroker in the party, without having to subject himself and his family to another five years of the sort of hell that they just all went thru.
One thing is certain. If Trump doesn’t run, and if Gov. Ron DeSantis’s stock remains high, all Trump would need to do is say ‘this is the guy’ at rallies in 2023...and DeSantis would coast to the nomination.
photo credit: Fox News