Jay Weber Show transcript 2-1-21 7:10am
I see that both the WI Street Journal and the J/S wrote weekend pieces about how ‘Senator Ron Johnson has a big decision to make’.
And the stories are fine -so far as they go- but the truth is...these reporters don’t know much about the inner workings of the state republican party or the conservative movement...so they can’t report much.
The basic story is correct: Ron Johnson has a big decision to make.
But the truth is- he doesn’t honestly have to make it-any time soon. We do not need a US Senate race in Wisconsin that is going to chew up the next two years. Johnson could wait six months to a year before he makes a decision...and we would still have plenty of time to field candidates and run the race.
But his decision-might impact- the race for governor, as well, so let’s talk it thru. Because, if Ron Johnson doesn’t run, you could have both a U-S Senate seat open and a gubernatorial slot open...for Wisconsin’s ambitious republicans. And ‘who runs for what’ is going to quickly become the most popular parlor game in GOP circles
So first of all I will start with this and all of my information comes from weeks and months of casual conversations with GOP insiders from Wisconsin and DC .as well as more specific conversations that i have had about these races with five or six very powerful and influential people within the Wisconsin republican party.
And I won’t identify them- because these were candid conversations- but i bring them up so i can say-trust me-this is a wider pool of people...spoken to within the last week-and over time-
And so everything I say here I am confident in saying..
So let’s start with this: I would be shocked if Ron Johnson left the senate to run for governor. Those who seem to know his mind. Tell me Ron Johnson has little-to-no interest in being our governor.
And so that means-if Johnson decides not to run for the senate again- it leaves us with two open seats and no ‘big name’ republicans for either.
That’s a worry party officials have.
As for how likely Ron Johnson is to run for a third term after saying he’d only stay for two. He’d ‘term limit’ himself-
I cannot say. I have not spoken to him directly about it...but I can tell you three things:
1. He would like to spend more time with the kids and grandkids...but...
2. Johnson will be under heavy, heavy pressure by DC and WI republicans to run for a third term because he is the best hope to keep the seat: incumbency is powerful in the senate...and sitting senators are very difficult to beat. And in 2022...once again...we will be playing for which party controls the senate...given its 50/50 split right now. Republicans are going to put the screws to Johnson-in a big way-to run again.
And then....
3. Johnson finally has the sort of power and sway in dc that it takes two terms to build and exercise.I know the republicans are out of power now...but...the fact is....very few congressmen or senators ever rise to the level of having real power or influence over the party’s agenda-and Ron Johnson does now.
Whether you realize it or not- senator Johnson of Wisconsin has the gravitas, the candor, and the respect of his colleagues and party leaders. And it would be hard to walk away from that-if he feels he can really do important work in DC instead of just being a back bencher with no influence.
And so- Johnson’s decision is ‘his own’ and I don’t know if he’s even figured it out yet. But either way-he’s got a while.
I have been told that Mark Belling has been insisting we need an answer out of Johnson right away so others can start their campaigns immediately. I don’t get to listen to mark’s show because I’m sleeping. But I’d disagree and say Johnson has six to nine months yet to mull it if he really needs to and in a way....it lessens the infighting within the Wisconsin GOP if he waits longer. Can you imagine the trump/anti-trump brawl that would break out now? If Johnson said he wasn’t running?
Now-as for the gubernatorial race-and who piles into that race-
That! I find more interesting. And it is what I think Craig Gilbert kind of gets wrong in his piece.
I challenge the notion that either race would have a ‘big field’ as gilbert suggests. Because right now? There are very few rumblings about any higher profile republican rushing into either race.
Right now you hear two names for ‘whose running. Or wants to run’.
One is Rebecca Kleefisch, Scott walker’s lt. Governor. It is no secret she’s running for governor...and frankly... No one’s excited about it.
I hate to be blunt and I struggled with whether to say this on air, but ultimately decided to do so as truth as my defense-and so that it might encourage other conservatives to consider a run that they might mistakenly believe has been blocked to them.
Again-harsh truth: Not one GOP insider I’ve spoken to over the last few days-or weeks- has been of the belief that Rebecca Kleefisch would be-or should be-the party’s standard-bearer, for Governor. They cite her lack of executive experience in either holding an elected office in which she was accountable to voters, or running a private sector company.
I like both the Kleefisch's, but......
And the other name that comes up-who wants to run again? Is: Kevin Nicholson the former marine who ran for US senate and lost the primary to Leah Vukmir. He’d like to run for senate again...but would he have any interest in governor? And what would his qualifications be? They aren’t any stronger than Rebecca’s, really.
To me-Nicholson came out of nowhere to run for the US Senate-because he wants to serve in Washington. Not Madison.
And both Kleefisch and Nicholson-to their credit-have been ambitious, and have been working hard to build party connections and support...
But other than those two names....there are no other ‘big names’ i could give you....considering runs for either opening.
For example: is Sean Duffy champing at the bit to run for either governor, or senator?
Not from what I’ve heard. He’s up there doing Fox News punditry from the north woods and enjoying the heck out of his 8 kids.
Mike Gallagher, a congressman from NE Wisconsin -might- be looking at governor...but I stress...might.
Bryan Steil is a newly minted congressman. He’s still green, politically, and likely uninterested in governor.
And I can’t see Grothman wanting to run for governor...so you drop to the state level legislators...
Well, Scott Fitzgerald just moved to dc to take Sensenbrenner’s role. He’s out.
Robin Vos has always made it clear he has little to no interest in being governor. He likes the rather powerful role he has as assembly speaker.
So who will run for Governor?
It leaves people like...Paul Farrow, the very good Waukesha County Exec who has some name recognition as a former legislator and as the son of former lt. Gov. Margaret Farrow...or...some state lawmaker.
You have to start thinking outside the box: would Paul Ryan be interested? Not likely. He’s in the private sector and his friction with trump has turned all sorts of Wisconsin GOP voters against him.
Would Scott Walker run again?
Very likely, not, for the same reason as Ryan. He’s been thru that fire and is making better, private sector money, now.
Let me float an intriguing name here: Reince Priebus. Former state GOP and RNC chairman. The man who got trump elected to office...and was his chief of staff for a year. Remains a powerful player in dc and state politics. He’d immediately have all sorts of state and national fundraising connections and could compete money-wise with an incumbent Tony Evers.
Reince Priebus, to me, is an intriguing option.
In the past, he has expressed an interest in running for office quote, some day.Maybe ‘someday’ is 2022 and the office is governor of Wisconsin?
I had him on the show just last week. He still seems really plugged into Wisconsin politics.
Maybe Reince is an option.
The question mark there-is the trump affiliation. Wi Dems would try to smear him with it-but six years removed from 2016...and after two years of Joe Biden forcing an extreme liberal agenda on us?
That trump affiliation might help Reince rather than hurt him.
But- forget what you read in the two liberal newspapers this weekend: neither race for senator- or governor- are a crowded field.
They might be the perfect opportunity for another millionaire private sector guy to step into the breach.
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