Jay Weber Show transcript 9-12-24 7:10 am
I started off the show by saying today’s show is about talking some of you ‘off the ledge’ after Donald Trump’s poor debate performance- and - reminding people about where we ‘really are’ as the final 55 days or so of this election season play out.
First point: Just a few days later, it’s already clear Kamala Harris did nothing to show voters why she should have this job or convince them that she can do it was well as Trump can.
It turns out the focus groups and polling done afterward actually show Donald Trump swayed more people toward his side than Kamala Harris did-
Second point- is a reminder for the audience that- Trump has never ‘won’ a debate...in the history of his political career.
This was Donald Trump’s seventh presidential debate...and according to the pundits and polls afterward...he lost.... six of the seven.
Really.
Trump allegedly lost all three to Hillary
And he still won in 2016.
in 2020, he allegedly lost both debates to Biden...and then narrowly lost a very screwed up covid election in which dems tossed out all the rules...
So don’t ‘sweat’ this one. Especially if, afterward, the undecided voters told everyone from Reuters to the NY Times to CNN that Trump had the more convincing answers and kamala still doesn’t impress them.
That appears to be the ‘real’ state of the debate 36 hours later.
Meanwhile- Trump is still leading or tied in the polls- nationally and in the swing states-this week- and I think we have to assume that the pollsters are under-sampling and under-estimating trump’s appeal again this cycle.
They did-big time-in 2016 against Hillary.
They did it-again- in 2020 against Joe Biden.
What makes us think that these polling units ‘really have their act together’ four years later?
Here are more data points to talk some of you ‘off the ledge’.... And they are data points that most Americans are never going to hear- or know:
If we use the real clear politics averages and the data analysis that was done after the 16 and 20 elections... Folks...
Pollsters had Hillary up by 8 at this point in the race and Biden up by five. Both results were razor thin.
Moreover- these pollsters really blew it in the swing states-where very little polling is done- and only a small fraction of it turns out to be accurate.
So let me remind you today that the polls were wrong by seven percentage points in 2016.Hillary was supposed to win Wisconsin by seven points-and lost.
Again-in 2020- with Biden-these same pollsters were off by six. Biden won...but in a very close race when the geniuses here doing the polling had him coasting to a six-point win here.
Nope.
In Pennsylvania-which appears to be ‘the’ must-win state this year...they under-estimated Trump’s strength by three points in 2016 and two points in 2020.
In Michigan-they were off by four points.
In every instance-except Nevada- Donald Trump’s level of support has been under-estimated...or...put another way.... the strength of his opponent has been over-estimated.
I can only assume that that’s also going to be the case this year.
And so-as voting starts next week in Pennsylvania, already, we have a race that’s basically tied ‘on paper’ when Hillary was allegedly beating trump by eight and Biden by six....at this point in their races-
And-
And-this is big-
Kamala Harris is only ‘tied’ with Trump after seven weeks of the most extraordinary gaslighting and cheerleading that we have ever seen for a presidential candidate. All the coverage. All the hype. All the ‘free and paid media’. Every advantage has been with kamala Harris and the dems for seven weeks now-
And- moving into the voting season- trump’s still leading slightly?
Come on.
This is what had me saying earlier: the basics of this race are set in stone-and they have been for probably the last year.
I would love to see a last-minute ‘October surprise’ that reminds the country about how much life under these democrats has sucked- one last time- before most of us vote...but even something like that might not matter much.
Most voters are dug in- and the undecideds and independents would seem to naturally fall to the challenger... And so...president trump-is- sitting in the stronger position.
I kind of got a kick out of the pollsters who were relaying the findings of their after-debate focus groups yesterday.
They were certain Kamala Harris had a great debate-but then they spoke to their panels of voters. Reuters, CNN, CBS, NY Times- all basically found the same thing: kamala didn’t move the needle-at all-because she owns all of Biden’s failures and refuses to detail how she would be any different- or fix any of the problems that she and Biden have caused for this country-and the globe- over the last four years.
Because today’s socialist, America-hating democrats have to be so dishonest and try to trick voters in order to win-- it has left them incapable of crafting a convincing, coherent message as to why Kamala Harris and this democrat regime should get four more years in power.
Fox news also did some focus-grouping and ‘meter-tracking’....and their pollster.... Lee Carter...insisted he was ‘shocked’ afterward.
Shocked to find that the independent voters in his focus group heavily, heavily ‘tracked’ with the republicans and Donald Trump on the issues.
This was a panel that used the meters and dials to try to gauge responses in real time-to what the candidates were saying: you know...turn the knob to the left or the right.... based on how much you are agreeing or disagreeing with what’s being said...
You’ve seen these.
Well, for some reason- Fox’s pollster was shocked that his independent panelists gave Trump high marks when he was talking about his economy and his closed borders.
That’s interesting: even democrats gave trump higher marks for his handling of the pandemic. That helps prove that kamala’s idiotic take on Tuesday- that Trump ‘left a mess’, isn’t something voters believe. Not even dem voters.
Not if they are giving trump credit for his handling of the pandemic, overall.
Another thing that had all three lines-all three groups of voters- shooting up in support of trump: when he talked about cutting taxes substantially and quote...creating a great economy like I did before.
I like to see democrats and independents strongly agreeing with that-as proof that they understand how great trump’s pre-covid economy really was. Especially in comparison to Biden.
Folks, if undecided and independent democrats are agreeing trump had a great economy...and strong border enforcement...
And if those have been consistently the top two issues for voters across the nation for two years straight now- how does Donald Trump lose this election?
The answer is: it’s not likely.
The other answer is he loses the ‘turnout’ game and the ‘on the ground’ get-out-the-vote effort.
And he could.
But that’d be the only reason that i could see trump losing this race at this point. Six weeks is still a long way to go in politics. A lot can change-and things can change in a moment-
But the truth is-the basics of this race haven’t changed in 9 months or more. It’d have to be something shocking and unexpected to change them now.
photo credit: Getty Images
audio version of the segment here > After all the gaslighting and cheerleading, Kammy isn't moving the needle