Jay Weber Show transcript 10-9-24 7:10 am
Greg- i think? -we broke this news on the show yesterday, and probably should have made a bigger deal out of it:
Yesterday morning, we talked with Eric Hovde about his ever-tightening race against Tammy Baldwin-
And mentioned that the Cooke political report had just moved the race from ‘leans democrat’ to ‘toss up’.
I didn’t fully realize that the Cooke report had -just done so-and that meant that this was bigger, national news.
It went national shortly after our interview...and it was included in a story Dan Bice did for the J/S that had Tammy Baldwin admitting that-she-doesn’t believe the latest Marquette poll, either-which shows her comfortably ahead.
She admitted to Bice that her internal polling shows this is a one- or two-point race-which other pollsters have been suggesting for a few weeks now.
Baldwin told bice-quote:
"growing Democratic fears over how quickly the Wisconsin Senate race is tightening." "I've seen my internal polls," Baldwin said. "It's very close."
Bice then goes on to claim that Eric Hovde-has not-been overwhelmed with cash on behalf of Tammy Baldwin.
I say ‘bologna’ to that contention...given that outside groups have dropped nearly 100-million dollars into this race-and it’s been heavily on Baldwin’s side.
She also did her typical thing-in which she lied about how she’s just a simple Wisconsin girl, ‘not a millionaire’, and so she’s being outspent.
Bull-plop to that, too. She’s a sitting incumbent democrat who, since she’s female and lesbian, has a constant flood of money dumped onto her by left wing activist groups, women’s groups like Emily’s list and planned parenthood, as well as alphabet groups-
Tammy Baldwin has never ‘hurt’ for money in a single campaign she’s run-and she’s not being outspent now.
She mentions the 17 million that Mitch McConnell and senate republicans are finally, finally, finally spending on Eric Hovde after he’s used a huge amount of his own money to keep this race close...
But what Baldwin didn’t mention to bice is that her campaign has just made huge-last minute- ad buys on statewide tv and radio stations-including this one.
And those figures-are not included-in the ones that bice cites. He says Baldwin’s campaign has spent about 42-million on advertising and Hovde about 20-million- at the start of this month.
So how is that ‘not’ a huge cash advantage for Baldwin?
And still- Hovde’s kept it close.
I asked him ‘why’ when i had him on yesterday, and he had a great answer: I’ve got the issues on my side and I’m talking about them as I travel the state. All she’s doing is bashing me:
According to the polls- this flood of negative advertising and smearing against Hovde hasn’t really been working.
The Cooke report has tammy up by two.
Trafalgar by two.
Marquette and NY Times more like 7 or 8-
Which has Dan Bice, of course, going to Charles Franklin for a defense of Franklin’s numbers.
And i have nothing against Charles Franklin, and his numbers could end up being correct, but i doubt it-given how close the presidential race is here.
Franklin tells Bice- hey, in every race you are going to get the incumbent scaring his or her grassroots by saying ‘this is a close race’. They aren’t going to admit they’re winning easily. They want the donations and the outside money to keep flowing-and flow in late.
Which is true...
But in this instance-there isn’t this much ticket-splitting going on. There can’t be.
If Donald Trump is only down by two in Wisconsin...then Hovde’s not down by seven or eight. At least that’s not what we are going to be seeing come election day.
If Trump wins-Eric Hovde likely wins. If it’s a very close presidential race-well then- a small percentage of ‘cross over’ voters might save Tammy Baldwin.
But if trump wins or loses by a hair-Tammy Baldwin is not going to beat Hovde by five, or seven, or eight points.
It’s also not unusual for Wisconsin republican candidates to be behind in the polls for an entire race-and end up winning it- ask both Ron Johnson and Donald Trump about it.
Polls in Wisconsin-which is still a blue state in presidential races- never show the republican ahead. Ever. In my lifetime.
We won’t see Trump or Hovde leading this year- but gee- both Wisconsin and national democrats sure are worried about Trump and Hovde, anyway, aren’t they?
Because they know the polls can ‘mean nothing’ once the voting starts.
photo credit: Getty Images
story credit: jsonline.com
audio version of the segment here > Baldwin admits her race now a toss up with Eric Hovde