Jay Weber Show transcript 11/29/23 8:10am
I opened the show by talking about how Nikki Haley got the endorsement of the Koch brothers’ network-Americans for prosperity-action...
And how-it’s a huge deal.
It might represent the dagger to Ron DeSantis’ floundering campaign.
Donald trump was never going to get this endorsement because the Koch brothers and their activist leaders never liked trump’s style. Never thought he was an honest or laudable candidate. And didn’t really work on his behalf in 2016 or 2020.
Moreover-they broke their long-standing policy earlier this year and said that-this time around-they were going to endorse a single ‘non-trump’ primary candidate to try to move the party past him.
This is what they are doing. And they chose Nikki Haley.
To me, endorsing DeSantis would have made more sense, given that AFP’s political actions and the sorts of reforms they advocate for fit better with DeSantis than Nikki Haley-
i mean-come on- they call themselves a libertarian-leaning, free market organization.
Does anything about Nikki Haley strike you as libertarian or free market?
She was just talking about big govt control of social media a week ago. You’d think that would have raised some red flags at AFP.
But hey- she’s been the one showing some upward growth in the polls- and DeSantis hasn’t.
I assume that’s why they went with her...and in doing so...suggested Ron DeSantis drop out
So, AFP’s leaders clearly don’t see Ron DeSantis’ prospects of being very good...and of the two leading non-trump contenders, they feel better about shoving DeSantis out.
They shouldn’t be-because polls have consistently shown that when DeSantis drops out- most of his voters move over to trump and the net effect is that Nikki Haley only falls even further behind Donald trump...
But...this is their choice...even if I think it’s wrongheaded.
It’s a move that only solidifies the notion in my head that Donald trump likely already has this sewn up.
Ron DeSantis’s only viable path forward is to win Iowa and then hope the shock and momentum from that win propels him to other surprising wins in New Hampshire and South Carolina-where he’s now lagging Nikki Haley-and in New Hampshire-even Chris Christie.
The only reason that I’d give DeSantis even a chance of winning Iowa is-
-a very popular governor in Kim Reynolds has endorsed him.
-a very popular and influential evangelical leader in Bob Vander Platts has endorsed him-and this guy’s track record of forcing his candidate to the top of the pile is remarkable.
-third reason: it’s a caucus and only the most committed of political junkies will turn out to participate-which throws off the numbers and means polls taken in the state don’t mean much.
And fourth-Donald trump has gone out of his way to insult and trash all these popular Iowa leaders while avoiding doing any-real-campaigning in the state.
Those are the reasons that Ron DeSantis could still shock the world and win Iowa on caucus night. Its’ because Iowa isn’t a primary...and Iowa isn’t ‘a normal’ popularity contest.
Listen to that very influential evangelical leader-Bob Vander Platts- on why he recently endorsed DeSantis.
That guy...simply...engineers...wins in Iowa for people like Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee...who then went on to quickly ‘crap out’ in New Hampshire and South Carolina...which is what I’d predict will happen to Ron DeSantis -even if he wins Iowa-
But there it is. Don’t assume trump wins Iowa, just because the statewide polls say he will. Those polls are-always wrong-on caucus night, it seems.
And to be clear: this isn’t me being Pollyannaish and trying to prop up ‘my boy’, DeSantis. I think he’s in real trouble and don’t see a path forward for him even if he does win Iowa, given how far behind he is in the next two states-New Hampshire and Iowa.
And nothing is going to change in terms of ‘pole position’ between now and January fifth, either.
Neither DeSantis nor Haley is going to drop out: DeSantis’ entire strategy is to ‘play for Iowa’. Its’ the first contest. He’s put all his energy into it and made over 130 campaign stops there.
Why would he drop out before seeing even -that? -result?
We know Haley won’t drop out because she’s running a stronger second to trump in the next two states and seems to have some momentum right now and is going to get the ‘late’ flood of money from these big-moneyed, ‘not Trump’ donors, like AFP and Ken Griffin...
And Chris Christie’s not going to drop out because he’s got nothing else to do. He never expected to be nominated. And he is only doing this so he can bash Donald trump right thru June of next year.
Greg asked me, yesterday, if Christie might drop out soon, and I said- no way. For those reasons.
By coincidence- later in the day-
Christie confirmed that he’s in this to the bitter end. Because his mission is to trash Trump.
So, he’s going to be a Bernie Sanders or a Ron Paul-and even though he has no chance of winning the nomination-he’s going to stay in and screw things up....and ‘spread his message’...
Okay. Whatever. It only helps Trump. And as I said earlier: if your primary choice is going to be either Donald trump or Nikki Haley by the time the Wisconsin primary comes around- I’ll probably vote Trump.
I know Haley could serve two terms and trump can’t, but I also want someone who’s bull-headed and is genuinely interested in moving a conservative, pro-America agenda. That describes Ron DeSantis and Donald trump. It doesn’t match Nikki Haley.
But here’s the thing: New Hampshire conservatives aren’t very ‘conservative’, and so Chris Christie is running third and getting about 11 percent of the vote in New Hampshire.
If he dropped out- virtually all those people would shift over to Nikki Haley and give her a better chance of beating trump there- correct?
And so- in a very real way-having tubby stay in and take even a sliver of votes away from Haley...as they move thru the early states.... harms the chances of anyone beating trump.
Let’s face it: Christie can trash Donald Trump all he wants and he’s not going to move the needle one single bit.
But if he was smart enough to drop out- he would.
Christie’s getting eleven percent of the vote in New Hampshire. That’s a big chunk of votes that would help Haley or DeSantis. Why’s he selfishly sitting on them? If he really wants to beat Trump?
It might surprise some of you to hear me say I’d put trump ahead of Haley on my primary ‘pecking order’...
But....my mission is always to ‘win’ and move the conservative agenda...and now that it’s clearer that Donald Trump-can win- next year, thanks to how tragically bad Joe Biden has been at this job.
And how greatly he’s screwed over and disappointed the American people-
Now I have fewer concerns about the general election outcome.
Sean Trende- an analyst for real clear politics-and a good one- says today: things have changed.
He says.... forget about the tentative and hesitant qualifiers that we’ve been putting on trump’s chances....
And that he.... could win...or.... might...win...
Trende says-given the shift in the polls we’ve now seen- if the election was held today Donald trump-would-win.
This is now a matter of -yes-Donald Trump-can win. And is the favorite.
Yep. And that wasn’t the case even three or four months ago. Biden’s across the board failures and lingering economic miseries have absolutely made Trump viable again-
To the point that-eleven months out? - virtually every bit of polling indicates he’s the favorite.
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