Jay Weber Show transcript 10-1-24
Hey-good news for Eric Hovde: his race is close enough that mitch McConnell and Senate republicans have decided to spend some major money-last minute-in Wisconsin, hoping to help him beat Tammy Baldwin.
I’ve been talking about the republican’s best paths to taking over control of the US Senate: they only need to pick up two seats- if they can hold the ones that they have-
And they should be able to-
And so- they need two in order to take senate control and the race in West Virginia, where Joe Manchin is retiring, is a virtual lock for them-given how dark red west Virginia has become.
And so that means- they only need one more-
And out of a handful of close races- gee-
Democrat Jon Tester’s race out in Montana has looked-for weeks-like it’s slipping out of democrat hands. In fact, scuttlebutt suggests that chuck Schumer and the senate democrats are about to ‘cut bait’ on trying to keep Jon Tester’s seat. They’re ready to stop dumping tens of millions of dollars down that rat hole to try to keep that seat- as tester’s challenger opens up 7-point leads in the polls...
And so- that could be the GOP’s ‘flip seat’...with 34 days still to go....and with Mitch’s senate team sitting on tens of millions of dollars yet to spend.
So-where to spend it?
Well- as I said a few days ago: many of the seats that the democrats and the dem strategists were certain were safe- like Tammy Baldwin’s here.... Bob Casey’s in Pennsylvania...etc.
They have, instead, tightened up over the last few weeks. Including the Hovde/Baldwin race here. The Marquette and NY Times polls both want to insist there is still a four to seven point gap between Hovde and Baldwin-but other polls have shown a one point race.
Therefore, McConnell and company are adding Wisconsin to the list of states they are making last minute ‘plays’ for.
Michigan’s an interesting case: the house democrat who is running for that senate seat, Elise Slotkin, was expected to have that race ‘well in hand’.... but.... her lead has evaporated late...and she created a stir yesterday by admitting to donors that-her internal polling-
The polling that she is doing just for her campaign and not for public consumption-
Shows Kamala Harris is unpopular and running behind trump in Michigan.
Uh-oh.
This is something that I can certainly believe-given how recent polls have trump either winning by a point or two in Michigan- or shows Kamala up by only a point or two. In Michigan.
Her lead there should be far more comfortable than that-but hey-
She’s underperforming with blacks and Hispanics. She’s underperforming with union members and blue-collar voters.
She’s hated by the same ‘never-Biden’ groups of Muslim and anti-Jew voters in that state-who amount to about 400-thousand voters....
Yes. Kamala’s going to have a harder time winning Michigan than most pundits expect. Yeah.
The republicans who are taking on these well-healed incumbents have been outspent in a major way-including Hovde here in Wisconsin-
So, at last minute infusion of 17 million in ads to help him out is great news. It means McConnell and senate republicans have polling numbers and information that suggests the Wisconsin senate and presidential races are legitimately ‘in play’.
If they weren’t- mitch wouldn’t waste the money here.
This news had to be a boost for the horde campaign. This is the first money that Mitch’s so-called ‘senate leadership fund’ is spending here.
It’s also the first money it’ll be spending in Michigan-to help slot kin’s GOP challenger, mike rogers.
The other race is to help beat Dave McCormick beat veteran dem senator Sherrod Brown- who might be the most surprising dem incumbent to be in trouble, here.
When the election season started, i didn’t believe that either tammy Baldwin or Sherrod Brown were really vulnerable here- but here we are-about a month away from election-day -and they are both in races that are ‘essentially tied’.
Great.
It’d be great to send a second republican senator to dc to represent Wisconsin, wouldn’t it?
And it would be especially satisfying to beat tammy Baldwin and send a second republican to dc as a senator -having won a statewide race-in the very year that Tony Evers and the democrats insisted that ‘if they just had fairer maps’ they could prove Wisconsin is a heavily democrat state.
Can you imagine if- the very same year in which WI democrats cheat to get better electoral maps for themselves....and they are motivated to ‘prove’ that Wisconsin is a solid blue state- a republican wins the only other statewide race on the ballot- aside from trump?
That’d be fantastic.
And having already seen some of the latest projections from Joe in Minocqua- our states best ‘data guy’.... I can tell you that it looks like republicans will keep control of both the assembly and the senate if this is -at all- a close presidential race. If Trump wins by a little- the GOP keeps both chambers of the legislature-
If trump loses by a little- the GOP keeps both chambers of the legislature.
Only a blowout-either way-would affect control in Madison- according to Joe Hendricks’ latest number crunching.
Meanwhile- back in the US Senate-Schumer and the democrats- along with leftist outside groups-have been pouring money into Montana to salvage Jon tester....to no avail. His race looks like a lost cause...
And so...the claim is.... Schumer and the senate dems are pivoting to find that one GOP race that they could win- to keep numerical superiority.
If they can’t save tester-what GOP seat could they steal?
Well- there are so few vulnerable GOP senators this year that the dems very quickly focused on only two possibilities: Ted Cruz in Texas and Rick Scott in Florida-
And even these are long shots. We know how the issues and the history appears to be lining up for a trump and GOP win- and so- it isn’t likely that Cruz or Scott would lose their races-if Trump wins their states.
Still- Schumer and company keep claiming these two men are vulnerable-
But haven’t yet put their money where their mouth is. So far, the senate dems haven’t’ spent a time trying to change the outcome in either Florida or Texas.
That means- at least up until this point-about a month away from election day-democrats still don’t see those as truly competitive races. The real clear politics averages have both Cruz and Scott leading their dem challengers by about five points.
So, tester is toast. …but. Chucky still won’t commit to a backup plan. Just four weeks from election day? That strongly suggests he doesn’t have one.
The GOP’s attempt to retake control of the senate looks positive- a month out. Let’s hope nothing changes too dramatically between now and election day.
photo credit: Getty Images
audio version of the segment here > Only weeks away and Hovde remains in play