Jay Weber show transcript 10/29/20 6:44am
So...The Marquette poll shows no real change in the last few weeks of this Presidential race.
In fact, it has shown no real change for six months.
We were talking yesterday about the ridiculous Wash Post and UW polls that had Biden was up 17 and 9 points, respectively, in Wisconsin. Bull Plop!
That Wash Post poll would have represented an eleven point swing in Wisconsin...and in just a month.
Again. Total bologna. Total outlier poll...and yet...a poll that is clearly wrong and has the ability to pollute any average of polls in a very real way...because it’s claiming a huge bidden advantage that isn’t there-is added into the rolling averages of polls that Nate Silver has going at 538..and that real clear politics has had going for years that every beltway insider considers the gold standard measure of where the races are...
I hope you see know why I dismiss those rolling average polls.
The foolish claim is that...hey, if we drop all of our polls into one big pot and average them out...that’ll be the most accurate measure of what’s going on.
How?
There are two immediate ways that is not accurate: a poll is a snapshot in time and measures a race. Today. This week.
So average in polls from three weeks ago? It could be a very different race .week to week.
And the second bit of stupidity is adding obviously wrong and outlier polls into the pot and insisting that’s giving us a more accurate idea of what’s going on.
Folks-this late wash post poll is so far off: it shows such a huge and ridiculous advantage for Joe Biden in the battleground states that just by dumping it into the average...Biden’s alleged lead in all of the important states went up. It has obviously knocked off any careful polling and these averages are immediately useless.
And i think you all get it but if i have polls that show Biden plus three...plus five...plus four...
Okay....Biden’s leading by four. Now we drop in a ridiculous poll that shows he’s leading by 17 in Wisconsin....and ...holy cow! The ‘average’ Biden’s up by seven in Wisconsin now...
No. He’s not.
And as for the Marquette poll it has been a steady five point lead for Biden over the course of six months...but I’d remind you that this same poll had Hillary Clinton leading by 6 and a half points in the final week of the 2016 election.
So Charles Franklin and his team predicted an even larger Clinton advantage and trump ended up winning.
Why?
Turnout. Polls don’t gauge the level of overall turnout and-which side-turns out more of their base.
And given that all of these swing states are tight...it’s all about turnout now. Obviously.
But even Charles franklin admitted that we could see a repeat of 2016 and see trump win Wisconsin, anyway, as he did over Hillary last time.
Mu has the race....
So, right there, you say-there are enough voters still out there to-if they break more heavily for trump- could make the difference. It’s what happened in 2016.
So that margin narrows even more...if the democrats don’t follow thru on their vow to swamp the voting booth with trump haters.
And again- last time this poll had Hillary leading by six.
And if you look at how the polls have narrowed in most of the swing states this week...following joe Biden’s vow to kill off fossil fuels and the still-growing hunter Biden scandal...
What we appear to be seeing is a repeat of 2016.
And I know-
I know that the east coast pundits are insisting this is nothing like 2016...but....eh...it’s looking an awful lot like 2016. And they know it.
The insiders are a little upset that Joe Biden and his team started coasting about ten days out. All sorts of democrats are a little upset over this talk of being in a ‘prevent defense’.
And i know I’ve been saying this week-don’t read too much into the early ballot returns...but franklin’s survey found of the people who had already voted..
Joe Biden is not at the 70 percent threshold that his party believes ensures a democrat win in these states. The party itself has been saying-if we beat the republicans by getting 70 percent of the early votes...we win.
Well- in Wisconsin they are about six points shy of that at the moment...
And the other thing that leaps out: nine percent?
Nine percent? Declined to say how they are voting?
Wow. That’s a significant number and which voters do you think are telling pollsters that they won’t reveal how they voted?
Come on.
Those are trump voters. So the real mix for early voting in Wisconsin here is probably about 64 to 34 percent and not nearly enough of a lead for democrats to start tap dancing.
And by the way?
This is also interesting. I would have thought this number would be better for Biden: Biden is only ahead of trump on quote...likeability...by a few percentage points.44 percent of respondents viewed trump favorably, 49 percent Biden favorably.
That’s not much of a gap for ole likeable Joe.
So-bottom line, by friends, this is not a great poll for Joe Biden...and has to be deflating to democrats after the earlier, ridiculous polls that came out this week...claiming Biden had a 9 to 17 point lead.
Not hardly.
In fact- Biden’s gap with trump in the final week is smaller than Hillary’s was. And Hillary ended up losing with a six point lead in this very poll.
Further-there’s no evidence that i see in this poll that speaks to a ‘different situation’ than in 2016.
The lefty pundits at CNN and MSNBC keep trying to convince themselves that, yeah but, 2020 is very different than 2016.
No. It really doesn’t seem to be.
It all comes down to turnout. In 2016, the democrats admittedly had a power outage with black voters and young voters. Some old white cracker didn’t much appeal to them.
And so, the biggest question to me, is will Black voters turn out in force again, in Wisconsin. Repeat the levels they hit during the 2012 election, at least...in order to help the democrats win back the state?
Also- the youth vote. Covid-19 has kept the activist left from organizing on campuses. It’s difficult to gauge how much that matters. But without kids on some campuses and having campus life disrupted to such a large extent this year...there’s a real question as to whether the youth vote turns out in force for Biden.
Neither are guaranteed. A trump victory in Wisconsin is at least as plausible as a trump win in 2016- probably more so.
Don’t get discouraged yet. Get out and vote and take five friends.
The enthusiasm gap is very real-including here in Wisconsin- and the trump campaign is still storming all of the critical states, including Wisconsin.
Joe Biden is set to -finally-make his second stop in Wisconsin on Friday...and he wouldn’t be doing that if his campaign believed they have Wisconsin won...correct?
So- a last minute stop by Biden tells you that this state is clearly in play. And it will only be sleepy Joe’s second stop...
Whereas trump has been here numerous times. Was in Wisconsin twice this week and has now scheduled a third stop- in green bay- on Friday.
The Trump campaign-really-wants Wisconsin. It helps with several scenarios to get them to 270 electoral votes.
And if Biden is ‘coasting’, and if the Dems really consider Wisconsin sewn up for him, then why has he scheduled a last minute stop in Milwaukee on Friday?
photo credit: Getty