Jay Weber Show transcript 10-21-24
I stated earlier that I -do believe-that if the election was held today, Trump would win both Pennsylvania and Michigan. He might even maybe eek out Wisconsin-but-I’m feeling good about mi and Pennsylvania- and if he wins either of them.... He doesn’t need Wisconsin.
One reason that Trump has a better chance of winning those other two states-than he does here- is because pollsters are seeing a new sag in both Arab and Jewish voters for the democrats- over the Israeli war. And it serves them right.
From the very start-and i mean- from October 8th of last year- when Joe Biden and his horrid team of advisors sat down to figure out ‘how to play this thing’ to their best political advantage-
They decided they were going to try to parse it. Nuance it. Pretend to be pro-Israel, given what a great and important ally Israel has been since its inception-and in the region.... while also trying to virtue signal and help protect the pro-Palestine side of the argument- including-
Ludicrously-
Making diplomatic moves and projecting policies that would have only ensured Hamas and Hezbollah-and their butcherous leaders- would continue to live and thrive.
The net result is Biden/Harris and the democrats only managed to offend both sides- with their weak and pathetic games....and growing duplicity.
The net result is there are fewer Jews in America who are saying they will vote democrat than at any time since the Reagan era-
And- Arab voters appear to have abandoned kamala Harris ‘all together’.
You remember that coalition of Muslim and Arab American leaders who started the ‘abandon Biden’ campaign in the primaries-
Well, they’ve turned it into an ‘abandon Harris’ campaign in the general...and instead of just encouraging Arab voters to ‘not vote Kamala’...the group has decided to actively use it’s organizing power to expand this message into the other swing states- like Wisconsin and Georgia.
I always question whether these shifts with voters are ‘real’...but both CNN and NBC this weekend had the same experience: talked with small groups of Arab voters and couldn’t find anyone who was voting for Kammy.
Greg-let’s start with the CNN reporter...who said on the Abby Phillips show....
This is a foreign affairs reporter, apparently: Reena Ninan- who is quote...a well-connected voice in the Arab business community:
Abby Phillip was blown away, of course-
As were her co-hurts over at MSNBC- when one of their reporters spoke with a panel of Arab voters.
Now-
Since this is radio- it’s important to know that this was a panel of- four.
The headlines afterward were a little misleading on social media.... about how...in an ‘entire panel’ of Arab voters...none of them was going to vote for Kamala.
Well. It was four people. Calm down.
But, even if this is just anecdotal-it proves that the ‘worry’ is real for the democrats and the kamala Harris campaign....and the shift over to stein appears to be real, as well.
These were Arab voters in Dearborn, Michigan.
So-
You heard three of the four are shifting over to stein- and they are a few hundred thousand Arab voters in that so-called ‘Dearborn Arab community’.
This is a smallish-but significant- Arab community. ‘word’ probably travels fast-and effectively-throughout the Arab community in Dearborn on things like this-
And so, if i was the Harris campaign, I’d be doing some ‘deep dive’ polling into that Arab vote in Michigan, just based on these few responses.
Really?
Out of four Dearborn Arabs, three are voting Stein? Has the ‘abandon Harris’ effort genuinely been that effective?
If so, people- the democrats might already be screwed in that state.
As someone who puts almost no stock in most micro-efforts to sway voters like this- I have been blowing off this ‘abandon Biden’/’abandon Harris’ campaign as largely insignificant.
But if even a small panel like this is either ‘stay home’ or ‘all stein’.... the dems could have a huge problem in Michigan.
And with no time -and no way- to ‘turn it around’.
If the Kamala Harris campaign hasn’t been aware of this ‘code red’ situation with Arab voters in Michigan and isn’t already making efforts to reverse things, they’re screwed.
I assume they’ve had internal polling for some time that has been telling them this is a problem.... but.... the intractable problem for the Harris campaign is- how do you turn it around?
If the Arab community isn’t buying her weak appeals for a cease fire....and she won’t call for an arms embargo against Israel....
How does she win back their votes? Especially in this late hour?
The answer is-she doesn’t.
To button up the ‘Arab vote’ topic given that both Penn and MI have smallish but sizable Arab populations of the sort that could tip a tight election-
And yes, I think Trump would win those two states- as of today.
Listen to van jones- Obama’s old operative- who’s an analyst over at CNN and is one of those that will occasionally tell the truth.
He’s talking about the Black and Muslim vote here- after Jake Tapper sets him up.
Van Jones: Kamala Should Be in ‘Turnout Mode’ But She’s Still in ‘Persuasion Mode’
It’s neck and neck...and most of the final states open up for early in-person voting today...because we are now just 15 days away from election day.
photo credit: Getty Images
audio version of the segment here > The Arab "abandon Kamala" movement is real