Jay Weber Show transcript 8-17-23 6:40am
My friends- the republican candidates who want to participate in the first debate-in Milwaukee next Wednesday- need to tell the organizers at least 48 hours ahead of time-whether they are ‘in’ or ‘out’.
And so, fantastic theories about how Donald Trump is going to ‘sit’ on his decision until mere hours before the debate to build suspense and interest for himself and Fox- are all wet.
I won’t say it’s ‘impossible’ but Trump would do that-but it would have to be a scenario in which he was intentionally breaking RNC rules and being- highly- uncooperative with Ronna McDaniel and RNC leaders who he’s actually had a good relationship with, and so I see that as unlikely.
It's more likely Trump honors the 48-hour rule, and we know by sometime Monday whether he’s in or out.
I’ve floated the prediction that Donald Trump-will not- participate, after blaming his absence on Ronna McDaniel and the loyalty pledge that he refuses to sign.
If trump doesn’t want to participate- I predict he’ll go that route-so he can blame someone else...
And if he-does- want to participate. I predict he’ll say he signed the pledge but won’t honor it when it comes to some of the candidates-
Because-after all-Chris Christie has already said as much when it comes to trump. Christie said he’d sign it to get into the debates-but then not honor it if trump is the nominee-
Well- that’s openly slippery-but also openly honest-and so- trump may go that route, too.
Late last week-I talked about what a problem this could become for McDaniel and the RNC here-though. Requiring this pledge sets up a high-profile showdown that could make the party leaders either look weak, ridiculous, or too rigid.
Given that there’s all sorts of contact between these people that most Americans never know about—I am going to assume that Christie or his people have actually spoken to McDaniel -directly- weeks ago- to just how serious she was about this-when chubby didn’t want to sign it.
Really? You’re even going to block Trump if you need to?
She likely told them, ‘Yes.
If history is any guide-Trump ended signing a loyalty pledge in august of 2015-and then saying that he wouldn’t honor, it-in the heat of the primary-several months later.
We know the man changes his mind regularly-and we know that his ‘latest position’ on something never seems to be his ‘final’ position on something and so he could go that route again. Easily.
The point is: If Trump really wants to debate, the loyalty pledge won’t keep him from doing so.
If he really-doesn’t-want to debate, he could use it as an excuse.
But he is the guy- dominating- the party. He’s currently...the most important VIP in the party. If he doesn’t debate- he’s creating an intentional fissure between himself and his supporters-and the RNC.
And the questions related to how that would play out -moving forward- are significant. Because-ever since 2016 when he shocked everyone and won the nomination-trump and GOP leaders have gotten along well.
Both parties have realized that it benefits them to do so.
Remember- Trump won the nomination with no -real- campaign going and with no national network of voters or organizers in place. Reince Priebus-the party’s head- became Trump’s de facto campaign manager and helped him engineer the 2016 victory.
And ever since that time-trump and the RNC organizers-under Priebus and now McDaniel-have worked quite well with Donald Trump.
And I’m not talking about elected officials like Mitch, or McCarthy-
I’m talking about the behind-the-scenes cooperation of anonymous party organizers-and trump’s team.
They have worked well together- linked fundraising- mutually benefitted-
And unlike Barrack Obama -who wanted nothing to do with the DNC and other down-ballot democrats-
And unlike Hillary Clinton who had her team take over the DNC and then abuse it and use every resource it had-only on Hillary-
Donald Trump has been generous with his time, with his fundraising power. In sharing donations. In stepping up for the party in close races- etc.
There’s a backstory of cooperation here between trump and the RNC that most people-including most of trump’s own fans-don’t understand.
And so- if he makes a move, now, to essentially ‘reject’ the party...or take over control of it...by being the one who’s going to dictate everything or he’s going to go home-
Well-that’s going to change things -dramatically- behind the scenes and with the party.
I’m not predicting Trump will. I don’t believe he will. But it’s Trump. His campaign has a decidedly nastier, more negative tone to it this time around-and one of the things he’s been consistently more negative on-is the party and dc insiders. Right?
What’s clear is that Donald Trump is going to do whatever he wants to do-or thinks is best for him-and again-good grief.
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