Jay Weber Show transcript 7-29-24 7:10am
As I was predicting last week: the presidential polls have tightened again. It ‘could only’ be expected, given how divided this country is -and how terrible Joe Biden’s chances were.
It’s both his policies-and his dementia-that were weighting the democrats down in the polls-in an otherwise divided country.
And now-Kamala Harris is at least a fresh face. She’s going to appeal to some sliver of women-and black voters-who were disillusioned with Biden, and so, of course they are helping provide the bump.
As are, i am sure, some sliver of young people and so called ‘double haters’...who didn’t like either Trump or Biden-
And-an interesting thing I’m seeing in some polls: a bunch of democrats who were supporting RFK junior-suddenly sliding over to Kammy.
This is the only thing I’d call a little unexpected or surprising.
Some of the new polls now suggest that Donald Trump is going to be harmed more by Kennedy being in the race in the swing states-
When he used to be taking two voters away from Biden for every voter he took away from trump.
Well- a couple of the new polls I’ve seen suggest Kennedy is in ‘free fall’ now, because so many disillusioned democrat voters seem to be more excited about kamala.
And so, we’ll have to watch that trend...because it would be the most concerning to me: if RFK junior now becomes a drag-only- or mostly-on the GOP side.
But- this has gone as i predicted last week Thursday and Friday- as i walked you thru ‘what was going to happen.
I said if Harris-didn’t-see a significant bump just for getting in the race- then the dems would really be screwed...because this should tighten up...based solely on the dems swapping out a god-awful candidate who had ‘no chance’ of winning...for a ‘different choice’ who’d at least have a chance.
So-no surprise- the national polls being taken show trump up by only one or two nationally. I think fox news has it tied- and has them tied in four of the six swing states-
And so-I’d remind you again ‘what a crap pollster’ Fox News has. I’ve been saying it for years. I know a lot of you like fox news but their pollsters never accurate.
I’d believe the ones that show this is now a race that is virtually tied-with trump having only the slightest advantages both nationally-and in the swing states, now.
The fact that Kamala Harris is black, might. Might, put Georgia and North Carolina closer to that ‘in play’ category. Trump was ‘walking away’ with both states when he was taking on Biden.
WI, MI, and Penn would have to be called ‘dead heats’ again-because of this swap out...and so...that’s the basic lay of the land after a week of relentless Kammy boosting by the MSM and the activist left.
This race has been totally reset- as you’d expect it to be. The significant advantage that Donald Trump had built over joe Biden has, unfortunately, evaporated...and we are right back to a nail-biting race.
And the reason is that- on the excitement of ‘someone other than Joe’ alone, Kamala Harris has started to reformulate more of that traditional democrat coalition. Some women are sliding back. Some African Americans. Some young people...etc.
Still- this doesn’t mean Harris is a ‘strong candidate’ longer term. I’d expect these poll numbers to remain about where they are-or even see Kammy take a bit of a lead nationally and in the blue wall swing states- over the next few weeks and coming out of the convention, yes.
And that will be solely because she’s got the entire, massive, democrat machine working on concert with the entire, massive legacy media machine behind her and working to promote her.
This is not going to be an easy win for Donald trump and JD Vance, folks.
And I’ve decided not to be too critical of Donald Trump and some of his choices this fall-because the stakes are so high-and because everyone else is doing it-
But- JD Vance may already be a drag on the ticket. I stated well ahead of time that he would be trump’s ‘worst choice’ for VP. He could have had a black, Hispanic, or woman on this ticket and expanded the appeal of it-
And by the way- all those other choices had been fully vetted with no skeletons in their closet.
Nope. Trump decided to go with someone who narrowed the appeal of the ticket instead of widening it. Dumb.
And here we are, with a black-female-incompetent candidate now topping the democrat ticket ...and a Tim Scott or a Kim Reynolds on the trump ticket would have been strategically smart.
But-I’ll just point it out and move on. We’ll see where this goes.
Trump has a few advantages this time around that he didn’t have in 2020 -including most Americans viewing his first term in a positive light now. He also has a personal favorability rating that is much closer to 50/50 after the assassination attempt.
In short-trump’s ‘favorable’ have never been this high with the American people, in general, and if he beat Hillary with lower ones-and nearly beat Biden- more favorable ratings should give him an advantage this time-as Kammy is made to wear all of the failures of the Biden administration-
As she should.
And so- here’s my ‘hope’.
My hope is that trump and republicans really get their act together and focus on forcing the Harris campaign to ‘own’ all of the failures of the Biden administration- while also forcing kamala to ‘own’ the fact that she’s a far left San Francisco leftist who borders on Marxist.
They need to make her own all the positions that she ran on in 2020, too, because they were to the left of Bernie sanders.
And so, so much of it is ‘on tape’.
My hope is that Trump can ‘get out of his own way’. Stop talking about himself- and start talking about the issues and kamala Harris’ disastrous record on them. I know it’s impossible-but- he and Vance need to bite their tongues when it comes to personal attacks on her...and instead...attack her record. Make her own that radical, insane, record of hers.
And as for the polls-my hope is- this is Kamala Harris’ ‘Dukakis moment’.
Some people in dc are already labeling this.
What they’re talking about is: in 1988, after two terms of Reagan and with George HW bush running...the democrats were super-excited about very liberal Michael Dukakis being nominated...and they had a raucous convention...and polls showed Dukakis up by seven points-
Seven points! - over George Bush as the dems came out of their convention. And then- bush and the republicans very successfully ‘told America ‘Who Michael Dukakis really was an out-of-touch liberal who was soft on crime, planned to raise taxes, had zero foreign policy experience...etc.
Once the American people learned what Dukakis believed-the polls flipped and bush ended up winning easily...by seven or eight points.
Folks, if republicans and trump can make kamala Harris ‘wear’ her voting record and the Biden regime’s failures- Donald Trump should have no problem winning this race.
It’s doable-but this time-they are up against a genuine leftist, propagandist, MSM machine. So, it’s going to be tougher than it was in ’88.
And I’ll say this: at least so far-Kamala Harris and her campaign are helping us out-
If she was running ‘toward the center’ right now- we’d be in more trouble, but so far, she’s doubling and tripling down on all the terrible policies that got this country into such a terrible jam. Kamala Harris’ instincts-so far-are to run even further to the left-
Even though she’s not running in a primary. The dems skipped all of that-and she’s going right to the ‘general election’.
Meanwhile- trump and republicans own large advantages on every single issue. That the American people care about.
The open border?
Kamala Harris was Biden’s border czar and either helped engineer it-or stood by and watched as Mayorkas did. Either way, she’s culpable-
And either way-it’s clear the dem party wants open borders.
On the economy? Harris not only owns the 40 year high-runaway inflation-but she’s already talking about reversing the Trump/Ryan tax cuts and raising nearly every single American’s taxes.
Greg- we have that cut.
The Trump/Ryan tax cuts gave 91 percent of Americans a significant tax break. For most of us-if they are canceled- our taxes will go up by one or two thousand dollars.
Harris still wants to pretend these were tax cuts for the rich:
That’s Kamala Harris promising to raise your taxes, again.
She doesn’t have any foreign policy experience, either, and was insulting Israel and saying dumb things that are only likely to expand the war- over the weekend.
Kamala Harris-is- Michael Dukakis for a new age- but worse.
photo credit: Getty Images
audio version of the segment here > How long will take for America find out how awful Kammy really is