Jay Weber Show transcript 10-23-24
I will remind you that Mark Halperin is the long-time DC journalist who has simply been in Washington DC long enough...and at powerful media companies enough, that he is considered a ‘venerable’ old-school reporter and a man with great sources.
He is not a fan of Donald Trump. He is not a fan of republicans. He hopes trump loses. But he’s also got enough credibility to tell the truth on his podcasts and when he’s interviewed...
And so.... the east coast insiders ‘took note’ when Mark Halperin said a few weeks ago: this race is trending Donald trump’s way...and the democrat operatives in the blue wall states are starting to panic.... etc.
It's what I’d been telling you for some time-but Halperin has more sway with ‘the important people’. They aren’t going to believe a thing i say...or even that Hannity or Levin might say...as national talkers...because we are dirty, evil conservatives...
But when the venerable Mark Halperin validates that kamala’s in trouble...and their senate majority is in trouble...etc. They’ll believe him.
Well-
Another clip from Mark Halperin’s podcast has gone viral...because he said yesterday...if the early vote totals that we are seeing out of republicans continue to run this strong- geez- we are going to know Trump won this before election day:
I’ll emphasize two things: it is a huge ‘if’. Early GOP voting might have started out hot this year because-Trump and republicans are really encouraging people on the right to do it for the first time-and so this might be just an initial wave who are following their wishes before these early ballot submissions really drop off in a few days-and go flat- as the rest of the GOP’s voters choose to wait until election day.
It could also be because a few of these states are hurricane damaged- with a bunch of trump voters who have been misplaced-and so they are trying to vote early-absentee.
And so- Halperin is right to say- only if the early ballot returns keep trending at this higher pace- could trump be all-but a shoo-in by election day morning- when the rest vote...
And what has him so rattled- are the early returns and the GOP’s stronger-than-expected response to the call to ‘vote early’.
For the record: if I had to guess- I would say that this is a pent up -early flood-of republicans who decided to vote early this year simply because trump or the party wants them to.
I do think this will die down a little-and democrats will start to gain more pronounced advantages in the early voting around the country. It’s simply what is most likely to happen...
And so-I’m skeptical on the notion that early GOP voting will keep running at this pace. I don’t want to be a wet blanket, but that’s my honest take.
I sure hope it does.
I voted yesterday and felt great doing it. The ballot is in. Trump got my vote. Hovde got my vote. Fitz- Scott Fitzgerald got my vote- he’s my congressman. I voted ‘yes’ on the ballot question that amends the state constitution so illegals cannot ever vote here.
I’m already done. And that’s a reassuring feeling. So- I’d encourage people to continue to find a time over the next two weeks to vote early.
And it’s great to know that the early response to this effort is sending little chills of fright down the democrat’s backs.
So far-
Republicans feel good about North Carolina and Georgia busting records for turnout on the first day of early voting-
But those are two states hit by hurricane and tornado damage that has greatly disrupted a lot of the rural areas trump needs to win them. So, we still don’t know what it means.
We can’t automatically assume that trump and the GOP are in a great position. These signs are just ‘encouraging’. Early positives. For a group of hungry pundits and analysists on the right who really, really want Trump to win....and who are therefore....likely to view every little thing as evidence of ‘winning’.
I’m preaching caution. Don’t read too much into it. Focus on getting yourself out to vote-and taking as many like-minded friends and relatives as you can with you.
If grandma’s a democrat -leave her home. Duck out during wheel of fortune. She’ll never know you’re gone....
I kid. She might want to vote for Jill Stein...
But- it is! -encouraging that so many people in the swing states have already voted early-and are keeping these vote totals closer- giving the GOP a better chance to close the late gap on election day.
Yep. And the figures are enough to rattle someone like Halperin, who has his own insider experts and party observers on the ground in these states-whispering in his ear.
You can tell that he-at least- believes that if we go into election day with trump and the GOP sitting with at least 30 or 35 percent of the overall number of ballots turned in-
It means trump will close the gap and win it on election day, proper.
Again- that’s a theory. This is almost certainly only ‘high propensity’ voters who would have voted for trump, anyway. In addition to them- we on the GOP side need to also see a bunch of lower propensity voters go to the polls or vote early in these critical swing states. They are the voters who will most likely decide the election.
This flood of new absentee ballots-also means-that we are not likely to know who won the presidency or some of these senate races until days later.
Unfortunately- if it’s a close race- some of these big cities and states will still be counting absentee and military ballots-and that’s where the potential for cheating-and for worried about ‘stolen elections’ really start to creep in: after we’ve all voted and....darn it.... our election officials cannot tell us who won in their area...or in their state...until days later.
It will be infuriating-
And right now-that is-the expectation for this fall race-
And no, it didn’t used to be this way.
It’s the democrat’s idiotic push for an ‘election season’ rather than ‘election day’ that really has caused this. Absentee ballots are a pain to open, record, and process.... clerks’ offices are understaffed...and novice helpers are often doing it on election day.
There is no reason that all states cannot have the election results for us by the next morning-if not on election night.
There is-no reason-that we, the people, should not know who won our elections quickly -and with an accurate count.
Here in Wisconsin- some republicans and Trump supporters’ rail against the city of Milwaukee’s late-night ballot dumps that suddenly show the democrat-leaping ahead.
Well-the way to stop that-is to allow them to start processing the absentee ballots the day before...and have it done around the time the polls close.
If you don’t want to allow that- don’t whine about the 3am ballot dumps that look fishy and rigged.
And as for the opportunity to cheat I’d argue there is far less opportunity to cheat in the middle of the day on Monday-with election observers watching the early processing.... than after midnight on election night when everyone has gone home. So-pick your poison.
I’ll often say democrats can’t have it both ways.
Well-republicans can’t either on this one: either you allow for early organization and ballot processing starting the day before election day-or you get the 2 or 3 am ballot dumps that infuriate you so much. It’s one or the other.
Take your pick.
photo credit: Getty Images
audio version of the segment here > The huge early vote turnout has DC insiders and left rattled.