Jay Weber Show transcript 12-8-22 6:10am
It was the most-frequently asked question in my email, yesterday: is Herschel Walker’s loss signaling Donald trump’s political obituary?
I know that probably half of this audience at this point-wants that to be true- and the other half wants to believe that nothing ‘touches’, or sticks to, Donald trump and that the American people are going to elect him again in 2024.
The WISN audience is as divided on Donald Trump as they were when he first ran in 2016...and the Trump/Ted Cruz primary came thru here...and we all took up sides.
And no, I don’t think Hershel’s loss is the dagger in trump’s political career...but it certainly doesn’t help.
Instead, I’d characterize it as, yet another ‘cut’ in a political career that seems to be suffering ‘death by a thousand cuts.
Between Trump’s actions since his loss: his selfish obsession with 2020. His terrible track record of selecting newby GOP candidates who could win the primary with his endorsement but not win the general-
And with his growing number of indefensible actions.... this is death by a thousand cuts.
By indefensible actions...I’m talking about agreeing to have dinner with newly minted black antisemite, Kanye West, and being sucked into dining with a famous white supremacist at the same table.
No one with a brain and a backbone is going to leap to defend that.
And his comments related to suspending the constitution this week. Again.Conservatives and patriots don’t call to suspend or ignore the constitution when it doesn’t suit them...and no one with any internal conservative compass is going to defend that.
But don’t’ confuse this characterization of ‘death by a thousand cuts’ as me officially writing off Trump’s political career.
I’m not. He could certainly bounce back from a few bad weeks...and refocus. The real 24 primary is still a ways away...and the danger for a party whose leaders and voters now, mostly, want to move past Trump...is that ...regardless of what Trump-ever-says or does- he’s going to have a hardcore 30 to 40 percent of the GOP base that is simply never, never, never going to admit he’s a bad candidate in 24 and we need to move on.
I’ll say it again: the most likely scenario, today, is that the republicans are going to have to lose again in 2024, to prove to the Trump diehards that ‘it’s over’.
And i don’t know about you, but i don’t want to be trapped in another four-year hell-cycle with a dem in the White House because we on the right had to -prove- to diehard trump fans that he wasn’t viable.
I can-absolutely-see him winning the primary with his 35 percent support...because all the other candidates split the vote...
Only to have trump smoked in the general election because 2/3 of the country is now consistently saying that they won’t vote for him again.
This is my nightmare scenario.
But it gets worse: I can also envision Donald Trump-not-getting the nomination, and then having he and his diehard followers setting out to destroy Ron DeSantis and the republican party’s chances....because trump got snubbed.
Oh, yeah.
In this moment? Yeah-we are looking at a scenario in which-if trump wins the 2024 nomination, we lose...and if he-loses- the 2024 nomination...we lose...unless he goes away quietly after not getting the nom..
And I’ll just ask you now: does Donald Trump seem like the type of guy who will just go away quietly if he doesn’t win the nomination in ’24?
Or is he more likely to work to actively destroy the GOP’s chances?
I’m just being honest.
And as someone who has given Donald Trump the benefit of the doubt on almost everything over the last six years...I believe I also have the standing to say ‘let’s also be honest about how the moderates and independents and cross over democrats who put trump in the white house in 2016-are now gone-and are not coming back.
And the evidence of that is in now-three-election cycles in which republicans were expected to do better and saw disappointing results.
But this fall? 2022? Oof.
There’s simply no way to spin this as ‘not trump’s fault’. He has almost singlehandedly lost Georgia’s two senate seats for us and cost us control of the US Senate now-for two election cycles. Four years.
Trump convinced Georgia republicans to clear the way for a Walker run saying he’d be phenomenal...and the guy was a never-ending gaffe and scandal machine.
Now that the election is over, several people who were insiders in Hershel’s campaign are admitting that he never should have run. He never told us about major scandals and bad behaviors he had in this past...
And because he didn’t...we were constantly being blindsided by new scandals from his past.
In fact, these veterans go on to express surprise that Walker managed to keep it close thru-out the entire time despite the true battery of bombshells that were revealed about him. They say-it’s a testament to his general likability and the fondness that the people of Georgia have for him...but wow.... They just couldn’t see sending him to the u-s senate, no.
They also say Hershel and his wife were under some relentless delusion that he was going to get 50 percent of the black vote...and/or...they needed to get 50 percent of the black vote...
And that caused them to waste an awful lot of time on useless campaign stops that ended up being fruitless. The preliminary snapshot of exit polling suggested that Raphael Warnock got 93 percent of the black vote-
Which is a genuine gut-punch for Hershel. Oof.
