Oh boy-
We conservative pundits have been getting it all wrong: leftist sage Michael Moore is predicting that a democrat tsunami is coming in fall...and the media is simply too white and too male to see it coming...
Uh-oh.
This is the guy who predicted that Trump would win in 2016, when no one else was, after all.
At least-that’s according to the liberals who are living in the coastal bubbles.
There were all sorts of us on the right who were predicting Donald Trump was going to beat Hillary, but apparently, none of those predictions made it into the coastal bubbles.
Michael Moore was the one left-winger predicting it, and so now they see him as a wise sage. And he’s been pushing this prediction for weeks.
So- we’ve got something to watch for now, on election night. Is history, trends, polls, and logic, right? Or is a fat tub who has made himself a millionaire by dealing in conspiracy theories and inventing false narratives right?
I’ll be on the edge of my seat.
Folks, the red wave is building. You can see it in virtually every poll result and trend.Remember- polls are useful as a generic snapshot of where any given race might be- might be- at any given time... But they are more useful in determining which candidate or party has the momentum. Veteran politicos and pollsters will look at who is trending which way...and the internal polling questions that were asked...and put far more stock in them than in the raw numbers.
And the early fall trend line ‘in favor’ of the republican candidates has been evident for about three weeks now.
I notice that Real Clear Politics prognosticators are now matching the prediction I made related to the US Senate-and where those races are.
Given that I see republicans winning all the closely contended seats and probably picking up one of those seats in either Arizona or Nevada- and the one that Hershel Walker is running in in Georgia.
That would represent a ‘flip’ for the GOP, there.
And yes, I still think he wins it.
But even if he doesn’t...there are new opportunities for GOP pickups that have surfaced late. For example- the Catherine Masto race in Nevada...yes and the Mark Kelly race in Arizona. But also...longtime incumbent Patty Murray is-genuinely-in trouble in Washington State.
There’s a race in Colorado that is close enough to flip on the dems in a good red year.
Maggie Hassan one dem who is probably safe in New Hampshire, but we’ve still got three weeks of campaigning and polling to see.
The point is- over the last few weeks...some new opportunities for republicans have revealed themselves...as the polls and the momentum have trended toward the GOP.
In the house- I’ve got two quick examples of races that were never supposed to be close. These were expected to be automatic ‘keepers’ for the democrats.
There is a newly redrawn district in Oregon that was supposed to be an automatic win for the democrats-after all-they drew it.
This is a district that Oregon dems-just redrew-to give themselves an advantage over the next decade...as they made their 2020 redistricting maps...and they might lost it, anyway.
D’oh!
And this is the same situation in Illinois. I talked about that ‘new vote for Pelosi’ that was supposed to be so automatic, which is now in peril there. But in Oregon...
The democrat’s campaign claim they have her leading but only by one. That could be a completely unexpected GOP seat- if voters turn out in droves this fall.
And in Rhode Island: deep, deep, deep blue Rhode Island...a Republican named Allan Fung is shocking the system...by leading his democrat rival. Fung has been the mayor of Cranston, Rhode Island, so he has some name recognition, and the latest two polls have him leading the democrat by five and six points, respectively.
Now, there are still 13 percent of voters undecided, but for now, Fung is ahead.
Alan Fung is leading in a deep democrat stronghold. And has had such an impressive showing that Kevin McCarthy and the GOP house strategists have decided to kick him some money and see if he really can steal what was also expected to be an ‘unwinnable’ open seat.
Its 27 days to election day...and over the last three weeks...the red wave has been gathering.
I don’t know what information Michael Moore has been reading...but unless it’s on the back of a serial box or a little Debbie’s wrapper, I doubt he sees it...
On the senate side, we just saw JD Vance -smoke- democrat Tim Ryan in their first debate, and that is an Ohio race that Vance has been leading for some time now-but only by two points. It would be the exact sort of race that Chuck Schumer and outside liberal groups should be flocking to now, in an attempt to win. But they aren’t.
Mandella Barnes had a very good quarter fundraising, and boasted about raising 20-million dollars. And yes, he has third party groups flowing into Wisconsin to help him take out Ron Johnson...but no...I don’t expect to see Chuck Schumerand his senate dems deciding to pour new money into this Johnson/Barnes race, either.
Mandela Barnes’ numbers have been trending the wrong way for over a month now, and the personal and political baggage that he is carrying has only grown.
The Johnson campaign and outside groups have really taken Barnes ‘to task’ over his soft-on-crime, soft on the border, defund the police positions...but this guy has ads running against him blasting him for supporting Biden’s inflation, for not paying his taxes, for using the state patrol as a personal taxi service, and all sorts of other things.
No-i don’t believe Chuck Schumer things tossing millions more into this effort to destroy and defeat Ron Johnson is worth it.
After all-the activist groups started this smear campaign against Johnson nearly three years ago! They’ve been running nasty and ludicrous ads smearing Ron Johnson for nearly three years-
And yet, he and his supporters could manage to erase a nine point ‘Barnes advantage’ in the matter of a few weeks?
It suggests that their insane obsession with destroying Ron Johnson failed. And very likely. Backfired.
After all-when you’ve been telling voters that he’s Hitler’s nephew and eats babies for two years. Where is there to go with the rhetoric once the election season rolls around?
And if you’ve noticed-even the MSM’s tone and focus have changed over the last few weeks: even they seem to know what’s coming: gone is the pollyannish coverage about how the democrats are having a late surge, here, and it has been replaced with the ‘this isn’t going well, is it?’ sort of coverage on their panels.
I don’t want to be -too optimistic or do -too-much cheerleading...to the point that you WISN listeners think you can stay home or not vote because. It’s going to be a wipe out.
Don’t start thinking that way- or Michael Moore just might get his surprise fulfilled. You’ve got to vote. You’ve got to work to get the GOP candidates elected. You’ve got to press your family and friends to vote.
But...the fundamentals of this election have not changed for a year...and if voters are being honest with pollsters when they say inflation, the economy, and crime are their biggest worries...
Well...then we shouldn’t be surprised to see republicans with momentum...as gas prices rise again. Grocery prices jump weekly...the stock market has gutted retirement accounts. And innocent people are being murdered, kidnapped,, and attacked in the streets like never before.
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