Jay Weber Show transcript 8-8-24 6:10am
I don’t have any ‘grand’ or ‘insightful’ takes on the latest Marquette poll-aside from- I honestly thought it would show Kamala Harris in the lead by a few points.
And so- that’d be my biggest take away: it’s surprising to see Donald Trump maintaining even a ‘one point’ lead in this poll-given how much of a blue state Wisconsin ‘really is’ when it comes to presidential races-
And given the incredible flood of great coverage and MSM protection-and elevation- the Kamala Harris campaign has received over the last seventeen days.
Folks- this wasn’t a big lead for Donald Trump before Biden dropped out. At most, Trump’s lead over Biden was only two or three points in any given poll.
And so...to see the coronation of Kamala Harris create virtually -no-shift in this state?
That’d be a significant finding to me.
But-remembering that the margin of error in these polls is almost five percent-this is a dead heat. As you’d expect.
If you haven’t seen the numbers- Charles Franklin’s pollsters at mu have trump at 50 percent and kamala at 49- with the wider poll of ‘registered voters...and with those results flipped among likely voters.
These are -not-great results for democrats. Franklin also found that Donald Trump still leads on the enthusiasm gap-but by not as much.
That’s more evidence, again, that Donald Trump could have made a better choice for Veep. His team allegedly chose JD Vance thinking he’d have more appeal than a Tim Scott or a Kim Reynolds in Wisconsin. According to these numbers- he doesn’t.
Meanwhile-the luckiest and most relieved democrat in the state is Tammy Baldwin, because having Kamala Harris on the ticket instead of Joe Biden instantly increases her chances of keeping her seat-and that race with Eric Hovde remains largely unchanged: Baldwin’s leading 52-47.
That five-point lead-is- a bit of a boost for Baldwin from the last mu poll.
Meanwhile- the two sides are starting to argue over ‘who’ has the better ground game in these swing states like Wisconsin.
The Harris campaign has been engaged in all sorts of cheerleading and self- promotion-insisting they’ve got the best ground game ever- going here in Wisconsin and elsewhere...
And in response- I got to admit-
The republican response is less than convincing. Trump’s team says ‘that’s bologna. They’re just trying to pump up their voters’... But then they don’t offer any real ‘evidence’ of a great ground game occurring on behalf of Donald trump and the republicans, here.
Let’s hope that the edge in enthusiasm and the larger mood for ‘change’ will be enough to put Trump and Hovde and the republicans over the top.
But I’m not- super-confident- in our ground game here. It’s going to have to be other advantages that have trump and the GOP winning at least one of the three blue wall states- to get the victory.
Thank heaven that-so far, Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral college votes, still looks like a good bet.
Not only is president trump still leading slightly after over two weeks of Kammy cheerleading...but there have been some structural changes-and structural reasons- to be optimistic about republicans winning Pennsylvania.
We talked about the GOP advantage in voter registrations. Republicans have had something like 34-thousand voters register as republicans over the last two years- a few thousand more registered as independents...and meanwhile.... Pennsylvania democrats lost about 23-hundred registrants.
The Harris/Walz ticket will also be fighting against a slow erosion of their voters in Philadelphia. It’d be safe to say that-any win-
Any-win-for Kamala Harris is going to rely heavily on black voter turnout in Philly.
But- over the last two elections, fewer and fewer voters have been turning up in those wards.
Folks- if Kamala Harris doesn’t win Pennsylvania on election night- she cannot win the election. At least not according to any plausible scenario or ‘model map’ that any of the experts have.
And its’ a reason that Trump and Vance should double down on their efforts to win there.
There’s also the question of whether Kamala Harris closes any ‘enthusiasm gap’ there, as she does here in Wisconsin, according to yesterday’s MU poll.
She might boost enthusiasm among black voters in Philly and Pittsburgh- but in the suburbs and rural areas, she ain’t ‘Scranton Joe’ and she has no history or connections with the state.
In fact, when she stops there, she had to pretend that she is-not- a California socialist progressive- and is instead a moderate who doesn’t see them all as backward hicks and racists.
You can expect Kammy and Tim Walz to spend gobs of time in Pennsylvania over the next two months...because they cannot win without it.
This is one reason that Harris’ decision-not-to select the Pennsylvania governor, Josh Shapiro, as her running made was so frustrating to so many democrats and strategists Tuesday.
Folks- CNN and Axios- both had analysis pieces yesterday ‘essentially explaining’ why Harris blew her Veep pick.
CNN’s chief political analyst, Harry enter, said that his sources say the Harris campaign chose Tim Walz because he was basically the only choice that didn’t anger one faction of the dem tent or another...
I would immediately challenge that notion, given the last 24 to 36 hours of coverage and conversation that has occurred online and on social media since Harris named this pick.
I understand that the MSM accomplices immediately launched into an effort to gaslight the voters and do their best to promote Walz as a great pick and a great moderate midwestern governor-
But he’s not- and the tsunami of baggage that he’s been carrying around for years hit social media all at once.
This ‘stolen valor’ scandal, alone, became an all-consuming topic on x yesterday, and threatens to grow into something that ‘sticks’ to Walz longer term. Add that to the fact that he’s a ‘defund the police’ governor who sat back and watched Minneapolis burn during the BLM riots-then championed the rioters instead of calling for law and order.
Not good. Not good.
And so- if Enten is right and the Harris campaign chose Walz because he was the VP pick quote ‘without risk’.... They are already mistaken.
photo credit: Fox News 6 Milwaukee
story credit: Marquette Poll
audio version of the segment here > The Marquette poll wasn't the splash Kammy expected