The final number might not be that stilted, but walker did not perform well with black Georgians...
And this was Trump’s guy.
And now that it is all over-, we can say- yes. The problem was: Hershel.
Yeah.
Every other republican in Georgia who ran on that statewide ticket won on November 8th. Every one of them. And virtually all of them won by the 7 or 8 point margin that Governor Brian Kemp had....
This was relentlessly circulating on social media, yesterday: Georgia republicans won.
In every other instance-on that Georgia ticket- Brian Kemp's performance dragged every other republican running state-wide to victory.
Except Herschel.
There was so much ticket-splitting that he came in 8 percentage points behind kemp in the November race..
And then- lost ground! - in his runoff race in December. Raphael Warnock won by a three-point margin on Tuesday...instead of the one-point margin he won by in November.
Hershel Walker-was-the problem. He turned out to be a terrible candidate. He blew a race that republicans should have won -in that red state-with no problem.
Jay Weber Show transcript 12-8-22 7:40am
I did a segment earlier about Hershel Walker’s loss and whether it signaled the end of Donald Trump’s political career, as numerous conservative pundits are now saying.
My take is-no-it doesn’t because Donald Trump has such a loyal and unwavering base of support. They, alone, are going to carry him thru the next year or more as the ‘most likely’ 2024 nominee.
But Hershel’s loss certainly doesn’t help...based on how directly he is tied to trump.Walker was, famously, one of trump’s handpicked candidates.
And like Dr. Oz in Pennsylvania- these ‘celebrity candidates’ Trump hand selected didn’t just flop-they led to a significant level of ‘ticket splitting’ as a large group of republicans and GOP leaners voted in favor of -other-republicans on the ballot-but voted against Walker or Oz.
The results speak for themselves, now.
Republican and independent voters in Georgia rejected Hershel Walker-twice- within a one-month window. And the results and exit polls and exit interviews with GOP insiders down there make it clear- he- was the problem.
Hershel was a uniquely bad candidate...and Donald Trump hand picked him...and promoted him as a lock to win.
The other takeaway from this year that republicans and conservatives need to accept if we are going to start winning again-is that Trump’s obsession with 2020 is a real buzzkill...and is damaging his brand and ours.
I’ve taken heat over this simple truth for some time now, every time I bring it up with an audience that -i am now certain-is split on Donald Trump.
I now realize that no matter what my take is-if it’s trump related- I’ll be annoying or angering half the audience...
But...I’ve always tried to tell the truth as i see it-and it has been clear for some time that the obsession over the 2020 results is now harming the party-and causing republicans to start rejecting trump...in large chunks.
They appreciate him for beating Hillary, saving the courts, being a great president on both domestic and foreign affairs, etc. But...if 2/3 of the country won’t vote for him again, he can’t win again.
And that’s starting to dawn on more and more GOP voters, obviously.
Byron York puts Trump’s record on the races that he got personally involved with-at 2 and 5.
And for the last three weeks-Trump has been preoccupied with damage control from more indefensible gaffes: first having dinner with black anti-Semite, Kanye and Hispanic ‘white supremacist’ Nick Fuentes...
And then by suggesting the constitution should be suspended and he should be reinstalled as president because twitter’s electioneering has been more fully exposed.
As constitutional scholar and – nearly constant trump defender-Jonathan Turley says: the constitution doesn’t give mulligans to people who want another shot at an election face-off.
It’s just not in there. Nor in the bill of rights. Nor in the federalist papers....
And so, trump’s call for a do-over struck conservative voters-and leaders- and even most trump supporters- as ‘alarming’. Way off base.
Not at all conservative or patriotic.
And so-as of today?
No- i don’t know that Donald Trump could never, ever, never, ever win in 2024...but his odds are already astronomical and this is with a likely indictment and myriad other court cases and controversies -still ahead!
And whether i think any of them are fair or warranted-no-
But that’s a separate question from: will they disqualify him in the minds of most voters for a second term?
That answer is- yes.
And as I said earlier- I hate to depress listeners further. But I simply believe this is the situation-in this moment-
We could be looking at a situation in which-if trump gets the GOP nomination in 2024...we lose again...and if Trump-doesn’t get-the 2024 nomination...we still lose.
Because if he doesn’t.... he’s not going to go away quietly. Every instinct and action that we have seen from this man over the last seven years- suggests that if he is denied the nom...and will work to ruin the nominee’s chances and harm the party.
And if he -does? -get the nom? He won’t win.
It annoys me to no end that we may need to endure-another losing cycle in 2024-and endure another four years of a destructive democrat in the white house...just to prove to the base of our own party that see? See? Do you believe it now? Trump’s not the answer to-anything-anymore.
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