Jay Weber show Transcript 2-15-22 7:10am
I created a bit of an unexpected stir among listeners and GOP insiders when I stated what -I thought-was well known yesterday: Donald Trump-has not-endorsed Tim Ramthun for governor.
I had listeners emailing all afternoon: everything from- what do you mean?
To- Ramthun’s going to be the immediate favorite because of trump’s endorsement. You don’t know what you’re talking about...etc.
Folks, Donald Trump has not endorsed assemblyman Ramthun for governor. The two shared -what was- a very exciting call for the Ramthun family. And during that call, President Trump endorsed the mission that rep. Ramthun is on to overturn the 2020 electoral college vote here...
But...Donald Trump-did not-endorse Ramthun. And i know that because I’ve heard from several sitting-and former- Wisconsin republicans who have told me that -in trump’s mind-he hasn’t given it.
I’ve been assured that several key Wisconsin republicans have been urging trump not to endorse Ramthun because he won’t win against Evers, and likely won’t win the nomination.
Why?
(Again, this is where I just need to be honest)-
Because virtually everyone who has dealt with him in the State Capitol thinks Ramthun is kooky.
And I’m just passing along what I’ve been told, but it matches with why-until recently-I had never heard of the guy.
Sure, i was aware he was a lawmaker in this pool of them in the assembly, but i had never had interactions with him, nor heard him referenced by other lawmakers or party operatives out in the counties. Who is Tim Ramthun?
Why have other republicans had such limited contact with him?
Because he’s kind of nutty, Jay.
Is the answer.
And so, anyone trump cares to ask, here in WI, is telling him: a Ramthun endorsement is not a good bet, and if we know anything about Donald Trump, we know he likes to win. We know that he takes great pride in how so many of his endorsements win their races.
And-
And-he knows how powerful his endorsement can be. And so, Donald Trump, especially in Wisconsin here, can play ‘king maker’ this year.
Trump’s endorsement holds so much sway that if he gives it to Ramthun, it might just be enough to elevate him over the other candidates in the primary, sure.
But the strong belief is that he couldn’t then win the general election against Evers. Not when most voters would only know him as ‘the conspiracy theorist’.
And so, no, president trump has not made an endorsement in the governor’s race yet.
And if Ramthun is under that illusion and gets months down the road here, on the campaign trail, only to have trump endorse someone else, Tim Ramthun is going to look like an ass.
And so, that’s the warning I’d put on that assumption: don’t assume that Donald Trump is going to-at some point-endorse Ramthun. He might. But-it’s not a guarantee.
In fact- there are so many unexpected new twists in this GOP primary race that it’s a good time to get into them-and alert the WISN listeners to it.
I see a few big developments-
One of which is Ramthun, and the ramifications of the way he’s apparently going to focus his campaign. I’ll get into that in a minute.
And then we’ll need to talk about another big development that -sooner or later-someone’s got to talk about, and it might as well be me: the fact that, after a year of trying to get a jump on everyone else and make her nomination inevitable, Rebecca Kleefisch still hasn’t sealed the deal.
I have said on a few different occasions that my gut feeling pointed to this: I’m just not seeing the excitement or support for her among the county leaders and party grassroots or ‘rubber chicken dinner’ crowd.
And now it’s clear: after a year of impressive effort, for some reason, Rebecca Kleefisch -still-hasn’t caught on with voters and therefore, still hasn’t sealed this deal.
If you want rock-solid proof of that-I’ll give it in the next segment, when i talk about the three- three- powerful, monied, outsiders who are now seriously considering getting into this race.
Why would they be considering it?
Because they’ve done their own calling around to party insiders and operatives, and have probably done their own polling, to suggest that support for Kleefish is soft.
But first let’s finish up with my other ‘unorthodox’ thought on Ramthun.
One i talked about yesterday, after he kicked off his campaign this weekend by featuring Mike Lindell, and their big message to the crowd was that we can -still- reinstall Donald Trump as president, if only Robin Vos and the WI GOP had the guts to do it.
Folks. No. We can’t.
Ramthun’s -deeply held belief here-is just wrong.
Top lawyers have looked at it. Several Ramthun’s fellow party operatives and lawmakers have looked at it: we cannot, at this point, take Wisconsin’s electors away from Biden and give them to trump and/or restore the trump presidency.
It can’t be done.Some of you got to let it go.
But that was a revelation for me: I assumed Ramthun would run on a more generic message related to voter fraud and the outrages of 2020. I didn’t think his campaign would be we can still reverse the last presidential election.
