Jay Weber Show transcript 10/12 8:30am
So...Sunday appeared to be the day that the mainstream news outlets and their accomplices in the pundit class decided to officially declare that ‘trump cannot win’ this election.
They held out longer than they did in 2016, I’ll give them that, but folks- we are right back to the same place the MSM led the country in 2016, in insisting trump cannot win.
And this-absolutely-is another instance of the east coast echo chamber feeding off of each other. It is more evident than ever that there is a circular ‘follow the leader’ loop going on here, in NY and DC.
We are being told that the preponderance of ‘quality’ polls now shows Biden pulling away. We’ve got the left talking about ten, twelve, sixteen point leads for Joe Biden.
A drudge headline yesterday suggested Trump only has something like a fourteen percent chance of winning now- etc.
Ignore all of it.
I know it’s difficult if you are as invested in this race as most of us are-but you’ve got to ignore all of those polls. This is a far, far closer race, and of course trump could still win this.
What I see these pollsters getting wrong are not acknowledging the significant number of ‘silent’ Trump voters that are out there. They have been bullied into silence over the last four years, but do exist.
Remember, Reince Priebus put that at a three or four percentage point margin when we had him on last time.
I expected him to answer that the silent voter thing was a myth. Instead he said, oh no. Its real some sliver of people won’t talk to pollsters. Won’t share with their friends...etc.
So that’s the first thing these polls don’t measure.
But even more foolish-is how these network pollsters are weighting democrats versus republicans this year.
CNN, Fox news, ABC- name the poll that we’ve seen with some huge, double digit Biden lead now, and what you will find is that they are oversampling democrats by ten to fifteen points!
What i mean is- yes-there are more people in America who identify as democrats than republicans. But only slightly more. Its’ a few percentage points. It’s not ten or fifteen.
And yet, CNN, Fox, etc are using samples that are...oh...45 percent democrat versus 30 percent republican...
Well. That’s not a representative sample of the country!
If you don’t want to believe me- believe John Zogby who is a -democrat himself- but he’s a careful pollster, and he has this at a two point race.
John Zogby has Biden leading 49-47 nationally, with dead heats in all of the important swing states, and he explains why he-as a democrat-does not believe any of these other polls.
Joe Biden is not up by ten or sixteen points. That’s laughable. Zogby says -either this is deliberate because the activist lefties running the newsrooms want to discourage trump supporters...or it is simply their projection bias. They are projecting their own biases into their methodology.
Either way-these polls are not accurate.
So that’s John Zogby-democrat.
Meanwhile- the polling firm that the trump campaign is using to do its own internal polling says the same thing. I think that’s probably right, yes.
I can believe Biden is up by a few points, nationally, but that’s it. And when it comes to the things i have been talking about for six months to a year-that are likely to put trump over the top- none of that has changed.
We have a -huge-enthusiasm gap between the candidates here. Trump voters are amped up. Biden voters are mostly just voting against trump.
And yes- the hatred of this man can be very motivating, but in the end, all sorts of voters want to vote-for- something. You have all sorts of young people who are, frankly, discouraged by Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.
They know they are being told they got to vote, got to vote, but polls show all sorts of young people find no reason to vote for either candidate.
If they stay home in significant numbers, Biden loses.
Meanwhile- the Miami police dept. estimates that about 30-thousand cars participated in a pro-trump, anti-communist rally in Miami on Saturday. It was a Latinos for trump event, and in South Florida. Hundreds gathered in the nation’s capital for Saturday’s Blexit’s “Back the Blue” event.
Meanwhile, the Biden campaign had a difficult time organizing a ‘golf cart parade’ for Biden...in ‘the villages’.
Honestly. The had the old folks in the villages get out their golf carts and try to show their enthusiasm for Biden...and it was both funny and sad at the same time.
I just don’t see the energy on the left that Biden needs to win.
Then you have the gallop survey that shows about six in ten Americans say they are better off under trump than they were before.
This is the sort of question that used to be a traditional measure of whether a president was likely to get a second term:
And one failing of the trump campaign that i have been mentioning occasionally is- this exact thing: they have not asked that question, nor asked the American people to make a one-on-one comparison: what Trumps stands for, and has done for America...versus was Biden’s party stands for- and how they promise to ruin America if they get control again. They want to erase America and put something else in its place.
But the gallop survey shows that the bulk of the American people -do know-they are better off now, under Trump. Are they really going to vote against their own best interests, then?
One long-time truism that’s going to be tested in November is: it’s the economy, stupid.
Is it still the economy that primarily drives voters? It used to be. It’s still the top issue voters give to pollsters when they are asked.
And aside from the one in four voters who are the true-blue Kool aide drinkers on the left- no one really thinks that Joe Biden would be better for the American economy.
Come on. So-that’s an important factor.
Then there are the boosts in the black and Hispanic vote totals. We’ve talked about them ad museum...but if trump gets 12 percent of the black vote and 34 percent of the Latino vote-it’s nearly impossible for Joe Biden to win. The number of the suburban moms and white voters who would have to abandon trump in order to erase those new minority trump voters would be sizable.
It is for all of these reasons that i still see a trump win as the more likely outcome. And my gut is still telling me that this is going to be a decisive victory one way or the other: either these lefty pollsters are dead on, and Biden’s going to win comfortably....or...they are dead wrong...and trump is going to win comfortably.
That’s just want my gut is telling me.
And if I had to guess today, which scenario is the case? Instinct and evidence would have me guessing- trump victory. And I make that prediction in the face of all of the ‘this is over’ certainty, inside the east coast bubble.
I don’t believe it is.
photo credit: Getty