If you’ve been listening to the show for any length of time-you know that I’m perpetually skeptical on the claims that republicans are getting a bigger chunk of the black and Hispanic vote.
Because that never turns out to be the case come election day.
I cannot remember a single instance; over the many years I’ve been doing this that- early and persistent pronouncements about ‘how much better’ the republicans were going to do with minorities this year- ever panned out.
Trump was supposed to be a game changer in that regard, but when you look back at the voting patterns, nope. Not so much.
I’m not picking on trump...I’m just pointing out what has happened for decades- with numerous GOP candidates: Trump’s getting 25 percent of the black vote in the polls. If he gets anywhere near that, the elections over...
Ooh...trump could get 45 percent of the Hispanic vote.... all the polls are saying it...
Then the election is held and Trump’s getting just 8 percent of the black vote-just like the last guy did-
And he’s getting 30 percent of the Hispanic vote-just like the last guy did. That is the normal historical-and hysterical pattern. Which is why I’ve never bought into it.
That said- this time around- in 2024- President Biden has been such. Awful. President-
And this time around-his economic policies and terrible inflation have been so.so. Crushing- to so many Americans -of every race and ethnicity but especially those on the lowest rungs.
This democrat president has been-so bad- that i do believe we will see a sizable and defining shift in the black and Hispanic votes.
I’m not saying trump’s going to get 25 percent of the black vote. He won’t. But he might get...12 percent of the black vote...with a huge number of them staying home.
Trump is-not-going to get 50 percent of the Hispanic vote. But i could see him getting...40 or 43 percent of the Hispanic vote...given how disastrous Biden’s economy has been for the cadre of very hard-working Hispanic entrepreneurs in this country.
Trump-will-do better with these demos.
Ruy Teixeira-the long-time democrat pollster who used to be a ‘polling god’ to democrats, until the leaders went socialist and he admitted he no longer fit in with the current vibe of the party-
Ole ruy-is still doing all sorts of polling and analysis-
And has been saying-flat out for months- in long analysis pieces stuffed with data- the democrat coalition is disappearing.
It’s sluffing off and going elsewhere as today’s socialist progressive party leaders live in their little DC bubble.
Ruy notes that-among all Hispanic voters- Donald Trump has taken 13 points from joe Biden since Biden’s last election.
Okay- let’s take Ruy Teixeira’s advice: does that sound like something the democrats and the Biden white house are going to do-between now and November? Acknowledge that none of these things are going well-and that they’ve been in charge all this time? So? Take some responsibility for it?
Or even-admit how bad crime is, the economy is, the border is?
Does that sound like something Biden’s team and the dems are going to do?
Not a chance.
For three years, all we’ve gotten is daily lying and gaslighting.
For three years, all we’ve gotten is Orwellian demands that we voters ‘not believe our own eyes’....and we are ‘not experiencing what we are experiencing’.
Biden and today’s democrat leaders are such fetid liars, such colossal gas lighters, that they aren’t going to pivot on a dime and start engaging in some honesty and taking some responsibility...with the American people.
Not a chance. Texiera’s advice here is: democrats, break out of your bubble. Break out of your comfort zone. Admit most Americans don’t like or appreciate your policies-and change.
They are not going to do that.
His final line relates to the myriad democrat voters who have slowly walked away from this party if you believe a mountain of polling over the last two years.
Texiera says: the cavalry isn’t coming to save you this time. There’s not even enough cavalry to do so anymore.
As in: you beat trump in 2020 by mobilizing your voters: making sure that huge numbers of democrats who agreed with you-actually got out to cast a vote- or mailed one in.
Texiera’s saying: this time-those people aren’t out there. You’ve turned them off. The cavalry isn’t coming in fall.
And i hope he’s right.
I still don’t quite believe it-because another thing i’ve learned over the years is that the democrats can always manage to scare and alarm and divide and agitate and trick enough voters into coming out to vote for them- when the stakes are high. And we’ve got high stakes in fall.
But we also have three defining, crippling, issues that are hitting minority voters particularly hard in the age of Biden: inflation, crime, and illegals dumped into their neighborhoods. By joe Biden.
No one should be surprised that the democrat advantage with black and Hispanic voters has hit an all-time low in gallop’s 5
The democrats have some real work ahead of them-between now and fall- to get 90 percent of black voters and 70 percent of Hispanic and young voters back under their tent-and getting out to vote for them.
As Ruy Teixeira makes clear: they’re going to have to do it thru hard persuasion. And it won’t be easy.
The thing that Ruy gets wrong is: democrats won’t try to do it by talking about the issues. Instead, they’ll try to do it with more lying and gaslighting.
They won’t talk seriously about inflation. They’ll blame it on greedy corporations.
They won’t take responsibility for flooding our cities with illegals who are going to compete for all sorts of entry level and low-income jobs of the sort that our poor urban community members need.
They’ll keep trying to blame it on republicans. It’ll still be scare tactics, racial division, and insane lying that the dems will resort to not talking about the issues, directly.
Not a chance.
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