Because this-really is-moving into nutty territory.
And so, as i said yesterday:
If Ramthun is going to run on 2020 fraud, that's one thing.
If he is going to run by insisting that Trump can still be re-installed as president, that's something else, entirely.
And that campaign won't get much traction.
And it changes the equation on the entire primary race. My initial take was-Ramthun getting in helps Kleefisch, because Kevin Nicholson and Tim Ramthun will now fight over the ‘anti-establishment’ crowd.
But if Ramthun is going to run on extreme conspiracy theories- then I see it playing out a different way.
Then, suddenly, a middle lane has been cleared out for Kevin Nicholson between ‘establishment, Vos supporting’ Rebecca Kleefisch, and ‘nutty conspiracy theorist’ Tim Ramthun, and the guy who might look most appealing to Wisconsin’s conservative voters could be- Kevin Nicholson.
Because there is-no doubt- an anti-establishment vibe motivating the GOP voters in Wisconsin, this year.
Rightly or wrongly-they want to put a lot of blame and baggage onto speaker robin Vos and the sitting lawmakers.
I have explained several times now why I believe that anger is largely unwarranted and misplaced. But it’s real in the grassroots.
There have been what-now? Six? Six county republican parties that have voted to ask Vos to resign.
There will, no doubt, be more. The frustration speaks to an ‘outsider’ vibe this year. And if Nicholson is the one blasting Vos and Kleefisch as insiders, but is a more reasonable messenger than Ramthun, then Nicholson could be in the ‘right lane’.
And if Kevin Nicholson was to ask my advice, I’d say ‘adjust your message a bit to at least acknowledge the accomplishments of Vos, LeMahieu and these lawmakers over the last decade, because most gop voters-do not-see them as villains. They like them and have voted them into office.
But- otherwise, Nicholson could be helped by Ramthun getting into the race as a contrast.
Ramthun’s entry has -created-a middle lane for Nicholson.
It could have frustrated voters saying, okay, Nicholson isn’t Kleefisch....and he’s also not...that guy over there who’s touring with the ‘my pillow guy’ and talking nutty....
But there are a few curve balls that could yet be tossed into this race. Including an-actual-trump endorsement...
And- now three. Three other powerful and monied men who are seriously considering running because they know that- after a year of trying- Kleefisch hasn’t sealed the deal...
And if she hasn’t by now?
These men all know it’s an opportunity because they have all run before.
How’s that for a tease to get you to stick around?
Jay Weber show Transcript 2-15-22 7:40am
If you are just joining us, I am in the middle of laying out the most complete and honest take of what’s going on in the GOP primary race, given that there have been two or three major developments:
One is Timothy Ramthun joining the race on the belief that he’s got Donald Trump’s endorsement, when he doesn’t yet.
The second is Ramthun deciding to run on the kook fringe, which opens a lane for Kevin Nicholson that makes him look like a ‘reasonable outsider’ by contrast.
And the third is that at least three other men with some political gravitas in Wisconsin are seriously considering entering this race because they see a situation in which-after a year of trying, Rebecca Keefisch still hasn’t really ‘sealed the deal’ with either party insiders or the grassroots voters.
And this is where i want to pick up. I’d call it a ‘big deal’ that this far into this Kleefisch effort- she hasn’t scared these others away.
It suggests to me that they have been doing their own extensive calling around, and very likely their own polling, to get a snapshot of this race.
These aren’t men who have never been to a political rodeo before.
A few of their names have been mentioned before- weeks or months ago- and the fact that they appear to be-more interest in running- rather than having been discouraged from doing so- speaks volumes to me.
Which three, Jay- which three?
The three men who-according to my sources- are doing far more than just ‘thinking’ about it are Eric Hovde, a businessman from Madison, Tommy Thompson, who I’ve been assured by numerous Thompson insiders is ‘not fooling’. He’s taking a real, hard, long look at it because-he knows-Kleefisch is showing soft support-
And- I’ll toss a new name in the mix. For the first time, out of the blue. Late in the game. Former senate candidate and WI businessman Tim Michel’s is giving it a serious look.
I am told that well placed insiders across Wisconsin are getting calls from friends of Tim Michel’s, feeling them out on a possible run.
Michel’s ran for senate in 2004 and lost to Russ Feingold. He runs a construction firm in Brownsville and has looked at running in previous years. He’s got his people calling around.
