Jay Weber Show transcript 4-3-25
So... President Trump announced his tariff plans yesterday-
I believe Trump is going to use these tariff threats to cut fairer trade deals with our 15 or 20 top trading partners, with him eventually canceling them.
I could also see him keeping the reciprocal tariffs in place against smaller countries whose 200 or 400 percent tariffs on our goods are so protective that any trade with them a total ‘one way’ street.
He could afford to leave those in place- against- say- Myanmar. If they tax our imports by 200 percent...then we’ll tax theirs that highly if they want to do any trading with us-etc.
But in general, I’m viewing this as a temporary threat to readjust our trade imbalances with most countries.
For example- Trump’s treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, put out a list of the ‘dirty dozen’ countries, as he calls them: those screwing us the most when it comes to trade imbalances.
And yes, China’s on it-
He says these countries account for nearly the entire one-trillion-dollar trade deficit....and so trump wants changes.
And as you might have heard already: even before the news conference yesterday, officials from Mexico, Canada, Israel, Vietnam, and Thailand- at least- were already saying: we will drop our tariffs down to zero if trump and the
US will do the same.
Those foreign leaders are terrified at losing access to the American market for entire ‘categories’ of their homegrown businesses- and they should be.
Doug Ford-the premier of Ontario Canada, is one of the people who has been ‘talking big’ about how Canada’s going to bring a trade war down on America if Trump wants one...
And yesterday...he was capitulating. Saying. We are willing to drop all tariffs against US goods if Trump is willing to do the same.
Well, if Canadian leaders agree, Wisconsin dairy farmers would benefit by having 200 percent Canadian tariffs against our milk, butter and cheese dry up.... opening a new market for their products in Canada. That’d be a win.
Trump is trying level the playing field on global trade and/or encourage more foreign manufacturing to move here. Because -it is- important for our own economic strength and national security.
But huge numbers of economists disagree with the tactic...because tariffs only tend to bring higher prices and less cross-border commerce. And that’s not a ‘positive’ for our economy.
The other part of this is that a member of trump’s team seems to be lying about how these tariffs not being a tax-or raising prices.
Well-of course they are. And they will.
If Trump is going to impose widespread tax increases on an ‘already slowing’ economy- it could lead to trouble.
It could lead to a recession.
I don’t think trump is dumb enough to run us into a recession-but i think a few of his advisors are- and so, let’s not pretend there isn’t reason to worry. In fact- president trump clearly thinks this is important enough to the long-term health of America that he thinks it’s worth some economic damage-short term.
Let’s hope he’s right.
Because -if Americans are being told-after four years of insane Biden-era inflation-
That they are now supposed to accept the pain of even higher prices, a slowing economy, and a dramatic drop in their 401ks-
The bulk of the American people are going to turn on Trump and the republicans before the fourth of July. And he may never get their support back.
This is the guy who was supposed to fix the economy and end the high prices of the Biden era. If he only makes it all sorts- we are screwed on the right side of the political aisle.
Which is why I assume it’s largely a bargaining strategy and a way to quickly realign our worst trade deficits.
And if it brings better-paying manufacturing jobs back to the u-s....great.
But i don’t think Trump is dumb enough to stick with these tariffs long enough to touch off ‘no win’ tariff wars and/or cause a recession.
photo credit: Getty Images
audio version of the segment here > Trump announced his tariff plans