Jay Weber Show transcript 9-15-22 7:10am
So... within one polling cycle- Mandela Barnes allegedly goes from leading Ron Johnson by seven or eight points-to losing to him by one.
This is according to the latest Marquette poll, which shows a shocking swing toward Senator Johnson...now that the general election race has ‘engaged’ and it doesn’t shock me at all.
We knew this was a matter of making voters more aware of Barnes’ radical track record. And that’s not just some cute way of saying ‘we got to smear Barnes’...
I genuinely mean what I say: Mandela Barnes has a well-known history of supporting the most extreme positions taken by members of today’s democrat party.
He is right there with Bernie Sanders, Ilhan Omar, AOC, and Warren with unions on things like-defunding the police. Abolishing ice. Crippling capitalism, attacking prosperity with more tax hikes.... Etc.
It's a long track record-and most of it is on tape. There is audio and video of Mandela Barnes saying such things-and that’s a powerful tool for Senator Johnson and Republicans.
All we’ve needed to do, on the conservative side of the aisle, is ‘roll the tape’. Here’s Barnes, praising AOC, Ilhan Omar, and the party radicals.
Here are Bernie, AOC, and squats- endorsing Mandela Barnes during the primary.
Here are the -states’ own govt statistics-on how Mandela Barnes has used the state trooper’s protection unit as his own personal valet and car service...
Etc. It’s not as if Barnes’ critics have had to make any of it up. It’s all been documented.
But, until the general election race got underway, most Wisconsinites hadn’t heard about most of these instances. They’re just learning of them now...
One of the take-aways from the Marquette poll is that Mandela Barnes’ ‘unfavorable’ numbers are moving up. The TV ads and articles highlighting his- real-track record...are having an effect.
The head-to-head number is now- Ron Johnson 49 and Mandela Barnes 48. This is a dramatic shift from Marquette’s first survey, which had Barnes up 51-44.
And a few things are worth noting here: first-
Last month’s poll by Charles Franklin and his students was of ‘registered voters’. It was among a wider pool of respondents: it surveyed anyone who would pick up the phone who said they were a voter.
This month’s survey was narrowed down to ‘likely voters. Voters who said they were going to vote in fall. It’s also a good-sized sample of over 800 respondents. A good ideological mix.
And so-we’ve got a good methodology here, underlying this...
But ‘likely voters’ are always a more valuable sample than ‘registered voters.
So that’s one thing to point out-as to why these numbers have changed- but that doesn’t explain how or why they have changed so dramatically.
Folks-
Not only did Mandela Barnes lose 3 percentage points and see his unfavorable go up.... but Ron Johnson also gained five points. Going from 44 percent support to 49 percent support.
That’s a dramatic shift. Especially in a divided state like Wisconsin. And the MU internals suggest it’s due to a huge shift among independent.
Charles franklin has Johnson picking up 8 percentage points among independents...to now lead with them by two points- 48-46.
And I’d expect that margin to grow as we move toward fall.
Why?
Not being a border state, and with other more pressing issues affecting voters, I am not surprised that the border issue and immigration have fallen off the list of ‘biggest issues’, but you see there that abortion is still behind- inflation, crime, accurate elections, public schools and gun violence.
As an issue- in Wisconsin- abortion comes in sixth. It is- not- turning into a major issue in fall and it won’t save the democrats’ majorities.
Not when high grocery and gas prices and rampant street crime persist.
And have any of my instincts on this election, or this election cycle been wrong yet?
No.
This new poll is-good news for senator Johnson, indeed, and no, it doesn’t surprise me- i predicted Johnson would close strong as he has in his previous two elections.
And there’s more good news: by coincidence, on the same day, yesterday, the leader of the senate effort to retake the majority...senator Rick Scott...came walking into the senate caucus room yesterday with some good news: he shared internal polling with the group that shows Ron Johnson actually leading-by four- in this race.
The voters of Wisconsin are starting to learn the truth about Mandela Barnes: he is not the reasonable-sounding moderate who is currently pretending to be in his ads.
And I’ll give you at least one more factor to consider here, as we analyze this senate race.
Also remember that- democrats and their activist operatives have been attacking and smearing Ron Johnson for nearly two years- in an attempt to soften him up early.
Haven’t they?
We have watched a coordinated campaign by the left, ever since January sixth, to try to strap Ron Johnson to Donald trump. And attack Johnson mercilessly, until it disqualified him as a viable candidate for re-election.
Has it worked?
No. And one reason it hasn’t is that-in Biden’s America...the last two years....
Have made it clear that-however quirky or mavericky Ron Johnson might be perceived to be-
A democrat is worse.
The dems have hurled every. Single. Negative attack. And every single negative smear they could think of-against Ron Johnson over the last two years...and he’s still leading this race and closing in on 50 percent support in both polls.
That. Is awesome.
And it has to be gut-wrenching for Ben Wicker, the head of the WI Dems, as well as Schumer, Pelosi, and the activist groups nationally and here in Wisconsin, who have helped coordinate the attacks.
I’m loving these numbers.
But – we also have to step back, and say-we’ve still got nearly two months until election day, and a lot can happen between then and now.
Ron Johnson and his supporters are going to be outspent here by two-or-three to one...between now and election day.
The Barnes campaign and the outside special interest groups who support him-and who-hated-Ron Johnson, have already been swinging into Wisconsin and dropping millions of dollars on ad buys and canvassing efforts to defeat senator Johnson...and we on our side...need to match that if we can.
If you have had any reluctance to this point-to donate to either the Johnson or Tim Michels campaigns-now is a good time to do it.
If you have been putting off stopping at one of their campaign offices to volunteer your time...now is the time to do it. Because the ‘real race’ to the finish line starts today. Starts this week.
The lawmakers in dc, and all of the leaders and organizers of those interest groups, are now all back in Washington after their august recess- and they are all finalizing their plans...making their new pushes for donations...and marching their first waves of warriors into battle.
Now is the time to get engaged, yourself, if you plan to, but haven’t.
If you were holding off on donations until you saw whether Ron Johnson and Tim Michels were viable candidates-they are.
Not only are they viable-but they are either tied or slightly leading their races.
And yes, I believe Tim Michels is either tied with Tony Evers or slightly ahead, and i will explain why in a different segment.
We conservatives, republicans, and independents of good will-could absolutely put a republican in the governor’s chair and send Senator Johnson back to Washington for another six year term this fall...if we have our ‘stuff’ together. And if we are motivated. If we take-nothing-for granted.
photo credit: Fox 6 News Milwaukee