Jay Weber Show transcript 10/21/20 7:10am
My friends- the evidence of a pending trump win is growing-the network polls that showed Joe Biden so far ahead are tightening again- as we conservative talkers predicted they would-
It’s like clockwork- as these left wing news outlets and pollsters who tried to scare and discourage republican voters...suddenly decide that they’d better try to get the final margins correct....so their reputations don’t suffer-
I told you these polls would start to narrow as we got closer...and frankly...if you erase the last two or three weeks of polling and only pay attention to this week’s findings-
Gee- what a surprise. We have a race again.
Let me run thru the recent evidence that the momentum is on trump’s side...as we hit midweek here....
There’s the Investor’s Business daily pollsters-who were the group who -absolutely nailed- the 2016 race. They were the only major polling firm to predict the trump win and even the margins by which he won-
The most accurate pollsters of 2016-
Pollsters who had Joe Biden several points ahead last week- now have it a two point race again-with trump closing. IBD says it 48-46...in a four way race with the Green and Libertarian candidates mixed in....
Trump Vs. Biden Race Tightens, Suddenly Looks Like 2016 In Latest IBD/TIPP Presidential Poll
This poll also has Biden winning with both senior and suburban voters...and if that’s the case...trump is going to have a tough time winning. If a large chunk of senior and suburban voters abandon Trump...no level of new minority or third party voters is going to be able to make up that gap.
That’s my biggest worry for the president, at this moment. It has been an enduring finding of all of these polls. Those I trust and those I don’t.
But on the ‘good news’ front...Joe Biden’s lead in Pennsylvania has magically been cut in half. And this is the state that, more than any other, could decide the election.
Now the really good news: this is based off of that stupid ‘real clear politics’ average of polls that averages out a bunch of polls taken over the last two or three weeks. In order to have this average be cut in half what has to have happened?
It has to mean that the last several-most recent -polls out of Pennsylvania show this to be a dead heat. Correct? Some number of- very positive polls for trump- were needed to take an 8 point average and bring it quickly down to four.
So the way i read this is- the most recent polls in Penn show the race tied there.
In fact-it’s the same story in all of the swing states. These are now statistical dead heats in this stupid real clear politics average:
Trafalgar group puts Biden up by only one or two points in Wisconsin, too. These are all statistical dead heats-based on the polling done by these unreliable, left leaning pollsters....correct?
And so -then consider the so-called silent Trump voter. Reince Priebus puts this at three to four percent. So do several of these more careful pollsters: how much could these polls be off, due to trump and GOP voters who don’t want to participate?
Most insiders who believe this group is out there-say four points.
So-let’s give trump the four points in each of these polls.....and voila!Folks. Trump wins every state.
Pennsylvania would still be a dead heat but adding four wound have trump winningArizona by a point...Florida by three....North Carolina by two...Wisconsin by three and Georgia by three. And by the way- the trump campaign is confident they will win Michigan.
This is the ballgame, folks.
And historically? How likely is it that the mainstream polls would be off by four points?
Very likely. That’s how much they were off in 2016...and 2004. And the polls were wrong by even wider margins....before the 2000 election.
These so-called ‘quality’ pollsters have gotten better in their predictions in the modern era but have also been off somewhere between two and six points in every election since 2000.
So suggesting-or hoping-that these polls aren’t measuring a four percentage point silent vote for Trump is not...bologna. It’s not wishful thinking.
Another ‘shocking’, ‘unexpected’ Trump victory seems to be forming and it’s not a surprise to his supporters or anyone away from the east coast who is being honest with themselves.
I’ve been pointing to all of the cross currents-
All of the evidence I’m seeing that runs counter to this idea that Joe Biden is winning this race.
It’s why I’m saying-i know it sounds stupid-but ‘other than the polls, there is no evidence Joe Biden is winning this race’.
well, Jay, you dope. The polls are the best measure we have of the race.
But are they?
History shows they haven’t been in the past.
So you look at other evidence...and all of it points to a more organized and energized Trump effort.
The Republicans have outdone expectation when it comes to registering new voters in the most critical states: Arizona, Florida, and Pennsylvania.
Then you have Latinos for Trump and blacks for Trump. Trump is showing a fifteen percent leap in the Latino vote in Florida, versus Biden, as compared to when he ran against Hillary.
In general- polls show him outdoing his 28 percent number from last time by six to ten percentage points now.
With the black vote- trump’s approval rating with black voters is about 40 or 45 percent. That’s ‘approval rating’...not how many are going to vote for him. But if he gets just 12 or 14 percent of the black vote...it would all-but secure wins in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania for trump. Maybe even ensure a win in WI or Minnesota.
I keep coming back to the enthusiasm gap. A recent pew poll showed just 46 percent of Biden supporters say they strongly support him. That compares to 66 percent of trump’s base. That’s a 20 percent gap.
Let’s add that to the recent gallop poll that showed nearly six in ten voters say they are better off than they were four years ago-which is a better number than either Obama or George W. Got before they won re-election.
Folks-that is significant-because as long as i have been alive...which is 54 years now...more Americans have always, always, always, said they are democrats than republicans.
This suggests a large number of democrats have shifted to labeling themselves independents...and...if you look at 2016....five percent more respondents said they were Democrats than Republicans and trump still won.
Four years later--five percent fewer Americans are willing to label themselves democrats.
It speaks to a level of disillusionment with the party that actually has those bleeding members.
Then there’s the ‘who will win question’...that pollsters ask. It’s not: who do want to win?
It’s who do you think will win?
Again- nearly six in ten say-Trump.
I have all of this evidence-and more-that points to a Trump win being more likely than not...two weeks out.
Come on, people. You can’t tell me you are comfortable with the belief that Joe Biden is up to this task. Even for a year. Much less, four.
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