Jay Weber Show transcript 7-1-25
We have several media outlets-including some on the right-accusing President Trump of stupidly putting control for the Senate ‘in play’ next fall by berating North Carolina senator Thom Tillis until he said he wouldn’t run again.
I don’t know if that’s accurate- and said so in passing on yesterday’s show.
That had a few listeners asking me where I got the information that Tillis wasn’t planning to run again, anyway. Which I never said. And so, there is no ‘information’ or fact-check to send you to.
I said ‘maybe’ Tillis was planning to retire, anyway, and Trump’s rage against him simply had him moving up the announcement. I have no idea whether Tillis planned to run for re-election either way, which was the point i was making yesterday: we can’t leap to assume that he would have run again next fall-if Trump hadn’t have been so mean to him on Sunday.
That’s the only point i was making: they’re both grown men. Tillis has taken crap from trump before because he won’t bend to trump’s will. I don’t think we can assume that...quote...trump is driving Tillis into retirement....as most media outlets wanted to suggest, yesterday.
At the same time, I’m not defending president trump. I hate this childish part of him that has him leaping to rage at, trash, and trying to destroy, anyone who doesn’t agree with him-including people who are his 90 percent allies on his own side of the aisle.
Thom Tillis wouldn’t vote for the reconciliation bill, and he’s bucked trump and senate leadership on a few other things. But he’s also not a Rino...and he’s never been as squishy as a Susan Collins or Lisa Murkowski. He’s probably got a voting record of going along with trump and senate leadership 90 percent of the time.
Why would you feel a need to push ‘that person’ out of your party? Especially if he or she is a person that is ‘about as conservative as republicans can get and still get elected’ in a swing state like North Carolina?
Understand?
Trump and his fans need to be a little smarter when it comes to keeping a coalition intact in dc that’s going to have enough members to move the trump agenda. Shoving out people who vote along with you 9 out of ten times- because they won’t on the tenth- is staggeringly stupid.
It's not mavericky. It’s not disciplined. It’s not ‘purifying the party’. It’s stupid.
And again-I don’t know if Trump’s rage at Tillis pushed him to make this decision now, or not. I’m just saying it wasn’t smart.
Trump posted three different nasty truth social posts raging at senator Tillis on Sunday...full of insults.
Why? Where does that possibly get us? In a closely divided senate. Tillis was already holding a vital seat in a swingy state.
In terms of making any lasting and important changes through the congress? Yes. If the dems retake control of even one chamber- even hope of getting more reforms done through the reconciliation process will be dead in the water, yes.
And so, president trump should be being more strategic about keeping the votes we have-and building on the majorities.
And don’t criticize me for saying it: this is obvious stuff- and I have zero doubt that Trump’s own political team is quietly furious at him for being unable to control himself and think before he tweets.
At least we’ve got that going for us: republicans have the simple majority with 53 republican senators-and a slightly better 2026 map than the democrats do.
We should be able to hold onto our senate majority. But- in a bad year-you never know.
I think either of them would be strong candidates-but- they are also famously Maga. They are going to run by hugging trump...which might be okay...given how successful this second term has been so far.
November 2026 is a long way away. And if Tillis was in the ‘sweet spot’ with independent and swing voters- neither Whatley nor Lara Trump, will be they will be firmly viewed-and smeared-as ‘Maga’.
Lara trump also isn’t living in that state right now, and has smaller children, and so-Michael Whately is seen as the more likely of the two to get in.
But in a purple state-smearing republicans as ‘Maga’ works for democrats. As we’ve seen here in Wisconsin.
The best we can hope for is a messy primary for the democrats, too. There’s no ‘single’ candidate who’s running on their side. Remember- Tillis was the incumbent, and so now this is an ‘open seat’. Both sides are likely to have messy primaries before a bitter and expensive general election next fall.
photo credit: Getty Images
audio version of the segment here > President Trump could use some more impulse control