I believe a Trump victory is now more likely than not

Jay Weber Show transcript 9-9-20 6:10am

My friends...just as Axios and Politico and other left wing websites were running stories trying to ensure their readers that Joe Biden is still leading and has this race well-in-hand-

The Trump team was putting out seven different scenarios that would lead to a trump win on November third.

And obviously, I am biased, but I believe a Trump victory is now ‘more likely than not’-

I believe he is actually leading slightly in the important battleground states-and that his chances of re-election are better than 50/50.

This is as the number crunchers on the left side of the aisle still give Biden a 72 to 75 percent chance of winning.

They do so, based on national polls that still show Biden up by anywhere between two and ten points but those are both bogus, and useless.

They are bogus in the sense that-there is no way-that Joe Biden is leading Donald Trump by six to ten points in this race, nationally, anymore.

Not a chance.

We cannot have every important statewide poll showing a tightening race-and see no tightening nationwide.

That defies all logic.If the statewide races have tightened, the national polling has tightened.

But those national polls are useless, anyway, as I have been warning for months. This is 50 individual state-wide races, not one national election and in the battleground states- pretty much every state has seen a tightening.

The latest poll in Florida shows a tie.

The latest poll in Pennsylvania shows Biden up by two. That’s a statistical dead heat.

The latest polls in Michigan and Minnesota show a virtual dead heat.

This race has tightened...and given the so-called ‘shy voters’ who refuse to identify themselves as trump votersand the fact that these polls all ‘weight’ for a democrat advantage that isn’t nearly as large as it used to be-

And my belief is that Donald Trump could probably rack up another win if the election were held today...and with a few more electoral votes than he got in 2016.

And this is with Biden at his high watermark. His numbers should continue to erode, so long as the economy keeps improving and we don’t have any massive second wave of the covid-19.

So...as the lefty pundits and statisticians were trying to come up with convincing ways that Biden still has this race well-in -hand,

The trump campaign said...oh, no. we can win seven different ways, at least.

They even have a landslide scenario that really drove some lefties crazy:oh, trump is not going to win by a landslide...come on...

That scenario is interesting because it is the first time i have seen a winning scenario that-does not include- winning Florida...in three decades.

For the last 30 years, every winning GOP map has had to include the Republican winning Florida. Florida was certainly the lynch-pin for any George W. Bush win...and has been for every winning GOP scenario since.

Here’s the Trump team saying we could win the rust belt states and we couldn’t need Florida.

And before you scoff that that, lefties, realize that the campaign isn’t suggesting that they would have to win any states that they didn’t win last time in the upper Midwest.

This ‘no Florida’ scenario has trump winning Wi, Mi, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Well-he won all of those states last time.so this ‘outrageous’ scenario in which trump loses Florida but still wins a second term...would only mean trump wins the same upper Midwestern states that he won last time.

Now consider that these network polls that over-weight for Democrats show Florida tied. Trump will probably win Florida again, anyway.

And- realize-that Minnesota is now absolutely in play. Polls there show the race tied. Trump could win Minnesota and add to any rust belt advantage.

It doesn’t have to be a wild scenario...to see trump winning a second term...and yet the entirety of the east coast media is acting like it’s an impossibility.

Why?Trump won once...and by something like 70 electoral votes.

As Mollie Hemmingway of the federalist puts it: it’s déjà vu all over again.

Once again-we are being told trump can’t win.

So- Hemmingway is going to use this goofy Real Clear Politics average which i hate...and she’s also not explaining why the numbers have changed so dramatically..

This number is an ‘average’ of polls that date back weeks-correct? And so if Biden was winning big a few weeks ago and now his leads have been cut in half- it means that the most recent polls added into the average are showing a very close race.

They’d have to be, in order to bring a month-long rolling average down so dramatically.

(It helps make my point on why the average is so stupid. why would you include old or bad data into an average of polls...when the question is: how is the race going-now?)

Well...three weeks ago. We had Biden up by ten...and so we got to average that in..


I will give you an, admittedly, gross analogy.

That’s like saying....I had diarrhea three weeks ago...so we got to consider that if we are going to analyses my fecal output -today.


No.The question is-how would things come out-today.The conditions in your colon have changed a lot in three weeks.Why are you reaching back to the diarrhea episode?

The question is: if the election were held-today- who’d win.Why average in what was going on three weeks ago and claim it’s giving you a clearer picture of where the race is?

Isn’t that dumb? That’s the Real Clear Politics average that these dc insiders laud over and reference repeatedly.

Bottom line: today’s polling shows a razor close race in the battleground states, and that’s with polls that overweight and over-sample for democrats.

But-for clarification- Mollie Hemmingway’s point is:even the lefty polls show this race has changed-and rather dramatically-over the last two or three weeks.

And if you look at the 5 to 8 battleground states where this will be won or lost- I like where trump is sitting...given everything that has occurred over the last four to six months.

And if Trump wins Florida and Pennsylvania-he doesn’t even need Michigan and Wisconsin, assuming he can win all of the other states he won in 2016-which is very likely.

This claim that Trump can’t win- or if he wins- it’s not legitimate...is bologna and yet-it is what the accomplice media is going to serve up between now and Election Day.

About a month ago, already, I pointed out how the democrats and their accomplices in the media had launched an effort to convince the American people that any Trump win was fraudulent and they have only doubled down on that since.

We have the entire corporate media complex-as Hemmingway calls them-reinforcing the idea that even if trump wins a close race-it’s stolen.

I have watched with some amusement as the NY times and wash post have put out analysis after analysis in which they ‘run scenarios’.

They are running computer models on what election night might look like, and how things might break out.

Folks-in every set of scenarios- they range from ‘a slight win for trump that might signal it was a stolen election...to a Biden landslide.’

To be clear- these are so-called electoral experts- planning for every plausible outcome in November and what they consider ‘plausible’ is only a range between ‘trump stole the election- or- Biden landslide.’

They cannot envision a legitimate trump win. It is-literally-not a possibility in their computer modeling.

Now-come on.

And I’m serious.

Some of you might have seen these ‘expert models’. Here’s what could happen on election night.

I have yet to see these lefty computer geeks or their accomplices in the media report on scenarios in which trump wins the race by a comfortable margin or a landslide.

And yet-the likelier scenario-is that trump wins a second term.


He -is- an incumbent, after all and he’s got a solid record. His approval ratings are better than bush’s at this point and tied with where Obama’s were. They both got second terms.

The historical trends certainly point to a second term.

And yet, we are supposed to believe that there is-no way- trump can win this legitimately.

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