Jay Weber Show transcript 11-8-22 6:40am
So- I don’t want to put the cart before the horse-but a growing number of people in Washington DC are doing just that: they are assuming that democrats will suffer a significant series of defeats tonight...and that is going to leave the party scrambling for scapegoats and excuses.
It is already clear that if this is a devastating blowout for DC Dems that Joe Biden is ‘readymade’ as an object of blame and we’d see party leaders and their political machine focus on Biden, insist he’s the reason their party is so screwed up.
They’d make him the object of scorn and try to attach the stink of hate to him...before they kicked him under the bus.
If tonight is a bloodbath- the chorus insisting Joe Biden cannot run for a second term will start immediately.
That’s no surprising.
But this-kind of is it turns out that Biden’s White House already has a litany of excuses and spin plotted out....
And according to the Washington Post....Biden’s team fully intends to label anything short of the loss of 30 house seats as ‘a win’ for the president.
We have talked about how all sorts of conservative pundits are talking about the democrats losing 50 or 60 seats in the house tonight. That simply isn’t realistic given how many strong, safe seats the democrats have.
Realistically?A huge route? Would be democrats losing 35 to 40 seats. That’s a huge route.
Losing 30 would be a significant route for the GOP.
So... against that backdrop....we are told by the wash post that Biden’s team is prepared to label anything short of a 30 seat loss-which would still be devastating- they plan to spin as a ‘win’ for Biden and the party.
When a new president is elected to office...his victory brings along with him.... dozens of new house seats and a bunch of new senate seats because-his party- had a big night. He’s the more popular candidate. More people voted democrat. More democrats win...won. What ‘coat tails’ a president has: he dragged so many other dems to victory with him.
And Obama did.Trump did.
Joe Biden-did not.
Joe Biden famously won a -very hinkey-election in which he insisted he got 80-million votes-
8 million more than Trump...and yet...republicans-gained-seats in the house.
It was another very odd result from an election that a lot of us still insist wasn’t on the up-and-up.
So- Biden wins the presidency-but brings? Zero? Other democrats along with him?
The dems still lost fourteen members in the house and narrowly won a seat in the senate that gave them control?
That was an-awful-showing for Joe Biden.
And so-I think you get the point: joe Biden bragging that he lost fewer seats now-during his first midterm- is really bragging that he didn’t have any coattails in 2020. He got no other dems elected, other than himself....and so...fewer democrats are likely to lose now...midterm.
This is not a ‘brag’, but this is how Biden’s White House is intending to spin 30 or 35 losses: well, Obama and trump lost a lot more in their first midterm. So, joe’s doing great!
If you believe that, you’re a dope. And yet, i have no doubt that -if the democrats put that out as spin- the ignorant lefties on our social media sights and text line will be mindlessly parroting it out: oh yeah, well, trump lost 40 seats ...so.
Get ready for it, Greg, even though it is the dumbest spin-ever.
As one pundit puts it, this is like bragging you lost by three touchdowns instead of five.
Also...even if democrats would-by some miracle-end up with 200 or 205 members....as republicans had 230 or 235....that would still represent a stronger majority than republicans have had since 2002.
If there really is a historical red wave building and we blow right past my prediction of 35 or 40 seats flipped.... Well then.... Then we really are cutting into the ‘meat’ of the democrat districts.
That would be astounding.
And-if it happens-it would be because the rumors about Black and Latino voters abandoning the democrat party in sizable numbers would be coming true.
I’m skeptical that we are going to see the sizable shift over to the GOP from blacks and Hispanics of the sort that the pundits have been talking about...
I -do-see a shift occurring-but if it’s more than double the number of Black and Hispanic voters shifting over- as compared to 2020-that would be incredible.
The latest Wall St Journal numbers suggest 17 percent of black voters say they are voting republican this year. That would be up from just 8 percent who voted republican in 2020.
Now-come on that’s a seismic shift of 9 points...and double...the number of black people voting republican. I don’t see it happening.
Among Latino voters? The shift is 6 percentage points and is more reasonable. Biden beat trump by 21 percentage points among Latinos in 2020.
If that margin is cut to a 15-percentage point advantage among Latinos for dems? That I could believe.
The question is whether the shift will be lasting or temporary?
And the answer to that question depends on whether republicans continue to give reasons to Black and Hispanic voters to stick with them? And whether the democrats remain on this extreme, arrogant path that they have been on- that is turning off so many average Americans. Of all races.
Folks-this shift over to Republicans by some chunk of the democrat demographics-whether it’s Blacks, Hispanics, or suburban women- is being driven by democrats- chasing them away.... more so than republicans ‘luring them in’.
It helps greatly that the republicans so clearly stand out as the party of ‘reason’ and ‘the reasonable’...this election cycle...but the reason this shift is occurring away from democrats is primarily due to the democrat party turning into the party of the arrogant coastal elites and-more and more- the arrogant young socialists.
The democrats-today-are more out of touch with the American people than I have ever seen them before...
And it has very little to do with race. Blacks, Hispanics, Asians, strict jews, are all feeling attacked by ...and rejected by this democrat party.
The left’s own long-time expert says democrats are driving Hispanic voters away...and if this is now the permanent posture of the democrat party: arrogant, woke, anti-family, anti-prosperity..
Then...the decades-long theory that a growing wave of black and brown voters is going to mean permanent democrat control someday-is way off.
photo credit: Getty Images