From the Jay Weber Podcast episode 5: America haters take over the Democrat party, the untidy end to the Iran war and the overhyping of the brioche bun.
Segment on Iran: We're going to be talking about the nonlinear nature of this Iran war and remind people that when you're dealing with evil mollahs, And when you're dealing with Donald Trump, you can't expect anything to move in a straight line here, so the overreactions to every little move or every little update on that is interesting to me
Episode Transcript (time coincides with podcast run)
(13:58):
I'm annoyed by and sort of getting a kick out
of it at the same time, how everyone's living and
dying by every pronouncement and every change going on related
to the Iran War. In the best of situations, war
is unpredictable. How both sides are going to react in
the moment is unpredictable, always right. But when you've got
the duplicitous and evil Iranians on one side and Donald
Trump on the other, why would anyone believe that whatever
(14:21):
we're being told in the moment is accurate. It was
great to hear the Iranian leaders claiming they were reopening
the Strait of Hormuz and their waters last week, and
it was of course very great and positive to have
President Trump announced the initial parameters of a peace deal.
But who didn't expect that to change within hours? I
know I did, folks. The best thing we can do
here is cheer any potential progress toward resolving this thing
(14:43):
without getting too caught up in the details, because they're
going to change. Some on the left were rolling their
eyes and blasting Trump again when the Iranians declared their
waters open on Thursday or Friday, only to have their
military menacing ships again on Saturday, Well, it was to
be expected. The Trump haters wanted to blame this Iranian
one eighty on Trump too, obviously, because they just want
to blame everything on Trump. But what happened last week
(15:05):
is this. The more moderate factions of whatever semblance of
leadership is now leading Iran. They cleared those waters open
because they do want to move forward and at least
retain the little power that they do have in their
remaining regime. This had the hardline leaders of the Iranian
military saying bull crap, rejecting that and keeping menacing those
commercial ships on their waters. The so called Iranian Revolutionary Guard,
(15:28):
this is the Mulla's personal army. They fired on two
ships on Saturday and escalated things and they made it
clear that there will be no reopening of the waters
that they control. You have to back up and realize
that what really happened here is that the US and
Israeli militaries have wiped out several layers of Iranian leadership now,
and they've done so so effectively that no one in
(15:48):
Iran really knows who's ultimately in charge. The global news
media's acting as if there's a clear government that's still
in place in Iran, with a set group of men
making these calls. Apparently it's not the case. There's far
more disagreement over who's in charge, as the military leaders
who remain in charge of that Revolutionary Guard flex their
muscle and act as if they're running things instead of
(16:10):
the Mullas who aren't dead yet. This is what happened
late last week. This was an outward display of the
sort of chaos and struggle for power that's going on
behind the scenes in Iran. There's no clear chain of
command anymore, and that's going to complicate things when it
comes to any final agreement or wrapping this thing up.
It's not going to be wrapped up cleanly. Donald Trump
and Ben Netanyahu's attacks have wiped out the first two
(16:31):
or three layers of leadership in that regime, and now
their diplomats are trying to negotiate with whoever is left over,
which is under the heading of the Iranian Foreign Ministry,
but the political leaders in that ministry don't agree with
and can control what the remaining hardliners and the government
and the military are going to do, and they just
want revenge on the West for everyone who's been killed
(16:52):
over the last few months. Apparently, some longtime pragmatist and
veteran Iranian diplomat is the one who pronounced Iran's war
reopened on Friday, only to have the head of the
Revolutionary Guard order his military to ignore that order and
keep patrolling those waters. Meanwhile, President trump ceasefire expires tomorrow.
If these Iranian leftovers can't credibly agree to a deal
(17:15):
and give their nuclear materials and other concessions, the West
needs to see the details changed daily with several people
insisting they're in charge on the Iranian side and President
Trump in charge on the other side. And he, of
course is playing this game of three D chess or
whatever you want to term it, where he intentionally keeps
people off balance and all of us. Trump often says
(17:36):
things that are less than credible or that are only
meant to confuse the media or our global enemies even more.
