Jay Weber Show transcript 8-22-22
Mitch McConnell’s comments on how the republicans might not take the senate had listeners worked up this weekend.
And no, he shouldn’t have said it-and sounded defeatist-but -
Let’s take a step back and acknowledge a few things, here.
First-that taking back the Senate was always the tougher challenge-
And second-that no matter what- republicans are very likely to retake control of the house, meaning that President Biden’s agenda would be dead in the water, anyway.
That reality-above all- needs to be kept in mind, here: the talking heads can pretend as if Nancy Pelosi and the democrats have a chance of keeping or expanding their majorities in the house. They don’t.
That goes against every historical trend we have in an off-year mid-term like this, and it’s not going to happen for a president’s party...when the president in question has a 38 to 40 percent approval rating.
The democrats-will not- keep control of the house, and I’m willing to bet my own house on it.
And so-regardless of what happens in the Senate- the democrat agenda will be ‘dead in the water’ because they will no longer have complete control of Washington DC.
This will be the new reality as of next January, when a group of new republican house members will be sworn in.
Pelosi and the democrats can only afford to lose about five house seats and they are back in the minority, and currently, about 30 house seats are expected to flip to republicans.
And while that would suggest a ‘red tsunami’, yes, any number short of that would also do.
And so-let’s pretend that -holy cow- the democrats went on a huge string of good luck between now and November, and Joe Biden’s approval rating bounced back up to 46 percent, and hey- forget any talk of a red tsunami. The democrats are back, baby.
Even under that scenario, the democrats would almost certainly lose the house.
And they would, because there are at least ten democrat seats that are -going-to flip in fall.
One of them would be right here in Wisconsin: even Nancy Pelosi doesn’t think she’s going to be able to keep Ron Kind’s seat. He’s retiring. Derrick van Orden almost beat him last time.
This time around, van Orden has been out campaigning in the district for two years, has raised nearly four-million dollars, is running tv ads in the Eau Claire and La Crosse markets.... and... gee...the Dem candidate was just chosen in the primary august ninth. Has no money. Has low name recognition.
Even Pelosi has no hope of keeping that seat. And so, gee, that’s one win and we only need five more. And Kevin McCarthy and the republicans are back in charge of the house.
So- don’t get too panicky or alarmed. The GOP will take the house.
And as for taking the senate? The map was always a bad one for republicans, and retaking the senate was always in question.
And no, having two or three clunky candidates doesn’t help. And before you tightly wound trump fans get huffy- hear me out.
I’m not bashing Trump...and I’m not defending Mitch...I’m suggesting this is another dust up that is ‘much ado about nothing’.
Folks, Mitch McConnell didn’t say anything outrageous or indefensible. I also don’t believe he was suggesting any ‘fate accompli’.
I do believe that he-was-tweaking Donald trump for encouraging and endorsing a few crummy candidates to run, yes. But that’s as far as it goes.
In general, nervous republicans and trump supporters ‘read’ more into Mitch’s comments than there really was. That’s my take on -this-statement.
Did he say anything that was false? No.
The senate races-are-different than congressional races because they have to be run statewide-and each state has pockets of liberals and conservatives.
Nor is he wrong that some of these candidates-are- clunkers this year-and Donald Trump promoted and endorsed them early including
Dr. Oz in Pennsylvania and Hershel Walker in Georgia.
But this can happen when the party looks outside the normal political scene for new candidates. Trump’s track record on endorsements is something like 209 wins...to 19 loses now, or something like that.
And there have been a few clunkers.
It’s just too bad that two of them are in very important senate races, this year: Pennsylvania and Georgia.
Both of these races should have been rather easy wins this year, amidst the backdrop of a failing Biden presidency and instead- it looks like Dr. Oz is going to lose to a stone cold socialist who missed most of the campaign due to a stroke...
And it looks like walker could even lose Georgia. And that is a race that-literally- no republican should lose. Raphael Warnock was only elected due to the 2020 recount snafus down there...and that is a red state that should be able to deliver that senate race with no problem-
And instead- Herschel Walker has turned out to be a troubled candidate. I still think he can pull it off...but...let’s not deny the obvious: Walker and Oz turned out to be two noticeably bad candidates. Any other republican probably would have had no problem winning these races.
Folks-there are only really four competitive senate races this year: those two, and races in Arizona and Wisconsin, in which the republicans are both currently behind in the polls. This is Ron Johnson and Blake Masters. I have less concern over Johnson winning...
But Blake Masters is running against Mark Kelly, in Arizona, and Kelly has taken pains to pretend to be all mavericky and moderate- like Kirsten Sinema, and so, Arizona’s democrats haven’t abandoned him like they’ve abandoned Biden.
As an incumbent-he may survive.
And it’s almost certain that the Dem’s polling advantage in these races ends up fading. It’s also quite possible that Biden and the democrat agenda may be too big a drag on these democrat candidates to overcome-
After all- these races are all about turnout, and the polls never account for turnout. I still think republicans will end up taking control of the senate again...by a vote or two...
But then you need to consider what that means: it’d be great if McConnell and republicans were back in charge of the agenda, the committee assignments, etc.
But they still wouldn’t have a filibuster proof majority. They still couldn’t get anything past the democrats- or past president Biden’s signature.
And so, retaking the u-s senate in fall isn’t as important as retaking the house. We just need a ‘blocker’ on this radical, Biden/democrat agenda. And we’ll almost certainly have it.
With republicans in charge of the senate, aside from some committees launching investigations into joe and hunter Biden, or the FBI raid on Mar A Lago, there’s not a lot a republican senate could accomplish, anyway.
So-mitch wasn’t stating anything that isn’t already apparent. The map wasn’t good for republicans and a few clunkers candidates-could-keep us from retaking the senate...
But it is, apparently, the fact that he said it that had some people upset. It’s the type of thing that you don’t say when you are in leadership. You never sound ‘defeatist’....and Mitch did.
It was a mistake for him to say it.
I think tucker, Hannity, and Mollie Hemmingway all made the point that-well Mitch-as the head of the senate-you and your team should be in those states, then, working to make these men better candidates, and working to help their campaigns.
That’s also true.
Mitch and his political team still have three months to turn these races around by focusing on the disasters and failures of Joe Biden and this congress full of extremist and wrong-headed democrats...
So, start doing it, instead of focusing on the personal shortcomings of some of the candidates that you, Mitch, think are clunkers.
He and DC strategists should be helping Hershel Walker define Raphael Warnock as the radical grifter that he is...
And should be propping up dr. Oz as the ‘adult’ and the ‘successful candidate’ in that race in Pennsylvania.
I have literally never seen a worse candidate than this John Fetterman clown, and somehow, Oz is still losing to him.
Good grief. Get a team in there-and straighten it out.
Because-one thing we know-is that Joe Biden and his performance will continue to drag down these democrats. 73 percent of Americans say the country is on the wrong track.
If you Mitch can’t win in this atmosphere, it’s time for him to retire.
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