She failed to prove herself to Blue Dog Democrats.

Jay Weber Show transcript 11-1-24

As we head into the final days of early voting-and into the final weekend of the campaign- there is no doubt that this is true: Donald Trump is in the strongest position that he has been in over the course of his three presidential campaigns.

But that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s going to win. The polls are too close and the early voting numbers are ‘encouraging’ but still too vague.

Rich Lowry is the one outlining how Trump has never been in a better position- even though he’s managed to win one out of the two previous races.

Lowry says:

With six days to go, Donald Trump has never been in a better position in a general election.

That doesn’t mean he’s inevitably going to win (it’s a margin-of-error race), or that it was a good idea for Republicans to nominate him; presumably, another candidate without his baggage and taste for needless controversy would be doing better.

But after two impeachments, a reelection defeat, the disgrace of January 6, multiple indictments, a felony conviction, and much else besides, Trump has gained strength rather than shed it.

He has never performed this well in major polls against a Democratic nominee.

That is a very good analysis from Rich Lowry- capturing the moment. It’s reassuring to me to see where Trump is, in general.

But it’s also alarming to me that -despite every other bit of evidence that should point to a big trump win- the polls are still tied, and the democrat’s enthusiasm is peaking at the right time.

Yesterday i ran a clip from CNN’s Harry Enten. He was talking about how incumbent presidents and their parties -do not win- a second consecutive term when only 25 to 28 percent of the country say it’s on the right track. And that’s the situation now....and so.... he said...if Kamala Harris ends up losing big....the reason would have been right in front of us the whole time:

I agree with this take: kamala Harris should not be in the position to win this. And yet- it’s still too close to call.

Yesterday, some nervous GOP insiders were worried about an ‘early gender gap’ that has opened in the early voting: women are voting early at a 55/45 margin as compared to men-

And so-if this keeps up- it’s not going to matter if Black and more Hispanic and young men support trump this time around- because it will mean many of them never voted Kamala could still win this on the backs of women- especially suburban and college-indoctrinated women- if men don’t go out and vote, after all this talk about how they have ‘shifted’ to trump.

My god, men-vote!

A politico analysis identified this gender gap in the early voting-and followed up with:

Across battlegrounds, there is a 10-point gender gap in early voting so far: Women account for roughly 55 percent of the early vote, while men are around 45 percent, according to a POLITICO analysis of early vote data in several key states. The implications for next week’s election results are unclear; among registered Republicans, women are voting early more than men, too. But the high female turnout is encouraging to Democratic strategists, who expected that a surge in Republican turnout would result in more gender parity among early voters.

And this has the Harris campaign claiming they are confident Kamala is going to win a very close race.

This would be remarkable-given how -for months- pollsters and insiders have been talking about how Kamala Harris is doing worse than Joe Biden or Hillary Clinton with virtually every important democrat demographic.

She’s lost ground with blacks, Hispanics, Arabs, Jews, union members, young men, Catholics, older white voters …. And the polls are tied?

Or .’the polls are wrong’?

No one can be sure.

And so- it still scares me to learn that women are leading the early voting by ten points.

I’ve told you that my biggest worry here is that the democrat machine will have such a superior turnout and ‘cheating’ operation that -even though 70 percent of the country says we are on the wrong track and want change-Kamala Harris and the democrats will win, anyway.

So, Jay, is there any-actual? - evidence of a silent sliver of voters moving either toward or away from Kamala Harris in the final days here?

Yeah. There actually is.

It’s actually ‘older white voters’ who democrats assumed they had in the bag.... who have started to become disillusioned with kamala and have started to peel away from her-late.

The theory is one that I’ve suggested might be in play: once the mindless coronation and ‘Kammy boosting’ ended after labor day....Kamala had to actually prove to the people that she is up to this job: she is someone who most of us can see -sitting-in that very powerful chair.

And clearly-she hasn’t proven that. 

And so, as everyone has been hyper-focused on the Black vote and the Hispanic vote and the Arab vote...etc... No one has been noticing that …oh...over the last three weeks or so...Kamala Harris has dropped by about 8 points among older white voters.

Huh.

This is according to the final Emerson college poll...which also claims she’s dropped by about ten points with white voters, overall.

This is still the largest voting bloc in America, and so, it should ‘mean something’ that...back in august- ‘mid-coronation’...

So-if this ten-point shift toward Trump among white voters....and 8-point shift among older white voters- is real...it could represent that ‘silent shift’ I’ve been talking about.

Let’s go back to the 55 percent of women who have voted early, compared to the 45 percent of men. We don’t really know who they voted for.

If more women in that pool-which is probably very heavily older white women- right?

If more women in that pool are voting trump than the so-called ‘smart people’ expected....it would mean trump is still headed for victory.

Folks-if there has been some ‘older white flight’ from the democrats in 2024- due to the historically awful job that Joe Biden and the democrats have done running the country over the last four years-

Well then -there’s your ‘silent majority’ of voters that won’t show up until we count the ballots. Correct?

And this shift is easily explained, if it’s real: many older white voters who are democrats, independents, and Trump hater....and don’t like the way Biden ruined the country....at least wanted to give Kamala a chance to impress them when she got into the race.  They went back to her-and their preferred party- once Biden was swapped out.

Okay-Kamala- impress us.

But she hasn’t. And so...they waited thru September...waited thru early October. Nope. Still no substance coming from kamala. She’s still a fraud giving us word salads. Okay- lets shift back to Trump.

That’s the narrative I see here. This might be the biggest story of the ‘late campaign’- that no one’s talking about, my friends.

Let’s hope so.

photo credit: Getty Images

story credit: National Review and Politico

audio version of the segment here > She failed to prove herself to Blue Dog Democrats.