And so no, there hasn't been a wealth of reliable
information day to day coming out of this conflict or
in terms of when it's going to resolve or how.
But the important bottom line is the blockade is clearly working.
Iran's economy is said to be losing about half a
(17:57):
billion dollars each day, of which, by the way, way,
half of that is said to go to the Revolutionary Guard,
and so Trump's also bleeding Iran's military funding as he's
harming its larger economy. This blockade is working, and everyone
globally seems to agree. The international observers seem to agree
with this. The Iranians are really feeling the pressure. That
(18:17):
much is clear. And so in short, the president and
his administration have played this brilliantly. And I have no
doubt that Trump's willing to order additional bobbing and the
resumption of air attacks if he feels necessary, and to
what extent he feels necessary. I also have no doubt
that he's quite willing to extend the naval blockade to
keep harming Iran's economy if these leaders on the other
side cannot get their act together and agree to something.
(18:40):
Over the weekend, President Trump said that the economic blockade
might be working even better than the military campaign did
to force these Iranian leaders to capitulate. And he's probably right.
We talked about this on a podcast two weeks ago. Now,
how if Trump and Bbe play this right, and the
Iranian regime simply refuses regime change, then we can cripple
their economy for decades as a final step before easing
(19:02):
back off of this effort and really put them back
in the stone ages, so to speak. But I'm getting
a kick out of all the naysayers and all the
yipping dogs and the media on both sides of the isle,
who have done nothing other than trash the Erronian effort
and insist Trump was losing it, etc. Only to do
a one point eighty last week. Now, if you notice,
most of them are saying Trump can't take his foot
(19:24):
off the gas. This blockade is working, he'd be stupid
to end it. But these are the very people who
are trashing Trump and offering all sorts of terrible advice
over the last two months or so. And they just
keep offering their unsolicited advice, of course, based on what
they think puts them on the right side of this
issue or harms Trump the most. It's also annoying Trump
and Netanya, who have now so clearly won this though,
(19:45):
that the Trump haters and the pundits, both here and
in Europe are now pretending as if they have something
to offer. In the final days of this campaign, these
people went from Trump stupid and never should have gone
in there to He's stupid if he lets up on
our own. Now it just proves that advice from the
cheap seats here hasn't been helpful, and it proves that,
(20:06):
as has been the case through two administrations of Trump, now,
the other Western leaders and influencers have been completely useless
as this president and his administrations have have gone about
their business. I'm sure you've seen here's Starmer of Britain
and French leaders, et cetera, suddenly all on board now
that it's clear Trump and bb have this thing largely won,
and now that all the hard hard work has been done.
(20:29):
Now these little weenies and turds are stepping up and
A they're trying to take some credit for the wins,
and b they're talking as if they're boldly participating in
this effort and have been all along here. Starmer was
simply embarrassing on Friday as he insisted Britain and the
other leaders of the European Coalition, we're going to lead
the way in securing the Strait of horr Harmus for commerce, etc.
(20:49):
I mean, what a clown. This is over and he
comes in at the end to try to grab some glory.
Columnist David Strom hit on it when he said Iran
is still giving mixed signals, but the euar Uropeans are
now talking tough and pretending they contributed to a win.
So the US must have won this. I think that's
a perfect way to put it. When all of Trump's
critics on both sides of the political aisle have shifted
(21:11):
from what a stupid thing to do? Trump started World
War three? God, this is going terribly to he'd better
not let up now and pretending that they're now ahead
of the strategic game on him. I mean, yeah, it
means Trump must have won this. There's all sorts of
misinformation over what Iran's remaining mulas might have agreed to
and how big a victory this is going to be
for Trump. But we've won this, and I'm sure you've
(21:34):
seen it all over the media of the last few days,
especially on social media, these claims that Trump has agreed
to only a twenty year pause in Iran's nuclear ambitions,
and there's a claim that Trump has agreed to unfreezing
twenty billion dollars in Iranian assets in return for a deal, etc.
