Jay Weber Show transcript 8-2-24 6:10 am
All week, I’ve been reading and hearing about Kamala Harris’ ‘skyrocketing’ poll numbers. Haven’t you?
This is yet another false narrative that her accomplices in the media and her fellow democrats-hope is true- if they simply say it often enough.
And yes, Kamala Harris’s numbers took an early jump-given what a uniquely bad candidate Joe Biden was. That was to be expected.
This race tightened right up-with Trump only leading by two or three points nationally, now, and only a head in the swing states by much slimmer margins. Wisconsin and Michigan are probably tied, sure.
But- this term: skyrocketing. Has had me wondering, ‘what polls are these people looking at?’
Well, it turns out that-from what I’ve seen-it’s a bunch of ‘off-brand’ polls that you’ve never heard of that democrats are suddenly holding up as ‘proof kamala’s ahead’.
And one tip off-for the casual consumer of news-is how quickly-or how close to the top of the article-the reporter lists the name of the pollster.
If a Harvard/Harris poll this week shows a tighter race with trump only slightly ahead- I believes it. I’ve heard of ‘Harvard Harris’ before. It seems to match with other polling, etc.
But if...a new poll this week shows kamala Harris leading trump by three and winning Wisconsin and Michigan by ten.... ‘Wait for it’.
And wait. And wait to hear who the pollster is. I guarantee you, you will have never heard of them before.
In paragraph five, you’ll finally get. The Kensington/Dunphy group surveyed 800 Eurasian trapeze artists on-line...
What?
Who?
And so-as we complete the week-I’ll draw your attention, again, to the fact that left wing news outlets like the Washington post are using the term ‘skyrocketing’ when talking about Kamala Harris’ polls-but their own data doesn’t show a ‘skyrocket’.
Yesterday afternoon, the Wash Post had a rather ridiculous graphic posted on their website that-doesn’t show- the movement their story insisted we are seeing.
For example- their own super-special Washington post polling averages have Kamala Harris, up nine-tenths of a point from where Biden was in Pennsylvania...
Up six-tenths of a point from where Biden was in Wisconsin. A whopping 1.1 points better than what Biden was doing in Michigan...and less than a point’s worth of upward moment in North Carolina, Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia.
And so- the Wash Post’s reporters and editors decided to go with the term ‘skyrocket’ to describe Kamala Harris’ movement in the polls.... when she is doing less than one-full-percentage point better against trump than Biden was in the swing states.
Now, come on.
You cannot talk about movement that is literally-fractions of a point! - and claim Kammy’s skyrocketing in popularity.
And for the record-the post’s rolling average has Harris and trump tied in Penn... with Harris leading by less than a point in WI...and trump still leading in every other swing state: up two in Michigan, four in north Carolina and Nevada, and five in Arizona and Georgia.
How? Or by what measure? Have the polls moved dramatically in kitten’s favor, here?
This is now twelve days since kitty was coronated. She’s gotten the most stellar, slanted, relentlessly joyous coverage that i have ever seen a candidate get in 35 years of doing this-
And the basics of this race are still what they were, basically, when Biden was the nominee, but before his disastrous debate.
This has been the condition of this race for at least nine months- with a different player on top of the dem ticket.
This confirms democrat statistician Nate Silver’s take on Tuesday that ‘this is still not a tied race. Trump still has the advantage’.
It basically validates the results of the Harvard Harris poll-midweek- that showed this race has been ‘reset’ to that pre-dementia debate status- but no better for Kammy..
And it’s not like there isn’t ‘new hope’ for the democrats in some of Harris’ numbers- but so far-there’s nothing to suggest that she’s going to run away with this-or her candidacy is going to change the dynamics much.
Yes, the polls are tighter. That’s not surprising.
But so far, despite the entire dem machine’s best efforts over two weeks-Kamala Harris is not ‘outdoing’ trump.
Do the polls start to flop her way next week?
We’ll see. But they aren’t yet.
And I’m not discounting them: they do prove that republicans need to take the Harris threat seriously and that a ‘get out the vote’ ground game on the GOP’s side is more critical now that Biden is no longer the nominee-
But- is it time to be alarmed yet? Is kitten really skyrocketing in popularity?
No.
I don’t normally feature ‘Vivek Ramaswamy’ on the show, but i do think he’s right on this point- which he made yesterday: the quick coronation of Kamala Harris-did- take republicans and trump’s campaign by surprise- and did rock them off their game a bit. And Vivek’s good advice is: get back to contrasting the two agendas- and the stark differences between them.
Yes, Donald Trump needs to reset. Refocus. And talk about that ‘wide, broad, pro-America agenda’ that was being featured just a few weeks ago that the RNC convention here.
And it wasn’t the fact that Biden dropped out that ‘threw the GOP for a loop’. That wasn’t really that unexpected or planned for.
What was unexpected was the very organized, very impressive, blitzkrieg to ensure Kamala Harris was ‘the nominee’ and there would be no internal fighting over it. The laser-fast coronation of a woman who every democrat in dc has been calling a dingbat and a drag on the party for five years- suddenly being dubbed the party’s next great president- and so- shut up and go with it you fellow democrats-
Yes, that stunned the Trump team and the RNC.
I’d also admit that I worry about this: there is-zero doubt- that Kamala Harris will take directions from her more experienced campaign advisors. She inherited the Biden team that already won once-and added in Obama talent that one twice-
Kammy’s just along for the ride and: tell me what to do. I’ll do it.
She’ll be easily controlled and programmed as a candidate.
Donald Trump won’t. He never has been. He never seems to take good advice. He always seems to step on his own message. He’s been very good about-not-doing that this time around -until the last two weeks got him rattled.
My worry is that trump will ignore all the good advice he’ll be getting here like, calm down. Stick more to the prompter. Stop with the list of grievances. Stop ‘riffin’.Stop with the personal insults-because you win by promoting your agenda while reminding voters about how terrible Harris’ and the democrat’s is.
That’s what will win this election: promise to make the Trump/Ryan tax cuts permanent and talk about how Harris is already saying she will let them expire-and raise every American’s tax by 3 or 3 grand a year.
Talk about your first term successes at the border and how you-will-get that job done in a second term....and the alternative is another four to eight years of perpetually open borders and a never-ending flood of downtrodden, needy illegals.
That’s what trump needs to be talking about. Not whether Kamala Harris is being honest about whether she’s Indian or Black.
Jeez- early everyone is multi-ethic or multi-racial. Get over it. You aren’t ‘scoring points’ with that one. ..etc.
Trump has no discipline and seems to take very little direction. It cost him the 2020 election. Flat out. It did. He ran a bad campaign and i talked about how he was blowing it at the time.
He’s run a very good 2024 campaign-right up to this point. Right up to the last two weeks. Don’t crumble now.
photo credit: Getty Images
audio version of the segment here > The accomplice media claim Kammy's polls are skyrocketing