Jay Weber Show transcript 7-20-21
So...my friends, I see an increasing number of ‘think pieces’ on the left-wing media sites starting to admit that Joe Biden is losing support in middle America because he ran as a centrist and is now trying to force the largest and most socialist government expansion onto the country since FDR....
And as that starts to become a reality-you can see it in the GOP fundraising numbers...and in the results of a few special elections around the country.
And I always caution not to read too much into the results of special elections, because the pundits on both sides of the aisle always want to-
Every race-no matter how small or low turnout- the media wants to build into some ‘proxy’ race for the next regular election- and they are not-
And so- while I caution against using special elections to predict regular elections...
An interesting thing-did- happen in a special election in Georgia two weeks ago: a district that is in suburban Atlanta that saw their share of GOP voters hit an all-time low in the November election...saw a massive, massive rebound to the point it represented a 22-point swing toward republicans, in a critical Georgia district.
If Donald Trump lost because he was ‘weak’ in the suburbs, well, this suburban district came roaring back to the ‘right’, now that they have seen that Joe Biden was lying to them during that November election.
The democrats were so overjoyed when they finally won back Georgia’s US senate seats- due to Georgia’s stupid ‘jungle primary’ laws...and a turbulent, controversial time as trump supporters broke with Georgia GOP lawmakers for not contesting the results harder-
That that -was-a unique circumstance. And this special election seems to indicate that the Georgia republican party is back on track-and focused on winning elections again.
That race, alone, if Raphael Warnock loses next year, could have republicans retaking control of the senate.
Republican enthusiasm-and their digital fundraising efforts – are back up, in anticipation of next fall.
Meanwhile- the republican party itself is going to have the same question hanging over it for the next four years: is Donald Trump going to run in 2024, and if so, is he going to ‘play nice’ with party leaders and GOP candidate’s next fall.
Because....so far...while most of trump’s efforts have been positive, in terms of firing up the base and focusing his criticism on Biden.... he has also, at times, gone out of his way to launch nasty attacks at fellow republicans for no reason.
He is currently on some ‘anti-Mitch’ jihad that serves no constructive purpose.
He just cannot help himself.
And for the record-no- those sorts of attacks do not help him with the GOP base.
He is splitting the straw polls at conservative conferences with Ron DeSantis, yes, but this party’s faithful are far more divided on the question of trump now that he has been out of office for six months.
There is a new poll out by John Bolton’s Super PAC-
And admittedly- Bolton hates Trump and wants to force the party to move past him-
But Bolton’s poll also asked questions of republican party members that aren’t normally asked by other pollsters...and they provide a clearer picture of where the party base is-on trump.
My gut feeling on what could be the worst-case scenario for 2024: Trump runs and wins the republican primary easily...but then cannot win the general election because any cross-over democrats, moderates and independents that once supported him- don’t anymore. They just ‘don’t want to go back there’, to that place where trump is dominating every bit of news coverage every day and life is fatiguing because if it. Everything is a fight. Everything is an outrage. Once a week he is punching republicans and small children...
Ugh. The trump era was fun, but it was also exhausting. And while I would vote for trump again in a heartbeat, my worry is that the group of people who decide these elections would not.
This survey by Bolton’s PAC reveals a republican party that is split on the question of trump in 2024, and it doesn’t surprise me in the least.
Still- politics is about ‘moments’, and if 2024 rolls around and illegals are still pouring over the border in record numbers, and the economy has tanked again, and Biden and Kammy have this country so screwed up that the American people are fed up-maybe a majority of them-would- vote for trump again. I’m not saying he-can’t-win in 2024. I’m saying the conditions would have to be right.
And let us face it- if the country is that screwed up- any top republican-should be able to beat Biden or Harris then, no? It does not have to be trump.
Oh-and on the question of Kamala Harris: a new poll shows that six in ten Americans agree that she is not ready to be president.
So far? In six months? She has not impressed the American people.
Ah...62 percent is not ‘the middle’. That is a statistically significant tip -against-Harris.
I do not know if there is a more interesting political story in DC right now-than kamala Harris.
Biden’s team selected her as a running mate because they had promised the left-wing grievance groups that they would select a Black Woman...and she was the only high-profile black, female democrat who fit the bill.
And they got the Indian kicker. Her mother is Indian, and so Indian Americans could embrace her as one of their own.
They did not. Nor did Black Americans. Most saw right thru her false resume and false sincerity.
But-the ticket won, and that is all Biden’s team needed her for: the election.
So, they tossed a hundred-dollar bill at her and told her to get out- go find the VP’s residence....
And have treated her shabbily ever since.
Joe Biden’s team has set her up for failure by giving her a border to fix that they have no honest intention of fixing....
And she has not helped herself out by being a gaffe machine and an impossible witch to work for, as an added feature.
Not only is Kamala Harris a vapid fraud and disingenuous pretender-but she is an infuriating witch to work for- who blames everyone around her for her shortcomings and screams at her staffers.
No one wants to work with-or for-this woman.
She is quite the combination.
As a Washington examiner piece recently put it: Kammy is just bad at politics. Quote.
Harris has not proven much better at retail politics either, given that she ended her presidential campaign in 2019 before democratic primary voters even went to the polls. She was the strongest candidate on paper, and her campaign looked like a powerhouse on the day it was announced. In the end, she was nearly a nonfactor in the entire primary because the idea of Kamala Harris is stronger than the politician herself.
It’s no surprise that high-ranking democrats are increasingly concerned that a Harris-led ticket in 2024 would be Hillary Clinton redox. Truth be told, it’s not clear that Harris would be able to fend off primary challengers to even secure the nomination. As a candidate, she is a paper tiger. As a politician, she is an out-of-touch weather vane. She has failed upward to this point, and it’s clear that she has hit her ceiling.
I would agree with that, completely. And i will predict right now that -if Joe Biden chooses not to run in 2024- Kamala Harris-will not- win the nomination.
The party will choose a stronger, more likeable candidate.
The word in dc is that Pete Buttigieg -who is Biden’s transportation secretary now-is already engaged in quiet campaigns to cut Kammy off at the knees...because he wants the nom if Biden doesn’t run.
And look-if her fellow democrats- most of whom are more strategic and savvy-engage in ‘Kammy killing’ campaigns for the next three years, there’s no way she’ll be the party standard bearer in 2024.