Jay Weber Show transcript 8-14-24 7:10am
Apparently, CNN viewers believe that Kamala Harris already has this election ‘won’, because their pollster over there was trying to tamp down ‘irrational exuberance’ yesterday.
And I’ll give credit to Harry Enten-their data-cruncher-
He’s been honest and fair in his analysis and ‘take aways’ as he’s been on camera, on and off, this summer.
Yesterday, he was telling Harris supporters who are wanting to pop the champaign corks because they are ahead in most new polls-to slow down -and understand that -if trump’s level of support is being ‘under-sampled’ and ‘under-polled’ again this year, he could be up by as many as five or six points, and we wouldn’t know it.
Listen to harry enter yesterday, point out that-the polls in 2016 under-represented Donald Trump’s level of support by nine points. Nine.
And in 2020- the polls were off by five.
So-the first point Enten made to CNN viewers is trump could be ahead if we have yet another year of wonky liberal polling going on.
The second point he made is: point out that Trump is more popular now than he was in 2016 or 2020. Which is true.
And a third point he made is: surprisingly- democrats still aren’t saying that they are ‘more likely’ to vote in fall because Kamala Harris is on the ticket instead of Joe Biden.
And this-is-a surprising thing. I don’t really believe it.
Just, logically, you would assume that more democrat voters who were disgruntled over Biden’s prospects in fall would be more encouraged with someone different on the ticket. After all-something like 85 percent of democrats say they are glad Biden is off the ticket.
But-according to Enten’s polling data- 62 percent of democrats said they were certain they were going to get out and vote for Biden...and now...61 percent...that same percentage.... say they are certain they’ll get out to vote for Kamala.
And so-
Somehow-despite the month of MSM cheerleading and the effort to make this a ‘joyful’ and ‘historic’ democrat ticket- more voters aren’t feeling ‘moved’ to participate on the democrat side of the aisle yet.
Huh.
And if that’s the case- it’s probably because -as I keep saying: the basics of the race have not changed. The dems still ran the country into the ground for four years. Americans are still hurting from Biden’s inflation. They were just reminded, again, of how they lost a big chunk of their investment savings under Biden- and still haven’t clawed their way back....
Etc.
A theme of the show, today, is how the democrat’s attempt to substitute substance for ‘vibes’....
How Kammy’s ‘joyful campaign’...can’t erase the last four years of misery and hardship...and can’t wallpaper over the fact that it was the democrats who were in charge-who caused it. Caused. It.
Folks-not a single thing about the last four years-had to be ‘as it was’. Certainly, the American economy ‘didn’t have to be this way’...and wouldn’t have been this awful...if Donald trump had won a second term. And don’t tell me that most voters ‘don’t know that’.
They do.
And so- the dems could be making a big mistake here by trying to sell ‘joy’ and the claim that ‘Kamala Harris has the answers’... When so many people in this country- so starkly- know better.
Listen to a black voter in Philadelphia...who was part of a CNN ‘decision 24’ panel. Tell me that -this woman- isn’t going to be insulted by claims that ‘we should be joyful. Kamala Harris and Tim Walz are here to save us.
The way we experience ‘joy’ or ‘optimism’ again, my friends, is by voting this group of democrats who control the country-out of office for good-in fall.
That’s what brings ‘joy’ back.
That black voter you heard from-is in Pennsylvania...and she was taking to CNN.
CNN is-not-a conservative leaning network.
I have a story here-also out of Pennsylvania- from the Washington Post.
This is also not a conservative news outlet. I point that out to show you that- even the liberal news outlets who are sending reporters to the swing states- aren’t really writing stories about finding ‘joy’ and ‘hope’ expressed because kamala is now atop the ticket.
The wash post article deals with voters out in ‘fracking country’...
And even the post analysis admits Kamala Harris’ long-stated support for banning fracking and ending all fossil fuels- is the talk of rural Pennsylvania, now.
The lefty post then goes on to insist that fracking-is- a terrible climate problem that needs to be addressed- but concludes by saying- these voters in Pennsylvania could be the ones who cost democrats the election.
Remember-the strategists who are fretting over the electoral maps see -three- pathways to a kamala Harris victory- but every single one of them involves Harris winning Pennsylvania.
It’s a very safe bet that-if Harris and the dems cannot win Pennsylvania in fall-they cannot win the white house.
And that means that both campaigns are already hyper-focused on winning it, yes.
It also means that trump and the RNC should be engaged in early efforts to root out any cheating and ballot stuffing that’s likely to go on.... given how...when democrats are cornered...they cheat-
And now consider how many months these democrats must plan for cheating schemes in Pennsylvania.
Electoral cheating has-always-gone on in Philly.
I routinely mention the wards back in 2008 and 2012 saw Obama winning 110 and 115 percent of the vote. It’s incredible how more people voted for Obama in Philly than lived there.
Well-expect more of the same this year-which means the GOP is going to need to be hyper-vigilant in rooting out the cheating-and- it means trump and the RNC are going to have to ‘win big’. Win by several percentage points so any cheating that the dems-can-engage in won’t flip the result.
photo credit: Getty Images
audio version of the segment here> Are you feeling joyful