I’d say he’s more of a long shot, of swooping in and upsetting the Kleefisch/Nicholson showdown, but he’s clearly interested.
Eric Hovde is also an interesting situation, given that he looked at running last year. Kind of...felt everyone out. I believe he is doing his own polling. And keeps coming back around, appearing to be more interested in joining the race each time.
He wouldn’t be doing that, unless his polling and consultants weren’t telling him that Kleefisch’s support is soft.
And the reason i spend time on all of this on-air today is not just to float new rumors.
It is because all three of these men, Thompson, Hovde, and Michel’s, have all run for office before. All know what it takes. They are all smart businessmen. And are all smart enough to be careful in any approach to a run.
I cannot believe that Thompson and Hovde, at least, aren’t doing their own polling.
And nothing in their numbers, nor in the conversations that they are having with other Wisconsin insiders, is scaring them away.
Instead- weeks later- they appear to be more interested than ever.
They certainly haven’t been dissuaded from running. Meanwhile, Tim Michel’s comes out of the blue. Hmmm.
It confirms my belief that- after a year of being highly organized and hiring impressive people and locking up noteworthy endorsements early, like Jim Sensenbrenner and the WMC, Rebecca Kleefisch is still vulnerable to a primary challenge.
And this ‘anti-establishment’ mood this year, isn’t helping her.
Remember-Kevin Nicholson got 43 percent of the vote in his primary run against Leah Vukmir.He ran against the party’s handpicked candidate once, and nearly matched her.
And sure, Tommy Thompson is 80, but my sources tell me that the reason he started considering a run in the first place, weeks ago, is that tommy was hearing the same sort of thing I’ve been hearing: a notable lack of support, or excitement, for Kleefisch among long-time party insiders.
I think Kleefisch is still the overall ‘voter favorite’ if it’s a race between just the announced candidates. Her, Nicholson, Ramthun and Wickman. I have no idea how one of these other men entering would shake up the race.
I am now suggesting that Ramthun’s entry has created a lane for Nicholson that didn’t really exist last week.
I assumed that Tim Ramthun was going to run on a somewhat credible version of a stolen election and a need for campaign reform.
But after he kicked off his campaign with Mike Lindell, and the insistence that we can -still- reinstall Donald Trump as president, if only robin Vos and the WI GOP had the guts to do it- I’m reconsidering his place in this race.
And if Ramthun is going to run on the kook fringe, it makes Nicholson attractive-by comparison-as the Madison outsider who isn’t the kook.
Wisconsin’s 2020 electoral votes-cannot be taken away from Biden now-and given to trump. It can’t and won’t be done. Take a moment to deal with that hard truth, if you must, Ramthun fans, but it’s the simple truth.
And blaming his fellow Madison lawmakers for not doing something that they -cannot do- is kooky and counterproductive.
I’ll tell you the truth if no one else will.
The other thing is, (I may as well quickly go over this again)
It looks to me like Timothy Ramthun is running on the assumption that Donald Trump has endorsed him.
Trump has not.
And I created a bit of an angry stir among listeners yesterday when i stated that on social media, because i assumed everyone knew it.
If you didn’t, my friends: Donald trump-has not-endorsed Tim Ramthun for governor.
He could in the future. Or maybe not.
I know from several sources-including wispolitics.com-that after trump had that chummy phone call with Ramthun- other Wisconsin republicans called trump and his team members and said- be careful with this guy. He’s not likely to win the nom, much less beat Evers.
And Donald Trump wants his endorsed candidates-to win.
Meanwhile, the Ramthun-for-governor campaign is off and running, under the ‘assumed umbrella’ of trump support.
Don’t assume it. Donald trump-did not-endorse Ramthun in that phone call between them.
And as i said on social media yesterday: if Ramthun is under the illusion that Donald Trump endorsed him, and gets months into this campaign, only to have trump endorse someone else out of the blue later, Tim Ramthun is going to look like an ass. It would really be embarrassing.
If you missed this- retired general Michael Flynn had given his endorsement to newcomer Johnathan Wickman in this same primary, but then, on Saturday, gave it to Ramthun in a recorded message played for the crowd.
So-does that mean Flynn endorses Ramthun? Or Wickman? Or both now?
It was a little embarrassing for Johnathan Wickman.
Can you imagine the embarrassment for Ramthun if three months from now- Donald Trump endorses Nicholson? Or Hovde? Or someone else?
Oof. That’s a killer.
In fact, it’d kill any Ramthun campaign in its tracks. Wouldn’t it?
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