Jay Weber Show transcript 10-1-24 8:10am
My friends- every election, the Hispanic vote in America becomes a larger and larger chunk of the electorate. It’s safe to say that it’s a more important chunk of the vote than the African American vote, given that it’s larger-and growing faster.
Black voters make up about 13 to 14 percent of the overall electorate-and their numbers aren’t creeping up nearly as fast as Hispanic voters.
The Hispanic vote is about 15 to 16 percent of the
US vote now. A huge number of them are in only five states-too. About 65 percent of all Hispanic voters live in California, Texas, Florida, New York, and Arizona.
There are about 36-million Hispanic Americans eligible to vote this year- up from 32 million just four years ago...and up until a few years ago.... they heavily voted democrat.
In fact, democrats have won the Hispanic vote in every presidential election since 1972....and except for one of the George W Bush years- won the Latino vote by at least 35 points.
So, this has been a massive gap- when it comes to the Hispanic vote.
That started to change during the trump administration, as it did with a new sliver of Black voters, because they found new successes and larger paychecks in the trump era.
Moreover-Hispanics are largely ‘working class’ and ‘socially conservative’, and those things match up – far better-with todays’ republican party than today’s democrat party. Correct?
And so, in 2020, when joe Biden allegedly won by about 100-thousand votes in a few key states- Biden only won the Hispanic vote by 23 points.
That sounds like a lot-but remember-the historical norm since the Nixon era-has been to have the GOP lose that demographic by 35 points or more.
Trump cut that margin to a 23-point gap in 2020. It’s one reason that Florida went from a proverbial swing state-to a solidly red state-over the last few elections.
The shifting Latino vote has also boosted trump and the GOP in Arizona and Nevada. In fact, even in 2022, when the republicans had a rather pathetic and disappointing result in what was supposed to be a ‘red tsunami’ year...republicans held fast to that larger share of the Latino vote.
So-fast forward to today- and nearly every poll and measure shows trump and the GOP doing-even better- with Hispanics than they did in 2020 and 22.
The cook political report only has Kamala Harris leading trump by about 12 percentage points in the Hispanic demographic-
Well, hell, that’s about a third of what it was, pre-trump. And-according to analysts- it’s significand that Donald Trump’s level of support with Hispanics has not dropped since kamala Harris entered the race.
We’ve seen him lose a few percentage points of the black vote...since Kammy kicked joe down the steps.... but Trump’s support among Latino voters has held fast...at about 40 or 42 percent.
Listen to NBC’s data-cruncher, Steve Kornacki, as he walks thru their latest survey data-released Sunday. He says- that gap between Harris and Trump is down to about 14 points now- and that’s about twenty points better-
Twenty points better- than where Trump was four years ago.
Bottom line: young, working-class Hispanic voters have shifted dramatically to the GOP over the last several election cycles. Good. Let’s hope we can keep them under the tent-long term.
They moved-primarily-because of the economy that trump was able to create during his time in office. Better jobs. Higher wages. Especially for those with only high school diplomas, etc.
So-Trump wins them over on the economy-
And- and- on immigration and the border.
These finding shocks and surprises the network pollsters and the NY and DC insiders- but it doesn’t shock me.
It shocks them because -they assume-Hispanic voters want open borders and are fine with giving the country away to illegals-because they share an ethnic DNA with them...
And....they also assume that every ‘Hispanic voter’ is a new arrival to America. Democrats assume this-because they are the real racists in America.
They do not see Hispanic voters as ‘American voters’ who happen to be of Hispanic heritage.
And that! Is the way you need to look at the so-called Hispanic vote: these are primarily long-time Americans with Hispanic last names. Most of them and their families have been here for generations, just as those of us with more Anglo and European names have.
I have explaining this-for years: how it is the white democrat’s own racism that has them looking at the ‘Hispanic vote’ as -a) a monolithic vote that they assume should vote all the same....and b) as people who recently came to America on an avocado boat.
Good lord. Most of them are multi-generational Americans like you and me.
I like to use the example of an acquaintance of mine who had to tell his teenaged son that -he- the son-was Hispanic.
I forget in what context it came up, but they were somewhere, and the kid said: there are a lot of Hispanics here, aren’t there?
And dad said: son-you-are Hispanic. Garcia? Hispanic?
Oh, yeah.
It’s a great example of how quickly the ‘nation of origin’ or the ‘ethnicity’ of the average American would become an afterthought- if we adults- just let it become an afterthought- instead of having the democrat party and the left wing activist groups hyper-focus on it. Separate us all by race and ethnicity. Pit us against each other.
But- when it comes to -quote- Hispanic voters, both parties have taken the wrong approaches to luring them -as voters- because both sides have had a mistaken sense of ‘who Hispanic voters’ are.
And honest to god- one thing that has helped Trump win over more of them is- frankly- he doesn’t care who the heck you are-or what color your skin is- and it’s not going to affect how he interacts with you- or cause him to pander to you.
Honestly.
Trump has proven that repeatedly. I can give you numerous examples related to both black and Hispanic voters-
But since we are talking about the Hispanic vote- one significant reason that trump is doing far better with Hispanic Americans than Mitt or McCain did- is because-instead of pandering to some false version of ‘what Hispanic Americans want’- Trump has simply said: we need to secure the border and have immigrants come in the right way.
Trump knew it was the right stand to take. He knew 75 to 80 percent of the American people agreed with it. And he knew-in truth? - race had nothing to do with it.
Open borders are a terrible idea. They have harmed this country. And they must stop. That’s the simple truth. Trump states it.
When he does-the racists on the left leap to make it a racial thing: trump is terrified to have more black and brown people in this country.
No. He’s not. That’s ‘your’ hang-up, not his.
Which is why it makes sense that Donald Trump’s tough stance on the border-endeared him-to more Hispanic voters rather than turned them off.
Because-I’ll say it again- they are Americans with Hispanic last names! Most of them are Americans first. Been here for generations. Just like German Americans or Irish Americans.
And yes, there’s a larger chunk of Latino migrants and transplants-but those who are voters- are voters because they came in the right way! And in my experience, there is no better group of people to talk about the greatness of America and the need to preserve and protect it from a flood of third world lawlessness. After all- they’ve just ‘lived in it’.
Byron York is the only other pundit who I’ve seen ‘understand this’....
And he had a post yesterday that was dead on, based on NBC’s new polling:
He goes on to say that- if Kamala Harris is going to win this election-she needs high levels of support from minority voters, and right now? 34 days out? She’s not getting it.
And it’s not hard to see why: on top of the economy and inflation and open border issues- it’s the urban Hispanic communities that have been hardest hit by Biden’s massive influx of illegals.
Many these illegals are being ‘settled’ in Latino neighborhoods-and/or- naturally migrating to them. It’s where the people and the language are more familiar-and sadly-where some of the most notorious Latin gangs are already operating.
I don’t care if you’re Black, Hispanic, Asian, Martian- who would want four more years -of this?
If anything- even more Hispanic voters should be supporting Trump.
photo credit: Getty Images
audio version of the segment here > Trump continues to gain the minority vote