The Jay Weber Show

The Jay Weber Show

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Latest MU poll finds Michels with a good chance to beat Evers

Jay Weber Show transcript 9-15-22 8:10am

If you have had any reluctance to this point-to donate to either the Johnson or Tim Michels campaigns-now is a good time to do it.

If you have been putting off stopping at one of their campaign offices to volunteer your is the time to do it. Because the ‘real race’ to the finish line starts today. Starts this week.

The lawmakers in DC, and all the leaders and organizers of those interest groups, are now all back in Washington after their august recess- and they are all finalizing their plans...making their new pushes for donations...and marching their first waves of warriors into battle.

Now is the time to get engaged, yourself, if you plan to, but haven’t. 

I said earlier: if you have been holding off on donations to Ron Johnson and Tim Michels until you knew they were viable general election candidates-they are.

Not only are they viable-but they are either tied or slightly leading their races according to both the latest Marquette poll-and even more importantly-in the internal polls that the GOP operatives are conducting.

We - absolutely-can put a republican in the governor’s chair and send Senator Johnson back to Washington for another six-year term this fall...if we get motivated and if we take-nothing-for granted.

I did an earlier segment explaining why the mu poll shifted so dramatically in senator Johnson’s favor-from him being down seven- or 8-points last month-to being ahead by a point now...

And the reasons boil down to:

This poll measures ‘likely’ voters instead of just registered voters.

And the biggest reason: this poll shows Mandela Barnes’ unfavorable ratings are rising because voters are finally learning more about his far-left track record and his numerous negatives.

I have been predicting this would be the trajectory of the race because Mandela Barnes has a well-known history of supporting the most extreme positions taken by members of today’s democrat party.

He has praised, and gotten endorsements from, Bernie sanders, Ilhan Omar, AOC, and squats with unions and he has been right there with them on -defunding the police. Abolishing ice. Crippling capitalism, attacking prosperity with more tax hikes.... Yes.

It's a long track record-and most of it is on tape.

And now Johnson’s campaign and helpful conservative groups are running TV ads informing the voters of Wisconsin on it.

So now let’s move to the governor’s race, which Charles franklin and his Marquette pollsters have as, essentially, unmoved. 

Last month, their numbers showed Governor Evers up by two points. This month it shows a three-point margin-it’s essentially unmoved if you consider the margin of error...

And based on Marquette’s internals on this race, and other information i have, I’ll be ‘more optimistic’, because I believe Tim Michels is either tied with Tony Evers or slightly ahead.

Why would I say that if Marquette’s numbers are unchanged...or they show Michaels eroded one point?

For a few reasons:

First, because I happen to know that the more careful, internal polling on this race has showed a tied race for weeks. 

And second, because Tony Evers is hanging out below 50 percent support among these likely voters-as he was among the registered voters-

And this is with a third-party independent who just recently dropped out of the race and the remaining undecideds more likely to break for Michels, than Evers.

The Marquette internals show that GOV Evers’ negatives are going up with voters...along with Mandela Barnes’....

In September-among likely voters now- MU has Evers’ approval rating at 45 percent, and his disapproval rating at 55 percent.

That-does not suggest-that ‘undecideds’ will break his way. Moreover, there’s the long-time adage in politics a situation like this...the incumbent isn’t going to get the

An incumbent is vulnerable when they are only two points ahead after their challenger just came out of a tough primary.

Tim Michels just came out of a tough primary-and we have a statistically tied race. Uh oh, tony.

Next-when an incumbent cannot get above 50 percent, he’s even more vulnerable.


Tony Evers was getting 45 percent support from the more generic pool of registered voters in august...and when Charles Franklin moved to the more accurate pool of ‘likely voters’ for September, Evers only picked up two points to 47 percent. Michels saw a similar bump.

Then-three: Carville says a well-known incumbent doesn’t get the undecideds. 

If that’s true...Tim Michels will get the bulk of the final nine percent of undecideds.... or they won’t vote. If they aren’t in ‘Evers’ camp now, they aren’t likely to be two months from now.

Here’s another factor:

This is the third reason that i believe Tim Michels is leading this race...and will pull it out: because he has been quietly campaigning-not just in the parts of Wisconsin that you’d expect a republican candidate to campaign in-but also in some unexpected, heavily democrat areas.

This is a man who showed some surprising wins in the primary- where he wasn’t expected to do so well-simply because he is an unconventional candidate...a successful businessman who is a big name in ‘construction’. He and his businesses have been good to their trade union workers over the years...

So, there’s a ‘blue collar’ demographic here that these polls aren’t measuring that I am convinced will show up in November’s results...

As well as numbers that show Tim Michels did better-on the margins-with minority voters in Milwaukee than he was expected to. 

Michaels has been campaigning on the north and south sides. He’s talking to any group or voter who wants to meet him on the street, or at a neighborhood event.

I’ve been impressed with how hard Tim Michels is working-but also how diverse his stops have been.

He knows crime and education are very important issues for Milwaukee voters, and he’s taking his ‘law and order’ message and his ‘school alternatives’ message to the black and Hispanic communities whose members-do-want to see crime addressed and -do-want to see schools improve- and they’ve seen nothing from Evers aside from hollow rhetoric.

In short: I see Tim Michels as a far more unconventional and appealing candidate than other pundits the news media are giving him credit for.

This guy-is-Trumpian-in the sense that he-is-connecting with voters in unconventional and unexpected ways.

I’m not saying he’s going to win -half- of the minority vote in Milwaukee and cruise to a landslide victory-

But I am saying that I could see him winning a sliver of unexpected voters here, and a sliver of unexpected voters there...and a sliver of trade union members...unexpectedly...

And he’ll pull out the victory.

And so- I’m not blowing smoke here when I say-now is- the time to write the donation check. Now is the time to volunteer for the campaign. 

Michels has a -good chance- of beating governor Evers, as things now stand.

photo credit: Fox 6 News Milwaukee


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