We have no idea whether any of this is true.
It appears that it's not. It's likely the narratives that
the lefties invented to try to trash Trump's success as
(21:56):
we go along here, but if President Trump can get
them to turn over the remaining uranium and agree to
not restart any nuclear programs, that's a major win. And
as for the money, as for the suggestion that Trump
is buying compliance or somehow capitulating if he agrees to
unfreeze Iranian assets in return for a deal, that's complete crap.
What bullplop. The left trying to make a big deal
(22:19):
out of this on social media, even going so far
as to say, well, at least Obama only gave iron
four hundred million dollars to get the hostages back, Trump's
giving them twenty billion. I have two responses to these dimwits. First,
Barack Obama literally bought the hostages back, which has been
a long time no no when it comes to Americans
being extorted by terrorists around the globe. Barack Obama literally
(22:43):
flew palate loads of cash in US currency and euros
over to Iran to buy our hostages back. Trump isn't
giving them additional money. Trump would only be giving the
Iranians some of their own money back if this is
part of any long term agreement, and by the way,
it would be rational and reason if it were. Trump
would only be giving the Iranians some of their own
(23:04):
money back if he's unfreezing funds that are irons anyway.
These are funds they haven't been able to access. Moreover,
unfreezing that money in return for the uranium in a
more peaceful Middle East is not a stupid or a
weak idea. It's actually a pretty good idea. It would
be completely reasonable. In return for the yellow cake and
you agreeing to never pursue nuclear weapons again, we will
(23:26):
unfreeze twenty billion dollars of your own assets that you
can then use to help rebuild your country. How is
that a bad or a weak deal? Sounds pretty good. Actually,
my point is, even if Trump does release some of
these funds or unfree some of these funds as a
part of a settlement here, it's not something to be criticized.
It would actually be a pretty smart and reasonable concession.
(23:47):
But if you have Trump arrangement syndrome, you aren't looking
for actual reasons to criticize Trump. You're just lashing out
any way you can. I believe it was the Wall
Street Journal editors who said Trump's naval blockade was a
master stroke and a triggered more infighting and divisions within
what remains of Iran's regime. It has them unsettled on
the Mulla's side of this equation and reopened the Strait
(24:08):
to most commerce, including oil tankers from those other Persian countries,
and so Iran's really struggling with its own little drama here,
as Trump can sit back and manage the larger picture.
But if the extremely useless and socialistic European leaders are
now puffing up their feathers and insisting that they're going
to get involved and secure the Strait after Trump has
already done that, well, then this conflict must be close
(24:31):
to being over and at least or at least they
perceive it that way. And now the Trump and Netanya,
who have done all the heavy lifting. Over the last
few days, our US military has been using underwater drones
to help locate and deal with the mines that the
Iranians had placed in those waterways, so we're going to
leave them better off. These are being called sea drones.
Are pretty cool. Actually, some work above the water as
(24:51):
surface vessels. They're just unmanned boats of that sort. And
then the others are underwater. They're using sonar to sweep
for minds without putting American lives at risk. Pre cool,
and this is literally mop up duty on what has
been a super successful military campaign thus far. Today's rabid
leftists and Trump haters will never admit it, but the
historians will probably get it right. This has been a
brilliantly managed military and diplomatic campaign by Trump and Beebe
(25:15):
against a very difficult and duplicitous enemy. Last segment we
were talking about the pile on. Now that the president
has clearly won the Iranian conflict, no one should be
surprised at this because it's become a long time standard
across both Trump administrations. Donald Trump makes a strong move
or a strong pronouncement. The Democrats, their accomplice media, the
(25:37):
Tucker Carlson, Candice Owen's nutjob wing on the right all
freak out about it, only to have Trump's move be
successful or his claim turned out to be true a
few hours or a few days later, and so everyone
just moves on. All the critics just move on. President
Trump's never given credit for his outside the box thinking.
He's never given credit for being right or for bringing
about a win. It's a frustrating standard.