Jay Weber Show transcript 10-13-22 7:10am
So. The latest Marquette poll is of ‘likely’ voters, and it has Senator Johnson up by six points over Mandela Barnes, now, and has Gov Evers clinging to a one-point lead over Tim Michels.
We’ve had other polls showing Michels tied, or even ahead by a point or two, but all the results are within the margin of error- and so all we call really say is that remains a ‘tied’ race.
Meanwhile- WI dems who want to keep the governor’s chair are going to be increasingly nervous over this lead-in the senate race.
And the reason is that ‘pro-Johnson’ voters could be enough to pull Tim Michels over the finish line...as well as Eric Toney. And other republicans on the ticket.
If the biggest race on the ticket for WI voters is perceived to be the Johnson/Barnes race, and it is that race-instead of the gov’s race, that drives turnout, well, it could be that a strong turnout for senator Johnson also helps the other republicans on the ballot.
This is what I’d start to worry about, if i was a WI democrat, given that Mandela Barnes’ campaign-really does-seem to be struggling as we move into the final weeks, here.
We’ll get to that in a moment...but ...Charles Franklin’s poll shows...Johnson is at 52 percent. Above 50 percent. We’ve talked about this, recently: for incumbents, it is vitally important to get -at least close-to 50 percent before election day.
And no, 46 or 47 percent don’t do it. Political junkies who have crunched the numbers and analyzed this over time...have stats that show incumbents who go into election day with 49 or 50 percent support are virtually guaranteed to win. If they are at 48 percent support...their chances drop to something like 50 percent...and if they are sitting at 47 percent or lower.... come election day...they only have something like a 15 percent chance of winning. It’s very slight.
And so, in the second-to-last mu poll here, and three weeks away from election day, Senator Johnson has risen to 52 percent support. And among-likely-voters.
That’s big.
Ahead by six...sitting over 50 percent...this is a strong position for senator Johnson three weeks out: especially given the relentless, nearly three year long, smear campaign that the activist groups have been running against him, hoping to disqualify him before this election year ever came around. They have failed miserably at that-and I believe- it backfired.
They villainized Johnson so early and so often-and with so many crazy smears that weren’t believable- it backfired on them.
Meanwhile- Mandela Barnes very real shortcomings and far left positions have come back to haunt him.
Voters had probably absorbed some of the smears on senator Johnson and knew nothing about Mandela Barnes and -his- record.
Folks-
These numbers from Marquette represent a thirteen-point swing from where they started. Back in august.... you’ll remember...Barnes was ahead of Johnson by seven points. At least with registered voters.
Now he’s behind by six...with likely voters. That’s quite a swing, and Ron Johnson and his team should be proud of themselves for running a savvy race. But not too proud. Now they must finish it.
And Barnes-is- scrambling.
We talked with JR Ross of wispolitics yesterday, and he confirmed that there’s a sense in Madison that Barnes isn’t answering any of these charges related to his support for defunding the police, abolishing ice, not paying his taxes...etc..
And at the same time...JR said, hey, Wisconsin democrats knew all of this was coming. It is why the republicans wanted to take on Barnes-due to all his baggage-
But if you remember, the primary candidates challenging Barnes were sort of ‘hemmed in’ and didn’t want to bring up Barnes’ dirt in the primary.
But they should have.
Alex Lasry, Sarah Godlewski, Tom nelson. All Caucasian...didn’t want to be the one to bring up Barnes’ past personal scandals-for fear of being called racist or mean and ruining their own chances...and so.... Barnes didn’t get vetted in the primaries on-any of it- and so now-in the general election, all of this negative stuff sounds new to voters.
Right?
Reince Priebus has always advocated for tough primaries, because that’s when the dirt gets shaken out that might expose an unworthy candidate early...but it’s also the time in which to bring up the attacks that the other party is going to make...so they can be answered early by the candidate, so that candidate can forge a good response to them, and so that team can gauge whether they are going to be effective, or not.
It can also do something else: it can also make a shocking revelation ‘old news’ or ‘reduce the shock’...
For example...Donald Trump’s history with women: the whole stormy Daniels story. The claim he grabbed them in inappropriate places...
All of that stuff came out in the primary, so by the time the general election with Hillary came around, democrats really wanted to use that and disqualify trump based on the claims he was a pig with women...
But...voters had already heard about it-ad nauseum- and so, when Hillary and the dems tried to use it...voters said, yeah, yeah. Old news. What else you got.
And none of those scandals hurt trump at all.
That is the other benefit Barnes’ campaign would have gotten out of these other democrats going after him in the primary for...the unpaid taxes. The using the state patrol as a personal car service. Holding up the ‘abolish ice’ shirt. Calling for defunding police...etc.
They were too cowardly to do it, or too worried it would implode their own campaign, and so now all those things are ‘new information’ to Wisconsin voters.
Lasry, Nelson, Godlewski, the WI Dem party, did republicans a favor by treating their senate candidate with kid gloves...and refusing to vet him with the voters.
And so, it leaves Barnes, three weeks away from the election, six points behind, being clobbered on his soft-on-crime, soft-on-the-border positions. And with no idea how to counteract them.
This race is going badly enough for him that Barnes is now getting national attention-for how badly it’s going for him.
Barnes and his team are going to put all of their eggs in the ‘abortion basket’ to close out this campaign.
Okay.
It won’t work.
And yes- according to the Marquette poll- Wisconsin voters opposed overturning roe by a 63 to 30 percent margin, but they also rate the issue sixth or seventh among their most concerning issues. The economy and crime are numbers one and two and on crime?Barnes’ record over the last four years has been crystal clear.
Mandela Barnes got caught up in the BLM/ antifa riot...mid-Trump era hysteria. He bought into all that dangerous nonsense. And now he’s got to answer for it to the voters.
It’s really that simple. And that is what has him down six points to Ron Johnson. It’s not that Johnson’s campaign had to ‘go negative’ and ‘tear him down with attacks’...as the left wants to claim.
No, Johnson and his campaign, along with supporters of his on the right, simply had to introduce Wisconsinites to the ‘real Mandela’.
As for the Michels/Evers race...Tim Michel’s is also improving among independent voters...and now has a one-point lead with them...
And then there’s the weird fact that there is an independent who has dropped out of that race that franklin still needs to poll for. Because her name is on the ballot.
Independent Joan Beg-linger gets four percent of the likely vote. These respondents say. It is unclear whether Franklin’s pollsters mentioned to respondents that she is no longer in the race or how this occurred.
But it would signal to me that the WI grassroots and the Michels campaign should be finding ways to get it out to voters: Joan beg-linger is no longer in the race-and she has endorsed Tim Michels.
If that sliver of voters is just ‘protest voters’ who intentionally don’t want to vote for either major party well so be it. But if some of them are just confused...making sure they know that beg-linger isn’t in the race-and she endorsed Michel’s- would make the difference in a close race on November 9th.
photo credit: Getty Images