Jay Weber Show transcript 6-24-24 6:40am
I was gone last week- as national polls came out suggesting a ‘new softness’ for Donald Trump among independent voters.
Pollsters’ thing we are seeing a delayed effect of the NY guilty verdict- and that it has harmed trump slightly with the independents and those in the moderate middle.
Meanwhile-trump is still leading in all the swing states-and worse news for Biden- the pollsters are adding ‘Virginia’ and ‘Minnesota’ to the list of battleground states.
Oh boy.
Those are two of the states that Trump’s campaign has been insisting they can win-and have been putting some effort into-
And after weeks of polls showing Virginia is tied- and it’s a state that Joe Biden won by ten points in 2020-
I see Emerson college’s pollster has Minnesota now tied-as well- and this was a state Biden won by seven last time around.
Emmerson has Trump’s advantage in Wisconsin at ‘plus three’...which I don’t really believe
Trump has larger leads in Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada, the other states considered battlegrounds. I notice they aren’t even listing North Carolina as a battleground state, anymore, even though it started out as a state the dems insisted they could flip in 2024.
But, lets focus on how Donald Trump’s fortunes increase in Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania in a five-way race because it’s significant.
The way the electoral map looks now-five months out- is that it’s already down to the ‘blue wall’ states: if trump can win WI, Michigan, or Penn, he’s likely to win the race.
Well- he’s tied or up by a point or two in a ‘head to head’ with Biden’...but if you add in RFK junior, Jill Stein, and Cornell West, well-Trump loses a point here, in Wisconsin, but picks up a point in Michigan, Penn, and Minnesota.
If a five-way race- (and forget Cornell west- he’s a non-factor and won’t be on the ballot virtually anywhere)-
So, let’s call this a four-way race with RFK junior and Jill Stein in it-both of them are likely to be on the ballot in all these states-
And if Donald Trump can win -even one of them-he’s likely to win his second term. If anything, with the Kennedy and Stein factor, you need to add Minnesota to the ‘blue wall’...as a new threat to Biden.
This is also true: when it comes to these blue wall states here in the upper Midwest- they all look like Wisconsin: states with primarily white and Anglo voters-across their suburban and rural landscapes-with just a few big cities that have a sizable chunk of black and minority voters in them.... which has always made it easy for the democrats to campaign in these states and keep a hold on the minority vote.
This year-Trump’s team is being smart about going into those urban areas to hold rallies. This weekend, trump made history by holding a rally in one of the ‘deep black’ districts of Philly, if you will....
The voters seemed to love it-and even the Pennsylvania news media had to grudgingly admit it was a historical and ‘refreshing’ way to see a candidate campaigning.
If nothing else, a lot of these black voters say they appreciate being recognized. Especially after this last year or so, when people in urban black neighborhoods have seen the Biden regime flood the country will illegal foreigners and bend over backward to help them and get them on the govt dole-as America’s black communities continue to be ignored by those very same dems-and continue to suffer.
There is-no doubt-that trump and the GOP have a chance to make strides with black voters this time around-if they make the effort.
And as for Pennsylvania: it’s the black vote in Pittsburgh and Philly- Philly in particular- that always seems to be putting the democrats ‘over the top’ on election night.
In 2020- Joe Biden got 92 percent of the black vote in Pennsylvania. According to a Marist poll recently, Biden’s support with black voters there is now down at 68 percent.
Folks, if Donald trump wins 20 to 25 percent of the black vote in Pennsylvania? - he easily wins the state.
I wish we had better numbers on Milwaukee, here, where most of Wisconsin’s minority voters reside.
But it can’t be good that a handful of politico correspondents recently spent some time here and have a massive ‘write up’ on how ‘if black voters will decide things in Wisconsin, Biden’s in trouble’.
In fact, politico starts out by acknowledging something I’ve been telling you: the Biden’s have Jill and Kami virtually ‘camping here’ because they know how critical it is to boost minority voter turnout here-if they want to win Wisconsin. So, they’ve been hanging out in Milwaukee and Racine.
It’s a hugely important question: will black voters here and across the country finally. Finally. Finally....do more than talk....and will they defect from the democrat party.
Long-time listeners know my skepticism here: nearly every election, we hear about how more black voters are disgusting and willing to vote republican-and then election day rolls around-and it doesn’t happen.
My friends-a lot of these polls that have had trump leading this race for six months and leading in the swing states-are predicated on a shift of black and Hispanic voters that-by God-had better show up in the exit polls-or trump’s going to lose again.
I still say there’s a better chance of those sorts of disillusioned black and brown voters ‘staying home’ rather than actively voting for trump and republicans-
But either way-we’ll take it. Either way, it’s what Biden and the democrats who are destroying this country ‘deserve’.
So, get a clue, already, and stop voting democrat.
It’s high time that larger chunks of black and Hispanic- and Jewish- voters in these major cities wake up to the fact that ‘voting democrat’ is part of what has been harming them and their communities for generations. Yes.
Step one: stop. Voting. Democrat.
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audio version of segment here > Donald Trump's new avenues to get to 270 electoral votes