Jay Weber Show transcript
How good am I?
After taking a few minutes yesterday to thoroughly debunk the claims in the glitterati media that the two sides are tied in the ‘generic ballot’ question.... another new poll is released that shows it’s a seven-point gap-in favor of the GOP.
I explained yesterday how the most accurate pollsters over time- who also had the most recent polls added into the real clear politics rolling average-have the republicans leading on this question by 5 and 8 points, respectively, and I predicted that the other polls would also start to show a ‘widening’ advantage for republicans again, in short order, as we moved into fall.
Well- by coincidence yesterday, a YouGov/economist poll was released that shows a seven-point GOP advantage.
This is right in line with the other two most recent polls...and it also shows republicans leading on those questions that measure ‘voter enthusiasm’ and which side has more people who say they are -definitely-going to vote.
These are all different measures: the generic ballot question is-if you had to vote today-which party would you be voting for-for congress?
Again- that’s a plus-7 for the GOP.
Then- which party’s members are more enthused to vote? That’s a nine-point advantage for republicans.
And finally- the percentage of respondents who said they would definitely vote- that was a seven-point advantage for republicans.
What this means is- if these poll numbers are anything close to accurate-there is still a significant GOP advantage here.
And I say ‘if’ they are close to accurate- well- one way you measure that is against other polls.
And we’ve got Trafalgar and Rasmussen-two of the most accurate pollsters over time- mirroring these results and mirroring a GOP advantage in the generic ballot question that is about -seven points.
The other thing that this economist poll verifies-again-is that, no, independent voters are not starting to slide back toward Biden and the democrats. This poll still shows only 29 percent of independents approving of the job Biden is doing-compared to 59 percent who disapprove of the job he’s doing.
Again-if only one in three independents is impressed with this gum. And two out of three aren’t...it’s hard to make the case that democrats are going to do well in fall, or that their fortunes are changing.
And I know we in the media can become ‘poll happy’, but they are the only more ‘scientific’ measure that we have of what our fellow countrymen might be thinking-even if many of them have proven to be more and more inaccurate over time.
And so-circling back to President Biden’s ‘magi Mussolini speech-
And folks, it was a full week ago that Biden gave this very ugly, divisive speech that most democrats want to pretend was great: was a clarion call to defend democracy-
It’s been a full week and both sides of the news media are both talking about it- mostly in negative terms-
This was a backfire.
And I circle back to it on day six- because a new Trafalgar group poll shows that Biden’s message turned off about 6 in ten Americans...and only about 3 in ten say it was a good message for Americans to hear.
This is Trafalgar, and it mirrors at least one other poll I saw with similar results...from a conservative leaning group: Biden’s angry message of ‘you’re either with me, or you’re the enema’. Turned off 6 in 10 people. And failed to impress most others.
Remember ‘independent voters count more’....
These are the people who will be deciding the elections, and if you notice, even more independent voters found this odious, than simply ‘all Americans’.
A full two thirds of independents found Biden’s message as one designed to incite conflict and potentially dangerous.
That’s not a ‘win’ for Biden and democrats.
And by the way-this was a poll of likely voters, so it was probably people who pay a little closer attention to politics-and- will vote in fall.
And of course, most democrats said they liked the message-but even twenty percent of democrats- one-in-five democrats.... said it was dangerous and divisive language that turned them off.
So, a week later, i think we can say that the president’s big night-time Nuremberg address-was a failure.
And look-if the mission by Biden and his team was to pump up his base while trying to divide republican voters...well.... The results of the YouGov poll, at the very least, would suggest that that hasn’t happened. Biden even failed on that level.
This might be worse than the speech itself: also consider that, even as Biden’s white house has tried to back track, and soften the rhetoric that had him labeling half of this country fascist-
Other democrats and their talking heads in the media-have instead- run with Biden’s dark message!
Hey- they just want to call anyone who doesn’t agree with them a dangerous fascist, because if you vilify your critics there’s no need to take what they say seriously correct?
And so- other democrats are quite happy to keep selling and perpetuating this ‘Maga fascist’ language that Biden has put out there.
They’ll keep insulting the rest of us...even if Biden backs off.
And we’ve talked about what a desperate, dirty political tactic this is: Biden wants Americans divided and hating each other- instead of unifying around the ‘solid truth’ that he has bleeped up the country in a -big- way.
He and the democrats don’t want-anyone-talk about the nine percent inflation they touched off, or the rampant new crime wave they touched off, or the open borders crisis they touched off, or the thousands of Americans Biden left in a war zone-or the hundreds of potential terrorists he has let into the country either over the border-or one evac-ed planes from Afghanistan-
And so- they distract with this nonsense.
It is why republican candidates -as a mission-have to keep dragging the conversation back to the last two years of catastrophe and failure-and must keep making the point: this was all unnecessary.
None of this-the high gas prices, the high inflation, the open borders, the crime crisis-none of this- had to happen.
Biden and the democrats- engineered it all. Bleeped it all up.
And the second part of that messaging is, yes, republicans can do better.
Republican candidates also must run on their own set of promises and what they will do.
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