Jay Weber Show transcript 7-16-24 7:10am
I love this story: after the dementia debate-the national polls have shown that Donald Trump is still only up over Biden by two or three points-
Which isn’t surprising-given how many voters are ‘dug in’ on each side-
And frankly given how ‘little’ the national polls matter. This is 50 individual state elections, and it all comes down to the battlegrounds.
However- one. One- poll released this week-by NBC news- showed Joe Biden up by three points, nationally.
My friends- democrats around the country hopped on this poll like a monkey on a cupcake- insisting it was evidence that Joe’s still viable. Joe’s making a comeback. The voters are showing they are behind him...etc.
Folks- NBC got it wrong.
Yesterday, NBC’s pollster made the admission that ‘we added wrong, Donald Trump is actually the one who’s up by three’.
Fantastic.
And just as the results of this great poll for Joe really started circulating around social media ‘hot and heavy’ among the desperate democrats- NBC had to put out the word: Sorry. It’s Trump who is up by three.
And yes, I’m taking pleasure in their misery:
That 40 percent for Trump seems weak-but the poll shows RFK junior getting ten percent of the vote. I still don’t really see that happening, come fall, but maybe.
Meanwhile- YouGov is the latest pollster to put numbers out for the swing states-and an important note is-this batch of polling was done before the assassination attempt on trump-
I’m going to assume that Saturday’s events will make Trump even more appealing to some voters-
But-
YouGov found that- post dementia debate. Post ‘comeback tour’ with the Stephanopoulos interview and the ‘big boy’ NATO news conference-
Joe Biden is still losing to Trump in every single swing state.
I must keep saying it: I do not believe the ‘Trump by five’ finding. Not in this poll and not in last week’s AARP poll. I am- very skeptical- that any race in Wisconsin would take that big a swing- ever.
And so-I’m not buying it. Don’t get comfortable.
Wisconsin will be tight-
The point is- the polling before the assassination attempt-in the swing states-was still promising for trump.
This survey has trump leading in Pennsylvania by three. This is the state he was just shot in...so you’d think sympathy for him would go up there-in this critical swing state-
And yesterday- we had a NY Times Sienna college poll come out that had been taken before Saturday’s attempt on trump’s life-
And it shows- Trump by three, also.
That is the sort of evidence that Nancy Pelosi and Barrack Obama are collecting-before they go to Joe Biden and insist that he drop out.
I know the effort has been ‘paused’ for now, but if trump gets an even bigger bump out of this assassination attempt- there is going to be extreme pressure on Pelosi, Obama, Schumer, Jefferies- to convince Jill and Joe Biden that he's just ‘got to go’.
As it is-you’ve got numerous dem strategists and insiders saying ‘this race is already over if Joe remains the candidate. He can’t win’.
I don’t believe that for a second-given how devious they are and how many so-called ballots harvesting and cheating schemes they’ve got working-including Zucker bucks again this year-in other states-
But- that is the ‘head space’ that most of these democrats are in, right now.
There’s a lefty columnist at the guardian who’s in a meltdown today-certain- that the assassination attempt has now taken away the entire Biden/Harris ‘argument’ for re-election.
The Democrat’s ‘project gaslight’ crumbled.
The left can’t claim Trump is the biggest threat to democracy when one of their Trump haters just tried to shoot him in the head.
And forget lying about January sixth, she says. We’ve been gaslighting on that for three years, but, forget it now.
Someone tried to shoot Trump in the head-and missed.
This is the tone of her article.
Then there’s the fact that- the umbrella over this entire 2024 campaign-is the fact that Joe Biden and the Dem’s policies have bleeped up the entire country and angered 70 percent of its people.
Folks-the NY Post editors today point out that New York state-is not- ‘in play’ because of Joe Biden’s age or debate collapse.
It’s not ‘in play’ because trump is surging.
New York state is ‘in play’ because of Biden’s terrible policies. They point to democrat antisemitism, the flood of migrants, and the dems refusal to deal with high crime.
That! Is why NY state is in play.
Then there are the young people.
A reporter for the free press- Olivia Reingold- spoke to all sorts of 18 to 30 year olds recently-and found out why a chunk of them who voted for Biden four years ago-or haven’t voted yet-as 18 year old-are going to vote for Trump instead of Biden this time around.
photo credit: Getty Images
audio version of the segment here > The Democrat’s ‘project gaslight’ crumbled.