Jay Weber Show transcript 8-30-22 8:10am
So....the Trafalgar group, which has proven to be a more accurate snapshot of races over time than the other polls have-
Trafalgar has Tim Michels and Tony Evers tied- flat tied-at 48- in their first polling of the gov’s race here in Wisconsin.
This same poll also has Ron Johnson within two points of Mandela Barnes-which is a result that I’m more willing to believe than the Marquette polls -seven percent- gap.
But the new Trafalgar poll results simply validate what most of us believe about the races in Wisconsin this year: the polls are going to remain tight over the next two and a half months and it’s going to all be about ‘turnout’.
And to that point, Sunday’s annual ‘chicken burn’ hosted by Bob Donahl of the Wisconsin conservative digest saw a huge turnout...and based on the social media posts I’m seeing from the Michels campaign, he is being met with sizable crowds everywhere he does-
And i know that his campaign is only going to post the photos that put him in the best possible light, but it’s not like they are photo-shopping in the crowds.
And here’s another thing I’ll saw about Tim Michels: he is-all-over-this state. He’s stopping at three, four, or five events a day...based on his social media posts-and that’s very impressive.
Tony Evers isn’t doing nearly that amount of retail politicking...and given his age and overall appearance...i doubt he’s got the energy for it.
You also probably heard that President Biden is going to make a campaign stop here in Milwaukee on labor day- and according to the Evers campaign-governor Evers is going to be in attendance.
No commitment from Mandela Barnes yet, whose campaign, in typical weasely fashion, refused to answer the question directly.
Huh. It sounds like Barnes is going to duck the president, too. He’s been ducking nearly all media interviews and reporter questions as he travels the state-I’d be shocked if he didn’t duck this presidential visit.
He'll be too busy on Monday, according to his campaign: lt. Gov. Barnes is paying off all his unpaid parking tickets today...and won’t be available to meet the president.... Will be the excuse.
But Tony Evers, at the very least, has been roped into it.
This is a president with a 40 percent approval rating that democrats across the country have been trying to distance themselves from-to the point that this year’s candidates are begging the Biden white house-not to-make their state one of his stops.
See-Biden’s team wants to create some events around the country for him to engage in a ‘it’s not so bad’ tour....in which he lies to the American people and touts the govt freebees that he and democrats have rammed thru-
The ones that sparked all this inflation and continue to feed it-
And he wants to lie to crowds about how ‘this economy is improving’, and ‘you aren’t feeling the economic pain that you are feeling’....and all the rest.
The problem is that Joe Biden is-so unpopular-that none of his fellow democrats want to be seen with him-or want him to stop in their own state.
Gov Evers was asked whether he’d welcome a stop from the president last week and stumbled and stammered over the question.
I can only imagine the cursing that came from the Evers and Barnes campaigns when they got this official news yesterday: Biden is stopping in Milwaukee on Monday....
D’oh!
And despite the latest spin that has the democrat fortunes improving for fall (and I don’t believe they are) we keep getting poll after poll that proves the American people are ‘done’ with this president and his party’s management of the country.
This is going to be one of the most interesting things to me-after this election: will we very quickly get an indication that Joe Biden has decided-not to run? -in 2024?
For the good of the party and in the interest of having a robust, two-year, party primary- will the Biden’s be gracious and admit early-Joe’s not running again?
Or will they be small, selfish people and pretend as if he’s running, right up to the moment that they admit that he can’t. Will they string out some drama? Will they foolishly worry about him being a ‘lame duck’ when he already is?
Or will they -for the good of the party-admit that ‘Joe Biden is a non-factor for 2024 and beyond’...so the American people might as well forget how sucktacular his presidency is and focus on the next one?
I have explained before that the best bet for democrats to keep the white house is -that: admit early Joe’s not running so the American people have two full years to ‘forget about Biden. Look past Biden’....and the other Dems have a full two years to convince voters that -look, Biden was an aberration, but we’ve got these other amazingly wonderful socialists who can do better.
How will the Biden’s play this?
Because he’s not running again, and if he does, he’ll lose.
That IPISOS poll is bad-but it masks how bad it really is for Biden. In a different Tipp survey, only 30 percent of democrats say they want him as the nominee in 24. Just three in ten members-of his own party-want him to be the nominee.
And this was a poll of about twelve-hundred voters, so it’s a healthy sample size.
The pollster says it’s ‘good news for Biden’ that he doesn’t have a formidable party challenger.
Okay-but it’s terrible news for the democrat party!
Joe Biden has no rival. Good God, they are in dire straits as a party, if that’s the case.
And yes, I do take all of this ‘democrats are surging’ talk with a grain of salt. The dynamic of this fall race has not changed because gas prices are down little, and abortion zealots are on the warpath.
The basics haven’t changed.
Yes...and after two weeks in which polls showed democrats leading in the generic ballot question- the polls are back to showing a GOP advantage.
And that’s not the most reliable tool for predicting elections, anyway. Republicans have won ‘big’ in years in which that question suggested democrats had a significant advantage.
The far better historical predictor is the president’s approval rating. The president’s party almost always suffers losses in the house and senate in a mid-year election like this, and the worse his approval rating is-the steeper the losses are.
These left wing media sites are celebrating the fact that Biden is back up to 42 percent approval in the rolling average of polls...but that’s up about six or seven percentage points over the last two weeks and probably represents a ‘high’ for him...before we move into a fall of continued inflation, higher gas prices again, 2/3 of the country ‘bitter’ over having to pay off other people’s student loan debt....and more.
Meanwhile-the left ignores all the data that shows young people and Hispanic voters are shifting over to the GOP is significant numbers.
I hope this isn’t a mirage or a false hope-but every indication is that Hispanic voters are experiencing a sizable shift toward the GOP.
Recently, in the Miami Dade area of Florida-which has been a democrat stronghold in that state-
Even there- more Hispanic voters have been registering as republicans lately.
I sincerely hope that is the case- and that it’s not just Florida, in which this is occurring.The party members in Texas and Arizona say they are seeing the same thing, so it’s not just a heavy Cuban or Venezuelan population of the sort we see in Florida that’s migrating over-
But Hispanics in the border states, too.
photo image: Getty Images
Trafalgar poll