Jay Weber Show transcript 10-24-24
I started the show by talking about how the democrats have decided that their closing argument is going to be the ole’ ‘Trump is a closet Hitler’ ploy.
And they are doing so because they don’t have anything else.
Everything else has fallen flat. The democrat have engaged in the greatest and most fraudulent effort that I have ever seen out of a major party- to gaslight the American people into believing that the last four years-wasn’t-the complete disaster that it was.
And that attempt failed.
That’s’ the bottom line, here.
So, over the last week, the ‘fascist’ meme is all over the place and it’s been widely reported that this is their closing strategy.
The hill, politico, and a few other insider publications indicate that they ‘arrived’ at this place...after seeing the Harris/Walz campaign quietly crumble in the blue wall states over the last two weeks.
Sound familiar?
I have been revealing this fact to you for four weeks. Not two weeks: this slow, glacial, -yet significant- slide back towards Trump in the seven important swing states.
Democrats are starting to pull money from senate races. A good example is down in Texas
That senate candidate is the person who is challenging Ted Cruz, if you don’t recognize the name.
This is a race that Chuck Schumer and senate democrats were hoping that they might flip-in a good year- and as was the case When Ted Cruz took on that dippy ‘Beto O’Rourke’- it initially looked like a close race.
I haven’t seen the ‘very latest’ polling, but the last I saw- Cruz was up about five points and -almost certainly- ‘walks away’ with the race. Especially after a debate last week in which Cruz absolutely dismantled. Just. Dismantled. Colin Allred.
Another strong indicator that Schumer and the dems don’t think Allred can win this race: senate democrats and their PAC haven’t put any last-minute money into this race. At least not as-of last week.
So- when the entire presidential win rests on the upper Midwest- why? - is kamala wasting one of her final days in Texas?
She’s not trump. She doesn’t have the ability to sway races down ballot. And most critically: she doesn’t have the ‘stump time’ to waste on trying to get other ‘individual’ democrats across the finish line.
Folks-the best way that Kamala Harris can help Allred and every other democrat like him on the ballot-is darn it! – win her race!
If lower propensity voters turn out to vote in the big popularity contest and push Kammy to victory- Alfred, and all these other democrats ride to victory on her coattails.
So-why is she in Texas?
And this happens as pollsters on both sides of the aisle start to believe that Trump’s going to win this: or at least that he’s in the strongest position.
The superior democrat ground operation could literally generate an additional percentage or two for the democrats-and so- turnout is the absolute key to this.
I will admit to you that- over the years- I have come to ‘not really trust’ some of the people and so-called experts who appear on seen Hannity’s show. I feel like Hannity’s more interested in blowing wind up your skirt rather than passing along the truth...
So... let’s move to pollster Matt Towery. His take is: at this point- it looks like Trump will win North Carolina, Georgia, and Michigan-and if he does- that’s the ballgame.
Towery points to Pennsylvania and Nevada as the states that he just can’t get a handle on. Are just too close to call.
I find that interesting, given that something like the last 8 polls out of Pennsylvania have trump leading-and the most recent polls have him leading by two or three.
Also, people on the ground in Pennsylvania, just anecdotally, say the vibe and the momentum seems to be ‘all Trump’.
So- I would have predicted trump wins Pennsylvania and maybe Michigan. The point is- if everything else falls the way it’s expected to in the solid red states- trump would only need to win one of these three blue wall states to clinch the win.
So, it’s good to know that, legitimately now, Michigan and Pennsylvania look like they are in play-and even leaning toward trump.... because Wisconsin here-is a genuine toss-up. No one who’s been genuinely trying to figure this out would say that -yes- Trump’s going to win Wisconsin right now.
It's close. It’s trending the right way for both Hovde and trump...but...it’s a dead heat.
And these questions over WI, MI, and Penn are what’s going to have us ‘living and dying’ by every poll and prediction over the next week and a half, here.
As Michael Goodwin of the NY Post puts it: the margins are small, but the trend is clear, in these states. He is correct.
Goodwin is also finding some joy in the fact that the ‘joy has left’ the Kamala Harris campaign-
And he’s hoping for a Trump landslide....as nearly all of us are.... listening to this station.
It might sound foolish to even be talking about ‘landslides’ when this race remains so close-and when a superior democrat turnout operation-really could- lead to a kamala Harris win if the current polling is correct.
That’s my biggest fear: that the polls really are this close, and trump and our side totally blow this ‘turnout effort’ when compared to the democrats...
But- I am also of the opinion that the pollsters still haven’t really fixed their models from 2016 and 2020.
Some have tweaked them. Some are certain they’ve got things right now...but...I’m still not buying it.
My gut tells me this is going to be definitive on November sixth-and in Trump’s favor.
It’s just a hunch. I could end up looking like an ass afterward. But...I just can’t believe that these pollsters are ‘getting it right’ this time...and that their models still aren’t off by at least a few percentage points....and still aren’t picking up at least a two-point margin for trump that they aren’t giving him.
With trump slightly leading in the swing states- this doesn’t need to be a ‘six-point mistake’ by the pollsters...as it was in 2016...for trump to win.
It doesn’t need to be an 8-point mistake ...as it was in 2020.for Trump to win.
It only needs to be a 2-point mistake...and trump has a solid win....and even a landslide.
And the Democrats know this-which adds to their growing panic over the last two weeks.
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