So, Paul Ryan said this in an interview over the weekend, and it has all sorts of undies in a twist.
Jay Weber Show transcript 2-27-23 7:10am
This position by Paul Ryan doesn’t surprise me in the least, given how toxic he thinks Donald Trump is for the party and the country.
Like many others, Ryan points to the series of lost election cycles since 2016-when trump won and his more populist movement took over the reins of the republican party: the GOP took significant losses in 2018, in 2020 (where trump was specifically rejected for a second term, even as republicans made unexpected gains in the house) ...and then again last fall: in 2022’s terribly disappointing elections.
And people in this audience are free to hate Paul Ryan if they want to- a lot of them do-since both trump and the far-right activist groups have engaged in their campaigns to vilify him and use him as a foil-
But- he is simply expressing his personal position-as a man and as a conservative leader. Everyone has the right to their own opinion.
I don’t draw the same line that Paul Ryan does.
I-do-believe that it’s time for the party to move past Trump. I do believe-that the results of those last three elections probably have proven that Donald Trump is more of a drag on the party than a boost for it. Especially now after the 2022 results.
And you’ve heard me say many times now that I’m ‘all in’ for Ron DeSantis or some other impressive candidate in the upcoming primaries.
That said-if Donald Trump is the GOP nominee next year- i won’t be boycotting the convention in our own back yard, and I’ll still be voting for trump in the general election against-any- democrat-because their party is now clearly an anti-American movement that is bent on destroying the greatest and most enduring parts of America, instead of defending them.
Yes-I’ve expressed my fear that-because 2/3 of independent voters and another chunk of GOP voters have vowed to ‘never again’ vote for trump, that he’d lose the general election, yes.
Further-
I fear that even if he could pull off the win-he would be an immediate lame duck that even most members of his own party in congress wouldn’t cooperate with...out of either bitterness...or out of a sense that their political futures were brighter if they acted as Trump foils rather than trump enablers.
And so, no, Ryan’s comments don’t have my undies in a knot: they aren’t unexpected.
Instead, i would suggest this is the significance of them: the fact that Ryan is now starting to say this thing more openly is significant. And he’s far from the only one.
What is significant to me-is the number of republicans and conservatives who-for years - have either held their tongue on trump... Like Ryan has...because they didn’t think it benefitted them, or the party to ‘engage’ with trump.... now doing so more openly.
And if you are a die-hard trump supporter, I’d suggest you get ready for far more of it coming his way over the next year and a half. Because-unlike 2016-when trump was a gut punch that neither the party nor the conservative movement was ready for-
It'll be a very different situation in 2024.
In 2016, trump came out of nowhere to capture the hearts and minds of most republican voters. He was new and refreshing and willing to-
A)Stand up for America in no squishy terms. And
B)Show a willingness to- dammit-fight back against these bullying democrats-
And sadly, that was so foreign to most establishment republicans and conservatives that it really threw them for a loop. Squishy, soft spoken ‘Jeb’ and ‘Marco’ sounded pathetic, in contrast to trump’s energy and fighting spirit. He came along and was willing to tip over the tables and disrupt things and it was viewed as ‘refreshing’ in 2016.
But six or seven years later-most see trump and his rhetorical bullying and his stunts to get attention as ‘fatiguing’.
Meanwhile, two other things are also true now:
First-trump is now a ‘loser’. Right?
And don’t get mad at me for stating it: he lost in 2020 and that makes him a ‘loser’ by his own definition. A definition that he routinely puts on his political enemies.
Well-now trump is a ‘loser’...technically. And has proven he can be beaten.
And second...the other members of the party and the movement have had time to get their feet back under them. Watch trump for years. Take the best lessons away from him- regarding his fighting spirit and challenging the false narratives, etc...
And I can assure you that his challengers for the 2024 nomination are going to be less afraid to challenge him directly...and engage in rhetorical wars with him.
Paul Ryan wasn’t the only one to take a shot at trump this weekend. Mike pence also did an interview in which he said there would be better choices for GOP voters in 2024-
And Pence was so committed to getting the shot in that he talked over the reporter doing the interview.
And so- Mike Pence say he’s not likely to get into the race until spring-but he’s already suggesting that he’s not going to be a wilting flower or be willing to take Trump’s verbal abuse on the campaign trail.
Nikki Haley has shown the same desire to portray trump as an old man whose best days are behind him. That’s going to be her argument against him. She’s already lumping Biden and trump together and disqualifying them due to age.
And then there’s Ron DeSantis. He’s beating trump in most of the polls that i have seen out of the states-which matter more-
As well as some of the national polls. Two out this weekend showed Trump with a double-digit lead nationally-Rasmussen and Fox polls-
And one out from a different group, WPA intelligence, has DeSantis up over trump by 24 points nationally...and in a wide field of candidates.
So, the national polls tell us nothing: either trump is a big favorite, or DeSantis is who knows?
But I’ve been reminding you that the primaries are statewide elections, not one big national election, and so far, -in the early states-from the polls I have seen- Ron DeSantis is ahead of trump.
California falls in the fourth or fifth week of primary voting, and so, it could play a significant role in any close contest coming out of the early states....and a poll out of California this weekend shows DeSantis way ahead of trump in that state. By 17 points, currently.
And so- even if conventional wisdom would still have trump as the favorite to get the 2024 nomination, I’m not sure i agree with that, anymore.
Again, this weekend- some of the GOP’s biggest donors seemed eager to flock to an ‘insider’ event held by DeSantis’s camp.
And we have already seen some of Trump’s top donors and supporters from 2016 and 2020 say- they will be backing someone else in 24...and most of them point to DeSantis.
He is simply the hot property in the party right now, and Donald Trump isn’t, anymore. And this is how politics works.
It’s why those who say DeSantis needs to ‘wait his turn’ are being silly. A big part of politics is ‘timing’ and striking while your stock is high. If you think you can win that higher seat-you don’t wait around until other people tell you it’s ‘your turn’.
You run. And DeSantis will.
Meanwhile-in Iowa- reporters seem surprised that ‘Iowa is going to be Iowa’. The voters of that state have a very high opinion of themselves as being the ‘informed deciders’ who set the tone for the rest of the country-
And if you look back at who the nominees eventually turned out to be- no, Iowa’s voters don’t really do that. They don’t have a great track record of picking the nominees-
But- they want to consider themselves special-
And they also want to consider themselves ‘extremely fair and open minded’. So, you will always get this same claim, but Iowa republicans say they are open to someone other than Trump.
There are some in the article who say DeSantis should wait his turn-
And there’s even a woman who says her dream ticket is trump on top-DeSantis as the running mate.
That will never happen. Ron DeSantis will not want to go from being the ‘decider’ who runs the show in Florida to being a largely useless and powerless VP. Nor will he want his image ‘tainted’ by an association with trump.
And again-some of you want to get angry at me for stating the truth- but outside of pro-trump circles- an association with Donald Trump is-not- a positive, any longer.
To the point that-if he did win a second term-he could have a hard time filling his cabinet...given that no one in dc or with experience in govt. wants to be associated with him.
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